Method and system for providing traffic and related information

• US 6,882,930 B2
• Filed: 06/26/2001
• Issued: 04/19/2005
• Est. Priority Date: 06/26/2000
• Status: Expired due to Fees

• Current Assignee: Stratech Systems Limited (In Liquidation) (The Stratech Group Ltd.)
• Original Assignee: Stratech Systems Limited (In Liquidation) (The Stratech Group Ltd.)
• Inventors: Karl, Charles, Van Leersum, Julian, Trayford, Ros
• Primary Examiner(s): ARTHUR JEANGLAUDE, GERTRUDE
• Application Number:
  US10/312,702
• Publication Number:
  US 20040038671A1
• Time in Patent Office: 1,393 Days
• Field of Search: 701117-118, 701/225, 340/907, 340/909
• US Class Current: 701/117
• CPC Class Codes: G08G 1/012 from other sources than vehicle or roadside beacons, e.g. mobile networks
• CPC Class Codes: G08G 1/096716 where the received information does not generate an automatic action on the vehicle control
• CPC Class Codes: G08G 1/096741 where the source of the transmitted information selects which information to transmit to each vehicle
• CPC Class Codes: G08G 1/096775 where the origin of the information is a central station
• CPC Class Codes: H04W 4/02 Services making use of location information
• CPC Class Codes: H04W 4/024 Guidance services
• CPC Class Codes: H04W 4/14 Short messaging services, e.g. short message services [SMS] or unstructured supplementary service data [USSD]

Abstract

The invention provides a system for providing traffic or related information including: a database storing historical traffic data being operable to receive substantially real time traffic data and associated data; means for integrating historical, real time and associated traffic data with respect to traveller profiles to produce customized forecasted traffic information with respect to those traveller profiles; and means for sending the customized forecasted traffic information to an intended recipient wherein the customized forecasted traffic information includes predicted travel delays for travel routes described in the traveller profiles.

Claims

1. A system for providing traffic-related information comprising:

a database storing historical traffic data and being operable to receive substantially real time traffic data and associated data;

means for deterministically integrating the historical and real time traffic and associated data with respect to at least one traveler profile to produce customized forecasted traffic information with respect to the at least one traveler profile; and

means for sending the customized forecasted traffic information to an intended recipient wherein the customized forecasted traffic information comprises at least a predicted travel delay for at least one travel route described in the at least one traveler profile,

wherein, if insufficient traffic data for a link of the travel route is present, the means for integrating is operable to use available data in respect of a further link in place of the insufficient traffic data on said link of said travel route in order to provide the predicted travel delay.

2. The system according to claim 1, wherein each of said travel route link and said further link include a traffic intersection, such that available traffic data in respect of the traffic intersection of said further link is used in place of insufficient traffic data in respect of the traffic intersection of said travel route link.

3. The system according to claim 2, wherein matching the suitability of said further link to said travel route link takes account of one or more of the following:

a) geometry of said intersections;

b) orientation of said intersections;

c) the relative DOS of said intersections;

d) historical daily averages for signal cycle times for said intersections;

e) distance of said intersections from locations of relatively high population density.

4. The system according to claim 1, wherein the intended recipient receives the customized forecasted traffic information for all traveler profiles and separates the information relating to each traveler profile for subsequent transmission to individual travelers according to their profile.

5. The system according to claim 1, wherein at least one individual traveler, having a traveler profile, has a remote terminal operable to receive transmitted customized forecasted traffic information.

6. The system according to claim 5, wherein the remote terminal is operable to transmit information to the database.

7. The system according to claim 5, wherein the remote terminal is a mobile phone.

8. The system according to claim 5, wherein customized forecasted traffic information is transmitted to a traveler prior to the commencement of a traveler'"'"'s journey.

9. The system according to claim 5, wherein customized forecasted traffic information is transmitted to a traveler during the traveler'"'"'s journey.

10. The system according to claim 5, including a traveler database for storing individual traveler profiles, the traveler profiles including data identifying the traveler and data relating to the travelers usual travel routes and usual time of commencement on those routes.

11. The system according to claim 9, wherein the traveler'"'"'s profile indicates the times that the traveler prefers to receive customized forecasted traffic information.

12. The system according to claim 10, wherein individual travelers are provided access to the traveler database and may alter data contained in the database relating to their profile.

