Performing predictive pricing based on historical data

• US 7,010,494 B2
• Filed: 03/26/2004
• Issued: 03/07/2006
• Est. Priority Date: 03/27/2003
• Status: Expired due to Fees

• Current Assignee: Microsoft Technology Licensing LLC (Microsoft Corporation), Washington University In St Louis
• Original Assignee: University of Washington
• Inventors: Knoblock, Craig A., Etzioni, Oren, Tuchinda, Rattapoom, Yates, Alexander
• Primary Examiner(s): Hayes, John W.
• Assistant Examiner(s): NELSON, FREDA ANN
• Application Number:
  US10/811,077
• Publication Number:
  US 20050004819A1
• Time in Patent Office: 711 Days
• Field of Search: 705/5, 705 26- 27, 705/37, 705/400, 705/10, 705/412
• US Class Current: 705/7.31
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/02 Reservations, e.g. for tickets, services or events
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06 Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 20/201 Price look-up processing, e.g. updating
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0202 Market predictions or forecasting for commercial activities
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0206 Price or cost determination based on market factors
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0273 Determination of fees for advertising
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0283 Price estimation or determination
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0611 Request for offers or quotes
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/04 Trading; Exchange, e.g. stocks, commodities, derivatives or currency exchange
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 50/06 Energy or water supply

Abstract

Techniques are described for using predictive pricing information for items to assist in evaluating buying and/or selling decisions in various ways, such as on behalf of end-user item acquirers and/or intermediate item providers. The predictive pricing for an item may be based on an analysis of historical pricing information for that item and/or related items, and can be used to make predictions about future pricing information for the item. Such predictions may then be provided to users in various ways to enable comparison of current prices to predicted future prices. In some situations, predictive pricing information is used to assist customers when purchasing airline tickets and/or to assist travel agents when selling airline tickets. This abstract is provided to comply with rules requiring an abstract, and it is submitted with the intention that it will not be used to interpret or limit the scope or meaning of the claims.

Claims

1. A method for a computing system of an organization to provide information about airline tickets to customers by using predictive pricing that is based on historical airline ticket prices, the method comprising:

in the computing system, retrieving information about prices for airlines tickets that were previously offered to customers for multiple airline flights, each of the previously offered airline ticket prices specified by an airline ticket provider unrelated to the organization;

in the computing system, for each of the multiple airline flights, automatically determining pricing factors for the airline flight that are used to determine prices for the airline flight by the unrelated airline ticket provider for the airline flight, by

identifying from the retrieved airline ticket price information multiple previously offered prices for airline tickets for the airline flight; and

analyzing the identified previously offered airline ticket prices to detect the pricing factors for the airline flight, the pricing factors corresponding to changes in the identified previously offered airline ticket prices; and

in the computing system, after the automatic determining of the pricing factors for the airline flights, and for each of multiple requests that are each from a customer for information about airline flights, automatically advising the customer, by

identifying one or more of the multiple airline flights that each satisfy criteria in the request from the customer;

retrieving information about current prices offered for the identified airline flights that are specified by the unrelated airline ticket providers for the airline flights;

predicting future prices that will be offered for the identified airline flights by the unrelated airline ticket providers for those flights, the predicting based at least in part on the determined pricing factors for those airline flights;

for each of the identified airline flights, predicting a time at which an airline ticket for the identified airline flight will be available for a lowest price, based at least in part on the predicted future offered prices and the current offered prices; and

using the predicted times to advise the customer related to a current purchase of one or more airline tickets.

2. The method of claim 1 including automatically determining one or more sell-out factors for each of the multiple airline flights based on information about prior instances of the airline flights selling out, and wherein the prediction of each time is further based on a predicted sell-out time for the airline flight, the predicted sell-out time being based at least in part on the determined sell-out factors for that airline flight.

3. The method of claim 1 wherein a predicted future offered price for one of the identified airline flights is lower than the current offered price for the one airline flight, wherein the time predicted for the one identified airline flight is at a later time corresponding to the predicted future offered price, and wherein the using of the predicted times to advise a customer related to a current purchase of an airline ticket includes currently selling an airline ticket for the one identified airline flight to the customer at a price that is lower than the current offered price for that airline flight but at least as high as the predicted future offered price for that airline flight, and wherein the using of the predicted times to advise the customer related to the current purchase of the airline ticket further includes delaying a purchase of that sold airline ticket from the unrelated airline ticket provider for that flight until the later time.

4. The method of claim 1 wherein a predicted future offered price for one of the identified airline flights is higher than the current offered price for the one airline flight, wherein the time predicted for the one identified airline flight is a current time, and wherein the using of the predicted optimal airline ticket purchase times to advise a customer related to a current purchase of an airline ticket includes notifying the customer that the current offered price for the one airline flight is a price favorable to the customer, such that the customer should purchase an airline ticket for the one identified airline flight at the current time.

