Space weather prediction system and method
First Claim
1. A method for predicting space weather comprising:
- providing first input data to a first prediction/identification module, the first prediction/identification module comprising a first system that generates first space weather related output data based upon the input data, and including data specifying a first set of starting conditions specifying when the system is to function;
providing second input data to a second prediction/identification module, the second prediction/identification module comprising a second system that generates space weather related output data based upon the input data, and including data specifying a second set of starting conditions specifying when the system is to function;
wherein at least some of the second input data for the second prediction/identification module is derived from the output data generated by the first prediction/identification module.
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Abstract
A system and method of forecasting space weather (at Earth or another location) based on identifying complex patterns in solar, interplanetary, or geophysical data. These data may include current or historical measurements and/or modeled data (predicted or simulated). Data patterns (both non-event and event-related) are identified (even when another event is occurring). Such patterns may vary with recent/cyclic variations in solar (e.g. solar max/min), interplanetary, or geophysical activity. Embodiments are built around: (1) templates, (2) expert systems, (3) neural networks, (4) hybrid systems comprising combinations of (1), (2) and/or (3), and multimodal intelligent systems. Forecasts are customized and/or updated as new data arise and as systems are dynamically modified (e.g. via feedback between system parts). Numerical or other indexes are generated representing: forecasts, associated confidence levels, etc. The invention predicts events/non-events and/or other values or parameters associated with space weather (e.g. Dst, event onset time, duration, etc.).
38 Citations
14 Claims
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1. A method for predicting space weather comprising:
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providing first input data to a first prediction/identification module, the first prediction/identification module comprising a first system that generates first space weather related output data based upon the input data, and including data specifying a first set of starting conditions specifying when the system is to function;
providing second input data to a second prediction/identification module, the second prediction/identification module comprising a second system that generates space weather related output data based upon the input data, and including data specifying a second set of starting conditions specifying when the system is to function;
wherein at least some of the second input data for the second prediction/identification module is derived from the output data generated by the first prediction/identification module. - View Dependent Claims (3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8)
for at least one of the first and second modules, assessing the accuracy of the generated output data. -
4. The method of claim 1 further comprising the step of
for at least one of the first and second modules, weighting the generated output data. -
5. The method of claim 1 wherein at least one of the first and second modules further includes data specifying resultant actions to be performed based upon the generated output data.
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6. The method of claim 5 further comprising the steps of
for at least one of the first and second modules, weighting the generated output data; - and
wherein one of the resultant actions in the data specifying resultant actions causes a change in results generated by the means for weighting.
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7. The method of claim 5 further comprising the step of notifying a user of an impending space weather event as one of the resultant actions in the data specifying resultant actions.
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8. The method of claim 1 wherein the first and second input data comprises one or more primary data values that are the result of a measurement and one or more secondary data values that are generated and output by one of the modules.
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2. A method for predicting space weather comprising:
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providing first input data to a first prediction/identification module, the first prediction/identification module comprising a first system that generates first space weather related output data based upon the input data, and including data specifying a first set of starting conditions specifying when the system is to function;
providing second input data to a second prediction/identification module, the second prediction/identification module comprising a second system that generates space weather related output data based upon the input data, and including data specifying a second set of starting conditions specifying when the system is to function;
wherein at least some of the starting conditions for the second prediction/identification module is derived from the output data of the first prediction/identification module.
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9. A method of predicting space weather comprising:
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providing first input data to a first of a plurality of cascaded prediction/identification modules, each module comprising a system that generates space weather related output data based upon input data, and including data specifying a set of starting conditions specifying when the system is to function;
wherein at least some of the input data for at least one of the prediction/identification modules is derived from the output data generated by another prediction/identification module.
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10. A method for notifying a user of space weather events comprising:
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providing predictions and identifications of space weather conditions to a notification module, the notification module including user data specifying a user'"'"'s susceptibilities to space weather events, means for receiving the predictions and identifications of the space weather conditions, data specifying notification rules for actions to be performed in response to the received predictions and identifications of space weather conditions; and
performing the actions specified in the notification rules based on the provided predictions and identifications thereby notifying the user of the received predictions and identifications of space weather conditions. - View Dependent Claims (11, 12, 13, 14)
performing mitigating actions in response to the received predictions and identifications of space weather conditions.
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Specification