Sector capacity prediction

• US 6,996,374 B1
• Filed: 07/30/2002
• Issued: 02/07/2006
• Est. Priority Date: 07/30/2002
• Status: Expired due to Fees

• Current Assignee: Cellco Partnership, Inc. (Verizon Communications Inc.)
• Original Assignee: Cellco Partnership, Inc. (Verizon Communications Inc.)
• Inventors: Bao, Derek Hongwei, Townley, Scott Anthony
• Primary Examiner(s): Trinh, Sonny
• Assistant Examiner(s): PHAN, HUY Q
• Application Number:
  US10/207,223
• Time in Patent Office: 1,288 Days
• Field of Search: 455/67.11, 455/446, 455/449, 455/67.13, 455/423, 455/424, 455/425, 455/453, 455/561
• US Class Current: 455/67.11
• CPC Class Codes: H04W 24/02 Arrangements for optimising operational condition

Abstract

Infrastructure network service measurements are used to determine sector capacity, or the like, in a wireless network. The embodiments use a linear regression to predict current usage and/or capacity of the radio-frequency link resources between wireless subscribers and wireless base stations, for example, as an indication of when the link is incapable of supporting additional subscribers. The determination of resource capacity can be refined down to the sector-carrier level (a single carrier within a base station sector). The prediction can be cast in terms of time, which allows network service providers to plan the growth of their base stations to meet subscriber needs. Metrics derived from the regression, such as line slope, also provide useful information about usage and performance.

Claims

1. A method of determining capacity of a resource in a wireless communication network having a base station serving one or more wireless remote stations, comprising:

recording level of usage of an air-link resource of the base station by wireless remote stations, during each of a plurality of intervals;

recording a base station power level of communications signals associated with the air-link resource of the base station, during each of the plurality of intervals;

performing a linear regression on data points of the recorded levels of usage and the recorded power levels, to calculate a regression line of usage versus power for the air-link resource;

identifying a power limit parameter associated with the air-link resource; and

projecting a maximum usage capacity from a usage level on the regression line corresponding to a power level equal to the power limit parameter associated with the air-link resource.

2. A method as in claim 1, further comprising estimating a representative current usage value from a predetermined percentile of the recorded levels of usage.

3. A method as in claim 1, further comprising determining the slope of the regression line.

4. A method as in claim 1, further comprising calculating a correlation coefficient of the recorded levels of usage and the recorded power levels, to provide a confidence factor related to the accuracy of the regression line.

5. A method as in claim 1, further comprising filtering out usage versus power data points from the recorded data before performing the linear regression, for data points exhibiting an out-of-range characteristic.

6. A method as in claim 5, wherein the out-of-range characteristic comprises usage during an interval that is below a threshold value.

7. A method as in claim 5, wherein the out-of-range characteristic comprises power during an interval that is below a threshold value.

8. A method as in claim 5, wherein the out-of-range characteristic comprises power during an interval that is above a limit value.

9. A method as in claim 1, further comprising:

filtering from the recorded data usage versus power data points having a residual difference from the regression line greater than a threshold value; and

performing another linear regression on recorded levels of usage and recorded power levels remaining after the filtering, to calculate a new regression line of usage versus power.

10. A method as in claim 1, wherein:

the recorded base station power level of communications signals associated with the air-link resource of the base station comprises a power level of signals transmitted on a carrier from one of a plurality of sectors of the base station during each interval; and

the recorded level of usage of the air-link resource comprises usage of code resources during each interval, for communications carried on the carrier of the one sector during each interval.

11. A method as in claim 10, wherein:

the power level comprises peak power of transmissions of the carrier of the one sector during each interval; and

the usage of code resources is recorded in Erlangs, Centi-Call Seconds (CCS), or minutes of use (MOU) during each interval.

12. A method as in claim 10, wherein the power level comprises average power of transmissions of the carrier of the one sector during each interval.

13. A method as in claim 1, wherein:

the recorded base station power level of communications signals associated with the air-link resource of the base station comprises a power level of signals received on a carrier at the base station, for one of a plurality of carriers, during each interval; and

the recorded level of usage of the air-link resource comprises usage of code resources during each interval, for uplink communications on the carrier.

14. A method as in claim 1, wherein the identified power limit parameter associated with the resource corresponds to the point at which the regression line would cross an axis for power on a graph of usage versus power.

