Method and apparatus for predicting failure in a system
DCFirst Claim
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1. A computer-implemented method for predicting failure in a system, the method comprising:
- receiving data associated with a system, the received data including sensed data indicative of a system response to a specific load on the system while the system is in operation other than undergoing a system test;
calculating a prediction indicative of a potential failure of said system using a pre-selected probabilistic model and said received data, the probabilistic model selected to calculate said prediction based on at least the specific load; and
wherein the probabilistic model utilizes at least one of fast probability methods and simulation techniques.
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Abstract
The invention regards a system reliability or failure predicting apparatus and method that incorporates known information about system component failure into a system model and uses the model with or without other acquired system data to predict the probability of system failure. An embodiment of the method includes using probabilistic methods to create a system failure model from the failure models of individual system components, predicting the failure of the system based on the component models and system data, ranking the sensitivity of the system to the system variables, and communicating a failure prediction.
113 Citations
83 Claims
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1. A computer-implemented method for predicting failure in a system, the method comprising:
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receiving data associated with a system, the received data including sensed data indicative of a system response to a specific load on the system while the system is in operation other than undergoing a system test;
calculating a prediction indicative of a potential failure of said system using a pre-selected probabilistic model and said received data, the probabilistic model selected to calculate said prediction based on at least the specific load; and
wherein the probabilistic model utilizes at least one of fast probability methods and simulation techniques. - View Dependent Claims (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22)
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23. A computer-implemented method for predicting failure in a system, the method comprising:
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receiving data associated with a system, the received data including sensed data indicative of a system response to a specific load on the system while the system is in operation other than undergoing a system test;
calculating a prediction indicative of a potential failure of said system using a pre-selected probabilistic model and said received data, the probabilistic model selected to calculate said prediction based on at least the specific load, wherein the data indicative of a system response to a specific load comprises a bend angle. - View Dependent Claims (24)
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25. A computer-implemented method for predicting failure in a system, the method comprising:
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receiving data associated with a system, the received data including sensed data indicative of a system response to a specific load on the system while the system is in operation other than undergoing a system test;
calculating a prediction indicative of a potential failure of said system using a pre-selected probabilistic model and said received data, the probabilistic model selected to calculate said prediction based on at least the specific load, wherein the probabilistic model is selected based on at least one failure mechanism including a failure mechanism described by an equation having at least a capacity section and a demand section. - View Dependent Claims (26)
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27. An apparatus for monitoring a system, said apparatus comprising:
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sensors for acquiring sensed data indicative of a current physical state of a particular system; and
one or more data processing systems including a first computer comprising;
a processor; and
a memory comprising;
instructions for receiving data including said acquired data;
instructions for determining a current operation status of said particular system using a probabilistic model to determine the current operation status based on a probable response of the particular system to one or more external parameters at a current time, and further using said acquired data; and
wherein the probabilistic model utilizes at least one of fast probability methods and simulation techniques. - View Dependent Claims (28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40, 41, 42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 47)
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48. An apparatus for monitoring a system, said apparatus comprising:
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sensors for acquiring sensed data indicative of a current physical state of a particular system; and
one or more data processing systems including a first computer comprising;
a processor; and
a memory comprising;
instructions for receiving data including said acquired data;
instructions for determining a current operation status of said particular system using a probabilistic model to determine the current operation status based on a probable response of the particular system to one or more external parameters at a current time, and further using said acquired data, wherein said instructions for determining a probable response of said at least one component of said system to the one or more external parameters at the current time comprises instructions for performing finite element analysis using at least a component configuration and data indicative of the one or more external parameters at the current time. - View Dependent Claims (49, 50)
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51. An apparatus for monitoring a system, said apparatus comprising:
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sensors for acquiring sensed data indicative of a current physical state of a particular system; and
one or more data processing systems including a first computer comprising;
a processor; and
a memory comprising;
instructions for receiving data including said acquired data;
