Traffic estimation

• US 6,810,356 B1
• Filed: 08/30/2002
• Issued: 10/26/2004
• Est. Priority Date: 08/30/2002
• Status: Expired due to Term

• Current Assignee: Microsoft Technology Licensing LLC (Microsoft Corporation)
• Original Assignee: Advertising.com
• Inventors: Raines, Taylor, Garcia-Franco, Jose Carlos, Kamprath, Michael F., Luenberger, Rob
• Primary Examiner(s): Hoff, Marc S.
• Assistant Examiner(s): Charioui, Mohamed
• Application Number:
  US10/231,026
• Time in Patent Office: 788 Days
• Field of Search: 702/122, 702/179, 702/180, 702/181, 702/182, 702/183, 702/186, 702/187, 702/188, 709/224, 709/218, 709/223, 709/225, 709/226, 709/230, 709/234, 709/249, 370/253, 379/88.17, 379/265.09, 379/133
• US Class Current: 702/179
• CPC Class Codes: H04L 41/142 using statistical or mathematical methods
• CPC Class Codes: H04L 41/147 for predicting network behaviour
• CPC Class Codes: H04L 43/0876 Network utilisation, e.g. volume of load or congestion level
• CPC Class Codes: H04L 43/16 Threshold monitoring

Abstract

Methods, systems, and articles of manufacture of the present invention may assist in planning, execution, and evaluation of advertising campaigns on the Internet. Particularly, methods, systems, and articles of manufacture of the present invention may help evaluate and/or predict traffic volume on the Internet. An exemplary method for predicting traffic may comprise receiving historical traffic data for a location, and computing a prediction of traffic volume for a particular time at the location based on a linear relationship in the historical traffic data.

Claims

1. A method for predicting traffic, comprising:

receiving historical traffic data for a location;

computing a prediction of traffic volume for a particular time at the location based on a linear relationship in the historical traffic data;

observing traffic volume data from the location;

comparing the computed prediction against the observed traffic volume data; and

computing a predictability score for the location from the comparison.

2. The method of claim 1, further comprising:

comparing the predictability score for the location with a predictability score of another location.

3. The method of claim 2, further comprising:

generating a predictability map of the locations based on at least the comparison of the predictability scores for the locations.

4. The method of claim 2, further comprising:

selecting at least one of the locations based on at least the comparison between the predictability scores; and

conducting an advertising campaign at the selected one or more locations.

5. A system for predicting traffic, comprising:

a processor,

wherein the processor is configured to perform the method according to claim 1.

6. A recording medium readable by a processor, wherein the recording medium contains instructions to configure the processor to perform the method according to claim 1.

7. A method for predicting traffic, comprising:

receiving historical traffic data for a location;

identifying outlying data in the historical traffic data that does not meet at least one predetermined parameter;

substituting different data for the outlying data; and

computing a prediction of traffic volume for a particular time at the location based on a linear relationship in the historical traffic data.

8. The method of claim 7, wherein the predetermined parameter includes an estimate of a standard deviation of the historical traffic data.

9. The method of claim 7, wherein substituting different data comprises:

computing the different data such that the different data meets the at least one predetermined parameter.

10. A system for predicting traffic, comprising:

a processor,

wherein the processor is configured to perform the method according to claim 7.

11. A recording medium readable by a processor, wherein the recording medium contains instructions to configure the processor to perform the method according to claim 7.

12. A method for predicting traffic, comprising:

receiving historical traffic data for a location, wherein the historical traffic data comprises historical hourly traffic data; and

computing a prediction of hourly traffic volume for a particular hour at the location based on a linear relationship in the historical traffic data, using at least the historical hourly traffic data from the same particular hour over a plurality of days.

13. A system for predicting traffic, comprising:

a processor,

wherein the processor is configured to perform the method according to claim 12.

14. A recording medium readable by a processor, wherein the recording medium contains instructions to configure the processor to perform the method according to claim 12.

15. A method for predicting traffic, comprising:

receiving historical traffic data for a location;

identifying outlying data in the historical traffic data that does not meet at least one predetermined parameter;

removing the outlying data from the historical traffic data; and

computing a prediction of traffic volume for a particular time at the location based on a linear relationship in the historical traffic data,

wherein the predetermined parameter includes an estimate of a standard deviation of the historical traffic data.

16. A system for predicting traffic, comprising:

a processor,

wherein the processor is configured to perform the method according to claim 15.

17. A recording medium readable by a processor, wherein the recording medium contains instructions to configure the processor to perform the method according to claim 15.

18. A method for predicting traffic, comprising:

receiving historical traffic data for a location;

filtering the historical traffic data using at least one of a threshold level and a mathematical distribution; and

computing a prediction of traffic volume for a particular time at the location based on a linear relationship in the historical traffic data.

19. A system for predicting traffic, comprising:

a processor,

wherein the processor is configured to perform the method according to claim 18.

20. A recording medium readable by a processor, wherein the recording medium contains instructions to configure the processor to perform the method according to claim 18.

21. A method for predicting traffic, comprising:

receiving historical traffic data for a location;

computing a prediction of traffic volume for a particular time at the location based on a linear relationship in the historical traffic data; and

filtering the prediction of traffic volume.

22. A system for predicting traffic, comprising:

a processor,

wherein the processor is configured to perform the method according to claim 21.

23. A recording medium readable by a processor, wherein the recording medium contains instructions to configure the processor to perform the method according to claim 21.