15. A method as in claim 1, wherein the step of identifying the power limit parameter associated with the resource comprises selecting a minimum from among the following:

overload power limit,

hardware power limit, and

pilot power plus an offset constant related to an acceptable level of interference.

16. A method of assessing usage of and operations relating to a resource in a wireless communication network having a base station serving one or more wireless remote stations, comprising:

recording level of usage of an air-link resource of the base station by wireless remote stations, during each of a plurality of intervals;

recording a base station power level of communications signals associated with the air-link resource of the base station, during each of the plurality of intervals;

performing a linear regression on data points of the recorded levels of usage and the recorded power levels, to calculate a regression line of usage versus power for the air-link resource;

deriving at least one metric regarding operations relating to the air-link resource from the regression line; and

estimating a representative current usage value, from the recorded levels of usage.

17. A method as in claim 16, wherein the deriving step comprises determining the slope of the regression line.

18. A method as in claim 16, further comprising calculating a correlation coefficient of the recorded levels of usage and the recorded power levels, to provide a confidence factor related to the accuracy of the regression line.

19. A method as in claim 16, further comprising filtering out usage versus power data points from the recorded data before performing the linear regression, for data points exhibiting an out-of-range characteristic.

20. A method as in claim 19, wherein the out-of-range characteristic comprises usage during an interval that is below a threshold value.

21. A method as in claim 19, wherein the out-of-range characteristic comprises power during an interval that is below a threshold value.

22. A method as in claim 19, wherein the out-of-range characteristic comprises power during an interval that is above a limit value.

23. A method as in claim 16, further comprising:

filtering from the recorded data usage versus power data points having a residual difference from the regression line greater than a threshold value; and

performing another linear regression on recorded levels of usage and recorded power levels remaining after the filtering, to calculate a new regression line of usage versus power.

24. A method as in claim 16, wherein:

the recorded base station power level of communications signals associated with the air-link resource of the base station comprises a power level of signals transmitted on a carrier from one of a plurality of sectors of the base station during each interval; and

the recorded level of usage of the air-link resource comprises usage of code resources during each interval, for communications carried on the carrier of the one sector during each interval.

25. A method as in claim 24, wherein:

the power level comprises peak power of transmissions of the carrier of the one sector during each interval; and

the usage of code resources is recorded in Erlangs, Centi-Call Seconds (CCS), or minutes of use (MOU) during each interval.

26. A method as in claim 24, wherein the power level comprises average power of transmissions of the carrier of the one sector during each interval.

27. A method as in claim 16, wherein:

the recorded base station power level of communications signals associated with the air-link resource of the base station comprises a power level of signals received on a carrier at the base station, for one of a plurality of carriers, during each interval; and

the recorded level of usage of the air-link resource comprises usage of code resources during each interval, for uplink communications on the carrier.

28. A method as in claim 16, wherein:

the deriving step comprises projecting a usage capacity from a predetermined point on the regression line; and

the method further comprises analyzing a potential for future growth in usage based on the estimated current usage value and the projected usage capacity.

29. A method as in claim 28, wherein:

the estimating step comprises estimating the representative current usage value from a usage level corresponding to a predetermined percentile of the recorded levels of usage; and

the projecting step comprises projecting a maximum usage capacity from a usage level on the regression line corresponding to a power limit parameter associated with the air-link resource.

30. A method of analyzing capacity and usage of air-link resources in a wireless communication network having a plurality of cell-site base stations serving wireless remote stations, comprising:

during each of a plurality of intervals, recording level of usage of a resource associated with a carrier of each of a plurality of sectors for each of a plurality of the base stations;

for each respective one of the carriers, recording a power level of communications signals associated with the respective carrier, during each of the plurality of intervals;

for each respective one of the carriers, performing a linear regression on the recorded levels of usage of the resource associated with the respective carrier and the recorded power levels of communications signals associated with the respective carrier, to calculate a regression line of usage versus power for the respective carrier;

identifying a power limit parameter for each respective one of the carriers;

for each respective one of the carriers, projecting a maximum usage capacity for the respective carrier from a usage level on the regression line for the respective carrier corresponding to a power level equal to the power limit parameter for each respective carrier; and

estimating a representative current usage value for each respective carrier as a usage level corresponding to a predetermined percentile of the recorded levels of usage for the respective carrier.

