Demand planning for configure-to-order and building blocks-based market environment

• US 6,816,839 B1
• Filed: 05/04/2000
• Issued: 11/09/2004
• Est. Priority Date: 05/04/2000
• Status: Expired due to Fees

• Current Assignee: International Business Machines Corporation
• Original Assignee: International Business Machines Corporation
• Inventors: Hosking, Jonathan R., Lin, Grace Y., Gung, Roger R., Tajima, Akira
• Primary Examiner(s): Hafiz, Tariq R.
• Assistant Examiner(s): BOYCE, ANDRE D
• Application Number:
  US09/564,190
• Time in Patent Office: 1,650 Days
• Field of Search: 705/10, 705/7, 705/28, 705/29
• US Class Current: 705/7.31
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06 Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/087 Inventory or stock management, e.g. order filling, procurement or balancing against orders
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/0875 Itemisation or classification of parts, supplies or services, e.g. bill of materials
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0202 Market predictions or forecasting for commercial activities

Abstract

A method for demand planning of products. The method comprises the steps of constructing a configure-to-order operation/multiple building block environment; and, forecasting the demand of the building blocks within this environment for establishing an efficient supply chain management.

Claims

1. A computer implemented method for demand planning of products, the method comprising the steps of:

digitally constructing a configure-to-order operation/multiple building block environment;

digitally forecasting the demand of building blocks within the constructed building block environment using a top-down approach, which considers sales volume of a product family, and feature ratios of the building blocks;

digitally capturing dependencies among building blocks by combining methodologies of statistical forecast, categorical data analysis, and information theory;

digitally forecasting demand quantity of each product family using dependencies among building block families comprising a pairwise correlation between any two building block families;

digitally propagating an adjustment by tracing a spanning tree nodes of which correspond to building block families, by starting from a most dominant building block family as a root node of the spanning tree;

using mutual information as an index for the pairwise correlation;

fitting a joint distribution for the building blocks to be consistent with the pairwise correlation; and

establishing an efficient supply chain management.

2. A method according to claim 1, further comprising the step of normalizing feature ratios within a building block family.

3. A program storage device readable by a machine, tangibly embodying a program of instructions executable by the machine to perform method steps for demand planning of products, the method comprising the steps of:

constructing a configure-to-order operation/multiple building block environment;

forecasting the demand of building blocks within the constructed building block environment using a top-down approach, which considers sales volume of a product family, and feature ratios of the building blocks;

capturing dependencies among building blocks by combining methodologies of statistical forecast, categorical data analysis, and information theory;

forecasting demand quantity of each product family using dependencies among building block families comprising a pairwise correlation between any two building block families;

propagating an adjustment by tracing a spanning tree nodes of which correspond to building block families, by starting from a most dominant building block family as a root node of the spanning tree;

using mutual information as an index for the pairwise correlation;

fitting a joint distribution for the building blocks to be consistent with the pairwise correlation; and

establishing an efficient supply chain management.

4. The program storage device according to claim 3, wherein the program of instructions further comprising the step of normalizing feature ratios within a building block family.