13. The system according to claim 10, wherein the means for integrating historical, real time and associated traffic data are operable to:

a) determine a time series of average delays from historical data for links in a traffic network the time series extending over a predetermined period of time;

b) receive historical weather data and correlate that weather data with the historical traffic data and generating an average historical delay for the links during various weather conditions;

c) receive real time data relating to weather in the geographic region of the traffic network;

d) estimate the actual link delays that will occur on each of the traffic links for each of the time series based upon the received data; and

e) generate a prediction of the actual delay from a commencement node to a destination node of the traffic network by summing the respective link delays of the links along the travel route using the estimate for each link delay at the time the traveler is expected to commence travel along those links.

14. The system according to claim 13, wherein the integrating means determines seasonal trends in the historical traffic data relating to average link delays and removes those seasonal trends from the historical traffic data.

15. The system according to claim 13, wherein the integrating means estimates the actual traffic link delay that will occur for a link some time in the future by receiving real time traffic data relating to measured delays on traffic links and calculating the ratio of the most recently measured traffic link delay to the average historical link delay for the corresponding time step at which the measurement was taken and multiplying the average historical link delay for the link at a future time step with the previously established ratio thus generating an estimate of the actual link delay that will occur for the link at the time step in the future.

16. The system according to claim 15, wherein the integrating means generates an estimate of the actual traffic link delay that will occur for a link some time in the future for all traffic links of the network relevant to traveler profiles.

17. The system according to claim 16, wherein the integrating means estimates travel time on a particular link on the basin of prior links to said particular link that have been traversed and taking into account the delay involved with traversing said prior links and the intersections traversed.

18. The system according to claim 13, wherein the integrating means determines predictions of actual delay that will occur for travel routes according to traveler profiles at the times required by each respective traveler profile.

19. The system according to claim 13, wherein the integrating means receives data relating to events such as school holiday periods, summer holiday periods, public holidays and weekends and correlate that data with the historical traffic data.

20. The system according to claim 13, wherein the integrating means includes a model of that data generated by performing a lease squares fit analysis to determine an average historical traffic delay using the function:

$\hspace{1em}<br><br>\begin{array}{c}\mathrm{Delay}=<br><br>a_0+a_1*\mathrm{Dr}/\left(a_2+\mathrm{Dr}\right)+a_3*R/\left(a_4+R\right)+\\ <br><br>a_5*\mathrm{Sh}+a_6*\mathrm{Ch}+a_7*\mathrm{We}+a_8*\mathrm{Ph}+a_9*{\mathrm{Ph}}^{-}+a_{10}*{\mathrm{Ph}}^{+}\end{array}$

where

Dr represents period since last rain

R represents rainfall in last predetermined period

Sh represents school holiday period

Ch represents common summer holiday period

Wc represents a weekend or weekday

Ph represents a public holiday

Ph⁻

represents a day before a public holiday

Ph⁻

represents a day after a public holiday.

21. The system according to claim 13, wherein estimates of link delays caused by incidents are received and stored for subsequent access by the integrating means for summing with the historically expected link delays when predicted travel delays are generated.

22. The system according to claim 13, including a means for determining an optimal path of travel through a traffic network, the means being:

a) operable to determine link travel time for each traffic link in a network; and

b) operable to implement a path searching method to determine the optimal path between two nodes in the traffic network, the optimal path being the series of connected traffic links between the two nodes resulting in the least expected delay.

23. The system according to claim 22, wherein the determination of a link travel time for a traffic link in a network is obtained by summing the mean free travel time for that link and the average time required to negotiate the immediate upstream intersection connected to that link.

24. The system according to claim 23, wherein the traffic links with vehicle flow rates less than the saturation flow rate, the mean free travel speed is obtained by dividing the vehicle flow rate for that link by the vehicle concentration for that link, and the mean free travel time is obtained by dividing the distance of the link by the mean free travel speed.

25. The system according to claim 23, wherein the average time to negotiate an immediate upstream intersection is obtained from the traffic network'"'"'s traffic control system.

26. The system according to claim 22, wherein upon receiving a request to provide an optimal travel path through a traffic network, measured link delays most recently collected from traffic signal data are compared with historical link delay data and an estimate of the actual link delay data is generated for each traffic link in the network for an appropriate number of steps in the time series according to the traveler'"'"'s commencement and destination nodes in the network.

27. The system according to claim 26, where, in the even that real time link delay data for a traffic link is not available, historical link delay data is used.

28. The system according to claim 26, where there is insufficient historical traffic data for links in a traffic network to generate historical link delay data;

the means for integrating historical and real time data uses available traffic data for other links in the same and/or different network as estimates for those various links for which there is no data available.