31. A computer system for determining capacity of a resource in a wireless communication network having a base station serving one or more wireless remote stations, the computer system comprising:

at least one programmable processor; and

a program for execution by the at least one processor, wherein execution of the program causes the computer system to perform the sequence of steps, comprising;

receiving level of usage of an air-link resource of the base station by wireless remote stations, during each of a plurality of intervals;

receiving data regarding a base station power level of communications signals associated with the air-link resource of the base station, during each of the plurality of intervals;

performing a linear regression on the levels of usage and the data regarding power levels, to calculate a regression line of usage versus power for the resource;

identifying a power limit parameter associated with the air-link resource; and

projecting a maximum usage capacity from a usage level on the regression line corresponding to a power level equal to the power limit parameter.

32. A computer system as in claim 31, wherein execution of the program causes the computer system to perform a step comprising estimating current usage from as a predetermined percentile of the recorded levels of usage.

33. A computer system for assessing operations and usage of a resource in a wireless communication network having a base station serving one or more wireless remote stations, the computer system comprising:

at least one programmable processor; and

a program for execution by the at least one processor, wherein execution of the program causes the computer system to perform the sequence of steps, comprising;

receiving level of usage of an air-link resource of the base station by wireless remote stations, during each of a plurality of intervals;

receiving data regarding a base station power level of communications signals associated with the air-link resource of the base station, during each of the plurality of intervals;

performing a linear regression on the levels of usage and the data regarding power levels, to calculate a regression line of usage versus power for the resource;

deriving at least one metric regarding operations associated with the air-link resource from the regression line; and

estimating a representative current usage value for the air-link resource from the received levels of usage.

34. A program product, comprising executable code transportable by at least one machine readable medium, wherein execution of the code by at least one programmable computer causes the at least one programmable computer to perform the sequence of steps, comprising:

receiving level of usage of an air-link resource of a base station of a wireless communication network by wireless remote stations, during each of a plurality of intervals;

receiving data regarding a base station power level of communications signals associated with the air-link resource of the base station, during each of the plurality of intervals;

performing a linear regression on the levels of usage and the data regarding power levels, to calculate a regression line of usage versus power for the resource;

identifying a power limit parameter associated with the air-link resource; and

projecting a maximum usage capacity, from a usage level of a point on the regression line corresponding to a power level equal to the power limit parameter.

35. A product as in claim 34, wherein execution of the program causes the at least one programmable computer to perform a step comprising estimating a value for current usage from the recorded levels of usage.

36. A program product, comprising executable code transportable by at least one machine readable medium, wherein execution of the code by at least one programmable computer causes the at least one programmable computer to perform the sequence of steps, comprising:

receiving level of usage of an air-link resource of a base station of a wireless communication network by wireless remote stations, during each of a plurality of intervals;

receiving data regarding a base station power level of communications signals associated with the air-link resource of the base station, during each of the plurality of intervals;

performing a linear regression on the levels of usage and the data regarding power levels, to calculate a regression line of usage versus power for the resource;

deriving at least one metric regarding operations associated with the air-link resource in the wireless network from the regression line; and

estimating a representative current usage value for the air-link resource from the received levels of usage.

37. A method of analyzing operations regarding a resource in a wireless communication network having a base station serving one or more wireless remote stations, comprising:

recording level of usage of an air-link resource of the base station by wireless remote stations, during each of a plurality of intervals;

recording a base station power level of communications signals associated with the air-link resource of the base station, during each of the plurality of intervals;

performing a linear regression on the recorded levels of usage and the recorded power levels, to calculate a regression line of usage versus power for the air-link resource; and

deriving at least one metric regarding operations associated with the air-link resource in the wireless network from the regression line.

38. A method as in claim 37, wherein the at least one metric relates to a projection of capacity for communications through the wireless network using the air-link resource.

39. A method as in claim 38, wherein the step of deriving comprises:

identifying a power limit parameter associated with usage of the air-link resource; and

projecting the capacity from usage at a point on the regression line corresponding in power to the identified power limit parameter.

40. A method as in claim 37, further comprising estimating current usage of the air-link resource.

41. A method as in claim 40, wherein the step of estimating current usage comprises selecting a usage level corresponding to a predetermined percentile of usage, during the intervals.

42. A method as in claim 37, wherein the at least one metric relates to network performance during processing of communications through the wireless network using the air-link resource.

