Method and system for estimating manufacturing costs

• US 6,775,647 B1
• Filed: 03/02/2000
• Issued: 08/10/2004
• Est. Priority Date: 03/02/2000
• Status: Expired due to Fees

• Current Assignee: Advanced Technology Services, Inc.
• Original Assignee: Advanced Technology Services, Inc.
• Inventors: Evans, Jerry William, Ludwig, Arthur L., Mehta, Paul P.
• Primary Examiner(s): Broda, Esq., Samuel
• Application Number:
  US09/517,023
• Time in Patent Office: 1,622 Days
• Field of Search: 703/1-2, 703/7, 700/97, 705/400, 345/420
• US Class Current: 703/7
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/06 Buying, selling or leasing transactions

Abstract

A method and system estimates manufacturing costs for conventional and advanced materials and processes based on a process-oriented approach. A computer system comprises an input display for selecting one or more designs and one or more design parameters. Cost models are based upon process-oriented manufacturing cost estimates for a plurality of designs utilizing materials and manufacturing of processes. Software is programmed to receive selected designs and selected design parameters from the input display and pass the selected designs and design parameters to the cost models. An output display shows the manufacturing costs estimated by the cost models for the selected designs and design parameters. A manufacturing process flow simulation model highlights and quantifies the magnitude of the manufacturing process cost drivers.

Claims

1. A computer system, comprising:

a) an input display for selecting one or more designs and one or more design parameters, wherein said parameters comprise one or more dimensions and part weight;

b) one or more cost models operative to estimate manufacturing costs and comprising algorithms calculated from a plurality of discrete points, said cost models being based upon process-oriented manufacturing cost estimates for a plurality of designs utilizing advanced materials, wherein said cost estimates are based upon viable sequences of manufacturing operations for the designs and industry standard and process-specific cost information regarding each manufacturing operation to be performed in the sequence including information relating to the labor hours for each movement made by an operator to carry out each operation, wherein said cost estimates are not based upon company-specific information, wherein said cost estimates are categorized by families subdivided into categories having the same manufacturing process, and wherein said advanced materials comprise materials for which no historical manufacturing cost data is available for use of the materials in the designs;

c) software programmed to receive selected designs and selected design parameters from the input display and pass the selected designs and selected design parameters to the cost models; and

d) an output display operative to display the manufacturing costs estimated by the cost models for the selected designs and selected design parameters.

2. The computer system of claim 1, wherein the plurality of designs comprises a plurality of design configurations.

3. The computer system of claim 1, wherein the plurality of designs comprises a plurality of design variations.

4. A method for estimating the manufacturing costs for a part design, the method comprising the steps of:

a) receiving a part design having advanced hardware, wherein said advanced hardware is hardware for which no historical manufacturing cost data is available for the part design; and

b) estimating the manufacturing costs for the design using a process-oriented approach, wherein the cost estimate is based upon a viable sequence of manufacturing operations and industry standard data and process-specific cost information regarding each manufacturing operation.

5. A method for assessing the cost impact for a part design, comprising the steps of:

a) estimating the manufacturing costs for a part design in accordance with claim 4;

b) varying the part design configuration, dimensions, or materials to have a new part design, and repeating step (a) for the new part design; and

c) repeating step (b) to determine the cost impact for varying the part design.

6. A computer readable medium, comprising software that when executed causes a computer to perform the method of claim 4.

7. A method for estimating the manufacturing costs for a part design, the method comprising the steps of:

a) determining a cost model domain;

b) generating a database of process-oriented manufacturing cost estimates based at least in part on;

i) advanced material costs, wherein said advanced material is a material for which no historical manufacturing cost data is available for the part design;

ii) a viable manufacturing sequence having a plurality of operations, and

iii) the costs per operation based upon industry standard data and process-specific information regarding each operation to be performed in the manufacturing sequence;

c) categorizing the database of cost estimates in accordance with the model domain so as to create categories of the database;

d) dividing the categories of the database by manufacturing processes which represent process cost drivers;

e) using regression analysis to build one or more cost model algorithms based on the database of cost estimates wherein cost is a function of parametric values, and wherein the cost model algorithms identify and quantify the process cost drivers;

f) determining one or more parametric values describing the part design;

g) inputting the parametric values for the part design to the one or more cost model algorithms;

h) estimating the manufacturing costs for the part design based on the results from the cost model algorithms; and

i) presenting a manufacturing sequence for the part design.

8. A computer readable medium, comprising software that when executed causes a computer to perform the method of claim 7.

9. A method for generating a cost model for use in estimating manufacturing costs, the method comprising:

determining a model domain by establishing the range of possible variations to be encompassed, the variations including variations in part features and variations in materials, the materials including advanced materials, wherein said advanced materials are materials which lack historical manufacturing cost data for parts in the model domain;

generating a database of cost estimates by;

mapping the part features for each variation in the domain to their associated manufacturing processes; and

evaluating the labor hours required for each of the manufacturing processes for each variation using industry standard estimation data;

categorizing the cost estimates into families according to the type of part; and

building cost model equations from the cost estimates, the cost model equations relating part features to cost.

10. The method as recited in claim 9, further comprising dividing the families by manufacturing processes that depend upon material type.

11. The method as recited in claim 9, wherein the cost estimates comprise discrete point estimates and wherein the cost model equations are built through statistical curve fitting of the discrete point estimates.