29. The system according to claim 28, wherein the traffic links for which no traffic data is available are matched to other traffic links for which no traffic data is available, the matching process taking account of one or more of the following

a) the relative geometry of the traffic links;

b) the relative arrangement of the traffic links;

c) the relative capacity of the traffic links;

d) the relative alignment of the traffic links with locations of relatively high population density;

e) the relative DOS of the traffic links;

f) the relative distance of the traffic links from locations of relatively high population density.

30. The system according to claim 28, wherein traffic data available for a portion of a city or urban area is matched to another city or another urban area having similar traffic flow characteristics to the first mentioned city or urban area and no available traffic data, in order to estimate the traffic data in said another city or said another urban area.

31. A method of providing traffic-related information comprising the steps of:

a) storing historical, real time and associated traffic data in a database;

b) deterministically integrating said historical, real time and associated data with respect to a traveler profile to produce customized forecasted traffic information with respect to the traveler profile; and

c) sending the customized forecasted traffic information to an intended recipient wherein the customized forecasted traffic information comprises a predicted travel delay for a travel route described in the traveler profile;

wherein, if insufficient traffic data for a link of the travel route is present, the step of integrating comprises using available data in respect of a further link in place of the insufficient traffic data on said link of said travel route in order to provide the predicted travel delay.

32. The method according to claim 31, further comprising the step of, where each of said travel route link and said further link include a traffic intersection, using available traffic data in respect of the traffic intersection of said further link in place of insufficient traffic data in respect of the traffic intersection of said travel route link.

33. The method according to claim 32, wherein said step of using available traffic data takes account of one or more of the following:

a) geometry of said intersections;

b) orientation of said intersections;

c) the relative DOS of said intersections;

d) historical daily averages for signal cycle times for said intersections;

e) distance of said intersections from locations of relatively high population density.

34. The method according to claim 31, comprising the step of the intended recipient receiving the customized forecasted traffic information for all traveler profiles and separating the information relating to each traveler profile and transmitting the relevant traffic information to each individual traveler according to their profile.

35. The method according to claim 31, comprising the step of an individual traveler, having a traveler profile and a remote terminal, receiving customized forecasted traffic information on that terminal.

36. The method according to claim 35, wherein the remote terminal is operable to transmit information to the database, the method comprising the step of an individual traveler transmitting information to the database.

37. The method according to claim 31, comprising the step of determining from the traveler profiles the traveler at usual travel routes and usual commencement time on those routes.

38. The method according to claim 31, comprising the step of determining from the traveler'"'"'s profile the times that travelers prefer to receive customized forecasted traffic information.

39. The method according to claim 38, comprising the step of sending customized forecasted traffic information to a traveler in accordance with the preferred times for receiving the information as determined from the travelers profile.

40. The method according to claim 38, including the step of a traveler accessing their stored travel prof tie and altering the data contained in that profile.

41. The method according to claim 31, wherein the step of integrating historical, real time and associated data with respect to the traveler'"'"'s profiles to produce customized forecasted traffic information includes the steps of:

a) determining the time series of average delays from historical data for links in a traffic network, the time series extending over a predetermined period of time;

b) receiving historical weather data and correlating that weather data with the historical traffic data and generating an average historical delay for the links during various weather conditions;

c) receiving real time data relating to weather in the geographic region of the traffic network;

d) estimating the actual link delays that will occur on each of the traffic links for each of the time series based upon the received data; and

e) generating a prediction of the actual delay from a commencement node to a destination node of the traffic network by summing the respective link delays of the links along the travel route using the estimate for each link delay at the time the traveler is expected to commence travel along those links.

42. The method according to claim 41, wherein the step of integrating historical, real time and associated data with respect to traveler profiles includes the step of determining seasonal trends in the historical data relating to average link delays and removing those seasonal trends from the historical traffic data.

43. The method according to claim 41, wherein the step of integrating historical, real time and associated data with respect to traveler profiles includes the step of estimating the actual traffic link delay that will occur for a link some time in the future by receiving real time traffic data relating to measured delays on traffic links and calculating the ratio of the most recently measured traffic link delay to the average historical link delay for the corresponding time step at which the measurement was taken and multiplying the average historical link delay for the link at a future time step with the previously established ratio thus generating an estimate of the actual link delay that will occur for the link at the time step in the future.

44. The method according to claim 43, wherein the step of integrating historical, real time and associated data with respect to traveler profiles includes the step of generating an estimate of the actual traffic link delay that will occur for a link some time in the future for all traffic links of the network relevant to traveler profiles.