43. A method as in claim 42, wherein the step of deriving comprises determining the slope of the regression line.

44. A computer system for analyzing operations utilizing a resource in a wireless communication network having a base station serving one or more wireless remote stations, the computer system comprising:

a communication interface for receiving operations data from one or more elements of the wireless communication network

at least one memory for storing received data; and

at least one programmable processor for processing the stored data; and

a program for execution by the at least one processor, wherein execution of the program causes the computer system to perform the sequence of steps, comprising;

receiving and storing level of usage of an air-link resource of the base station by wireless remote stations, during each of a plurality of intervals;

receiving and storing data regarding a base station power level of communications signals associated with the air-link resource of the base station, during each of the plurality of intervals;

performing a linear regression on the stored levels of usage and the stored data regarding power levels, to calculate a regression line of usage versus power for the air-link resource; and

deriving at least one metric regarding operations associated with the air-link resource in the wireless network from the regression line.

45. A computer system as in claim 44, wherein the at least one metric is selected from the group consisting essentially of:

projected capacity and performance.

46. A computer system as in claim 44, wherein:

the derivation of at least one metric comprises;

projecting usage capacity in relation to the air-link resource from a point on the regression line; and

calculating a slope of the regression line as a metric of performance of network operations regarding the air-link resource; and

the sequence of steps further comprises estimating current usage of the air-link resource from the stored data.

47. A program product, comprising executable code, wherein execution of the code by at least one programmable computer causes the at least one programmable computer to perform the sequence of steps, comprising:

receiving level of usage of an air-link resource of a base station by wireless remote stations, during each of a plurality of intervals;

receiving data regarding a base station power level of communications signals associated with the air-link resource of the base station, during each of the plurality of intervals;

performing a linear regression on the levels of usage and the data regarding power levels, to calculate a regression line of usage versus power for the resource; and

deriving at least one metric regarding operations associated with the air-link resource in the wireless network from the regression line.

48. A product as in claim 47, wherein the at least one metric is selected from the group consisting essentially of:

projected capacity and performance.

49. A product as in claim 47, wherein:

the derivation of at least one metric comprises;

projecting usage capacity in relation to the air-link resource from a point on the regression line; and

calculating a slope of the regression line as a metric of performance of network operations regarding the air-link resource; and

the sequence of steps further comprises estimating current usage of the air-link resource from the stored data.

50. A method of assessing performance in a wireless communication network having a base station serving one or more wireless remote stations, comprising:

recording level of usage of an air-link resource of the base station by wireless remote stations, during each of a plurality of intervals;

recording a base station power level of communications signals associated with the air-link resource of the base station, during each of the plurality of intervals;

performing a linear regression on the recorded levels of usage and the recorded power levels, to calculate a regression line of usage versus power for the air-link resource; and

outputting slope of the regression line, as a metric representing performance with regard to wireless network operations utilizing the air-link resource.

51. A computer system for assessing performance in a wireless communication network having a base station serving one or more wireless remote stations, the computer system comprising:

a communication interface for receiving operations data from one or more elements of the wireless communication network

at least one memory for storing received data; and

at least one programmable processor for processing the stored data; and

a program for execution by the at least one processor, wherein execution of the program causes the computer system to perform the sequence of steps, comprising;

receiving and storing level of usage of an air-link resource of the base station by wireless remote stations, during each of a plurality of intervals;

receiving and storing data regarding a base station power level of communications signals associated with the air-link resource of the base station, during each of the plurality of intervals;

performing a linear regression on the stored levels of usage and the stored data regarding power levels, to calculate a regression line of usage versus power for the air-link resource; and

outputting slope of the regression line, as a metric representing performance with regard to wireless network operations utilizing the air-link resource.

52. A program product, comprising executable code, wherein execution of the code by at least one programmable computer causes the at least one programmable computer to perform the sequence of steps, comprising:

receiving level of usage of an air-link resource of a base station by wireless remote stations, during each of a plurality of intervals;

receiving data regarding a base station power level of communications signals associated with the air-link resource of the base station, during each of the plurality of intervals;

performing a linear regression on the level of usage and the data regarding power levels, to calculate a regression line of usage versus power for the resource; and

outputting slope of the regression line, as a metric representing performance with regard to wireless network operations utilizing the air-link resource.