instructions for determining a current operation status of said particular system using a probabilistic model to determine the current operation status based on a probable response of the particular system to one or more external parameters at a current time, and further using said acquired data, wherein the probabilistic model selected based on at least one failure mechanism including a failure mechanism is described by an equation including a capacity section and a demand section. - View Dependent Claims (52)
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53. A computer program product for predicting failure of a system for use in conjunction with a computer system, said computer program product comprising:
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a computer readable storage medium and a computer program mechanism embedded therein, said computer program mechanism comprising;
instructions for receiving data including sensed data indicative of a current physical state;
instructions for determining a failure probability of said system using a probabilistic model and said data, the probabilistic model to determine the failure probability based on modeling a response of the system to at least one force; and
wherein the probabilistic model utilizes at least one of fast probability methods and simulation techniques. - View Dependent Claims (54, 55, 56, 57, 58, 59, 60, 61, 62, 63, 64, 65, 66, 67, 68, 69, 70)
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71. A computer program product for predicting failure of a system for use in conjunction with a computer system, said computer program product comprising:
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a computer readable storage medium and a computer program mechanism embedded therein, said computer program mechanism comprising;
instructions for receiving data including sensed data indicative of a current physical state;
instructions for determining a failure probability of said system using a probabilistic model and said data, the probabilistic model to determine the failure probability based on modeling a response of the system to at least one force, wherein said instructions for determining the probable response of at least one component of the system to the at least one force comprise instructions for performing finite element analysis using at least a component configuration and data indicative of the at least one force.
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72. A computer program product for predicting failure of a system for use in conjunction with a computer system, said computer program product comprising:
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a computer readable storage medium and a computer program mechanism embedded therein, said computer program mechanism comprising;
instructions for receiving data including sensed data indicative of a current physical state;
instructions for determining a failure probability of said system using a probabilistic model and said data, the probabilistic model to determine the failure probability based on modeling a response of the system to at least one force, wherein the probabilistic model is selected based on at least one pre-determined failure mechanism including a mechanism described by an equation having at least a capacity section and a demand section.
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73. A computer-implemented method for predicting failure in a system, the method comprising:
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receiving data associated with the system while the system is in operation other than undergoing system test;
during system operation, ascertaining a probability of failure for each of a plurality of pre-determined failure mechanisms using a physics based first probabilistic failure model, wherein said probability of failure for each of said failure mechanisms is based at least partially on said received data and said pre-determined failure mechanisms;
predicting a probability of failure for the system using a physics based second probabilistic failure model, wherein said probability of failure for the system is at least partially based on said probability of failure of said failure mechanisms; and
communicating the probability of failure of the system. - View Dependent Claims (74, 75, 76, 77, 78)
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79. A computer implemented method for predicting failure in a system, comprising:
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determining failure mechanisms for a system;
receiving data associated with the system while the system is in operation other than undergoing system test;
selecting at least one suitable physics based probabilistic failure model for each failure mechanism;
ascertaining a probability of failure for each of said failure mechanisms using a selected physics based first probabilistic failure model, wherein said probability of failure for each of said failure mechanisms is based at least partially on said received data, said failure mechanisms, and variability of physical parameters of said system;
predicting a probability of failure for the system using a selected physics based second probabilistic failure model, wherein said probability of failure for the system is at least partially based on said probability of failure for each of said failure mechanisms; and
communicating said probability of failure for the system. - View Dependent Claims (80, 81)
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82. A computer-implemented method for predicting failure in a system, the method comprising:
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receiving data associated with a system, the received data including sensed data indicative of a system response to a specific load on the system while the system is in operation other than undergoing a system test;
calculating a prediction indicative of a potential failure of said system using a pre-selected probabilistic model and said received data, the probabilistic model selected to calculate said prediction based on at least the specific load, wherein calculating the prediction comprises determining a probable response of at least one component of said system to one or more external parameters by performing finite element analysis using at least a component configuration and data indicative of the one or more external parameters. - View Dependent Claims (83)
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Specification