Security analyst performance tracking and analysis system and method

• US 6,983,257 B2
• Filed: 04/10/2002
• Issued: 01/03/2006
• Est. Priority Date: 04/24/1998
• Status: Expired due to Term

• Current Assignee: Refinitiv US Organization, LLC (Refinitiv US Holdings, Inc.)
• Original Assignee: StarMine Corp. (The Woodbridge Co. Ltd.)
• Inventors: Gatto, Joseph G.
• Primary Examiner(s): Kazimi, Hani
• Assistant Examiner(s): Subramanian, Narayanswamy
• Application Number:
  US10/119,082
• Publication Number:
  US 20020156714A1
• Time in Patent Office: 1,364 Days
• Field of Search: 705/36
• US Class Current: 705/36.00R
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/00 Finance; Insurance; Tax strategies; Processing of corporate or income taxes
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/02 Banking, e.g. interest calculation or account maintenance credit or loans G06Q40/03
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/04 Trading; Exchange, e.g. stocks, commodities, derivatives or currency exchange
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/06 Asset management; Financial planning or analysis

Abstract

A system and method for measuring, analyzing, and tracking the past performance of security analysts'"'"' earnings estimates and recommendations. A database containing historical information pertaining to analyst earnings estimates and recommendations is downloaded into the system. Pre-calculated data values are also added to the database including adjustment factors a single or set of analysts based upon their historical earnings estimates as compared to actual earnings estimates over time, and other user-defined performance analysis set parameters and metrics. A weighting factor may also be calculated for a set of analysts based upon factors such as the recency of an analyst'"'"'s earnings estimates. Using these adjustment and weighting factors and each analyst'"'"'s actual earnings estimate, a custom composite estimate may be derived. A front-end graphical user interface (GUI) is used to view analyst historical data either as raw data or, by using a data visualization technique, as a graph or chart.

Claims

1. A computer-implemented system for objectively measuring security analysts'"'"' performance based on historical accuracy of their earnings predictions for one or more securities, the system comprising:

a database of historical data, the historical data including;

(i) individual earnings predictions by a plurality of analysts pertaining to at least one earnings event for a given security;

(ii) revisions made by an analyst to an earnings prediction prior to an actual earnings report date;

(iii) actual reported earnings for earnings events for securities; and

(iv) dates of the earnings predictions, revisions to earnings predictions, and the actual reported earnings;

a user interface for selecting criteria, including one or more of a time frame over which earnings predictions are to be measured;

a number of periods over which to measure performance;

at least one error metric to be used to calculate performance;

one or more securities over which to measure performance; and

exclusion criteria by which to exclude certain earnings predictions; and

a processor for determining performance based on the selected criteria and the historical data.

2. The system of claim 1, wherein the time frame includes a selected range of time prior to an actual earnings report date.

3. The system of claim 1, wherein the number of periods corresponds to a predetermined number of earnings events.

4. The system of claim 1, wherein the at least one error metric measures the accuracy of one analyst relative to the accuracy of other analysts that have made earnings predictions for the selected one or more securities.

5. The system of claim 1, wherein the at least one error metric measures an average of absolute errors for a selected analyst over a selected time frame.

6. The system of claim 1, wherein a user can select from one or more analysts, brokerages, or ticker symbols for which to measure performance.

7. The system of claim 1, further comprising means for enabling a user to create or modify models, wherein the models may include the use of accuracy scores determined by the user-selected criteria.

8. The system of claim 1, further comprising a display for enabling the user to selectively display performance data based on user-selected criteria.

9. A computer-implemented method of objectively measuring security analysts'"'"' performance based on historical accuracy of their earnings predictions for one or more securities, the method comprising the steps of:

storing historical data in a database, the historical data including;

(i) individual earnings predictions by a plurality of analysts pertaining to at least one earnings event for a given security;

(ii) revisions made by an analyst to an earnings prediction prior to an actual earnings report date;

(iii) actual reported earnings for earnings events for securities; and

(iv) dates of the earnings predictions, revisions to earnings predictions, and the actual reported earnings;

selecting criteria via a user interface, including one or more of a time frame over which earnings predictions are to be measured;

a number of periods over which to measure performance;

at least one error metric to be used to calculate performance;

one or more securities over which to measure performance; and

exclusion criteria by which to exclude certain earnings predictions; and

determining performance based on the selected criteria and the historical data.

10. The method of claim 9, wherein the time frame includes a selected range of time prior to an actual earnings report date.

11. The method of claim 9, wherein the number of periods corresponds to a predetermined number of earnings events.

12. The method of claim 9, wherein the at least one error metric measures the accuracy of one analyst relative to the accuracy of other analysts that have made earnings predictions for the selected one or more securities.

13. The method of claim 9, wherein the at least one error metric measures an average of absolute errors for a selected analyst over a selected time frame.

14. The method of claim 9, further comprising the step of enabling a user to select from one or more analysts, brokerages, or ticker symbols for which to measure performance.

15. The method of claim 9, further comprising the step of enabling a user to create or modify models, wherein the models may include the use of accuracy scores determined by the user-selected criteria.

16. The method of claim 9, further comprising the step of enabling a user to selectively display performance data based on user-selected criteria.