45. The method according to claim 41, wherein the step of integrating historical, real time and associated data with respect to traveler profiles includes the step of determining predictions of actual delays that will occur for travel routes according to traveler profiles at the times required by each respective traveler profile.

46. The method according to claim 41, wherein the step of integrating historical, real time and associated data with respect to traveler profiles includes the step of receiving data relating to events such as school holiday periods, summer holiday periods, public holidays and weekends and correlating that data with the historical traffic data.

47. The method according to claim 41, wherein the step of integrating historical, real time and associated data with respect to traveler profiles includes the step of modeling the historical and real time data by performing a least squares fit analysis to determine an average historical delay using the function:

$\hspace{1em}<br><br>\begin{array}{c}\mathrm{Delay}=<br><br>a_0+a_1*\mathrm{Dr}/\left(a_2+\mathrm{Dr}\right)+a_3*R/\left(a_4+R\right)+\\ <br><br>a_5*\mathrm{Sh}+a_6*\mathrm{Ch}+a_7*\mathrm{We}+a_8*\mathrm{Ph}+a_9*{\mathrm{Ph}}^{-}+a_{10}*{\mathrm{Ph}}^{+}\end{array}$

Where

Dr represents period since last rain

R represents rainfall in last predetermined period

Sh represents school holiday period

Ch represents common summer holiday period

We represents a weekend or weekday

Ph represents a public holiday

Ph⁻

represents a day before a public holiday

Ph⁺ represents a day after a public holiday.

48. The method according to claim 41, wherein the step of integrating historical, real time and associated data with respect to traveler profiles includes the step of receiving data relating to estimated link delays caused by incidents and storing that data for subsequent access whereby estimated delays caused by incidents are summed with historically expected link delays when predicted travel delays are generated.

49. The method according to claim 41, further comprising the step of estimating travel time on a particular link on the basis of prior links to said particular link traversed and taking account of the delay involved with traversing said prior links and intersections.

50. The method according to claim 41, including the step of identifying an optimal path of travel through a traffic network by determining a link travel time for each traffic link in a network and implementing a path searching method to determine the optimal path between two nodes in the traffic network, the optimal path being the series of connected traffic links between the two nodes resulting in the least expected delay.

51. The method according to claim 39, wherein the step of determining link travel time for a traffic link in a network includes the step of summing the mean free travel time for that link and the average time required to negotiate the immediate upstream intersection connected to that link.

52. The method according to claim 51, wherein the determination of the mean free travel time for a traffic link includes the step of obtaining the mean free travel speed by dividing the vehicle flow rate for the link by the vehicle concentration for the link and obtaining the mean free travel time by dividing the distance of the link by the mean free travel speed.

53. The method according to claim 51, including the step of obtaining an average time to negotiate an immediate upstream intersection from the traffic network traffic control system.

54. The method according to claim 50, including the step of identifying a request to provide an optimal travel path through a travel network and upon receipt of such a request, comparing measured link delays most recently collected from traffic signal data with historical link delay data and estimating the actual link delay for each traffic link in the network for an appropriate number of steps in the time series according, the traveler'"'"'s commencement and destination nodes in the network.

55. The method according to claim 54, including the step of identifying whether sufficient recent real time link delay data for a traffic link is available according to a pre-established criteria and in the event that sufficiently recent link time delay data is not available, making use of historical link delay data.

56. The method according to claim 41, including the step of identifying whether there is insufficient historical traffic data for links in a traffic net-work to generate historical link delay data in accordance with a pre-established criteria and in the event of identifying that insufficient data exists, using available traffic data for other links in the same and/or different networks as estimates for those various links for which there is no available data.

57. The method according to claim 56, wherein the step of using available traffic data for other links in the same and/or different network as estimates for the various links for which there is no available data includes the step of matching the traffic links for which no traffic data is available to other traffic links for which traffic data is available, the method step taking account of one or more of the following:

a) the relevant geometry of the traffic links;

b) the relative arrangement of the traffic links;

c) the relative capacity of the traffic links;

d) the relative alignment of the traffic links with locations of relatively high population density;

e) the relative DOS of the traffic links;

f) the relative distance of the traffic links from locations of relatively high population density.

58. The method according to claim 31, further comprising the step of matching traffic data available for a portion of a city or urban area to another city or another urban area having similar traffic flow characteristics to the first mentioned city or urban area, in order to estimate the traffic data in said another city or said another urban area, wherein no traffic data is available for said another city or said another urban area.