5. The method of claim 1 wherein one of the requests from a customer is to be alerted if prices for an indicated airline flight are predicted to increase, wherein at a later time a predicted future offered price for the indicated airline flight is determined to be higher than a price that is currently offered at the later time for the indicated airline flight, and wherein the using of the predicted optimal airline ticket purchase times to advise the customer related to a current purchase of an airline ticket includes alerting the customer at the later time to purchase an airline ticket for the indicated airline flight at that time.

6. The method of claim 1 wherein a predicted future offered price for one of the identified airline flights is lower than the price currently offered for the one airline flight at a current time, wherein the time predicted for the one identified airline flight is at a later time corresponding to the predicted future offered price, and wherein the using of the predicted optimal airline ticket purchase times to advise a customer related to a current purchase of an airline ticket includes notifying the customer at the current time to purchase the airline ticket at the later time.

7. The method of claim 1 wherein a predicted future offered price for one of the identified airline flights is higher than the current offered price for the one airline flight, and wherein the using of the predicted optimal airline ticket purchase times to advise a customer related to a current purchase of an airline ticket includes currently offering to sell an airline ticket for the one identified airline flight to the customer at a current sales price and offering to provide at least a partial refund if an actual future offered price for that airline flight is lower than the current sales price.

8. The method of claim 1 wherein one of the requests from a customer is to pay a specified price for an indicated airline flight at an indicated time, the specified price being lower than a current offered price for the indicated airline flight at the indicated time, wherein a predicted future offered price for the indicated airline flight at the indicated time is at least as low as the specified price, and wherein the using of the predicted optimal airline ticket purchase times to advise a customer related to a current purchase of an airline ticket includes currently selling an airline ticket for the indicated airline flight at the indicated time to the customer at the specified price but delaying a purchase of that sold airline ticket from the unrelated airline ticket provider for that flight until a later time.

9. The method of claim 1 wherein the multiple customer requests correspond to prior requests for which the customers have already purchased airline tickets at prior times, and wherein the use of the predicted times to advise a customer is performed at a current time but in a manner as if the predicting of the future prices and the predicting of the optimal time were performed at those prior times, so as to determine at the current time if the customers could likely have completed the purchases of the airline tickets near the prior times but at lower prices.

10. The method of claim 1 wherein multiple of the customer requests include requests to purchase airline tickets for an indicated airline flight at an indicated time, and including fulfilling those requests in an aggregate manner so as to hedge against price changes, the fulfilling including currently purchasing a subset of the requested airline tickets from the unrelated airline ticket provider for that flight and delaying purchasing of the other requested airline tickets from the unrelated airline ticket provider for that flight until a later time.

11. The method of claim 1 wherein the organization is an airline that supplies airline tickets for airline flights of the airline, wherein the retrieved information about airline ticket prices that were previously offered to customers is for airline tickets from one or more unrelated airline ticket providers that are each a competitor airline, wherein the predicted future offered prices for one or more of the identified airline flights of a competitor airline are lower than the currently offered prices for those airline flights such that the time predicted for those airline flights is a later time, and wherein the using of the predicted times to advise a customer related to a current purchase of an airline ticket includes immediately towering current prices on one or more of the airline flights of the organization and notifying the customer that the current prices on the airline flights of the organization are lower than the currently offered prices for airline flights of one or more of the competitor airlines.

12. The method of claim 1 wherein the using of the predicted optimal airline ticket purchase times to advise a customer related to a current purchase of one or more airline tickets is performed for a fee from the customer and/or from unrelated airline ticket providers that offer the tickets and/or from an intermediate seller from whom the one or more airline tickets can be acquired.

13. The method of claim 1 including responding to each request from a customer for information about airline flight prices by providing at least one Web page to the customer that includes information about a current offered price for each of one or more of the identified airline flights that satisfy criteria in the request from the customer, and wherein the using of the predicted optimal airline ticket purchase times to advise a customer related to a current purchase of one or more airline tickets includes providing information as part of the Web page for the customer that provides advice regarding purchasing one or more of the identified airline flights at the current offered prices for those flights.

14. The method of claim 1 wherein the method is further performed for other purchasable items distinct from airline tickets.

15. The method of claim 1 wherein the automatically determined pricing factors for each of at least one of the multiple airline flights includes multiple of an amount of time before the airline flight, a time of year of the airline flight, a degree of availability of airline tickets for the airline flight, a day of week for departure and/or arrival of the airline flight, a class code for the airline flight, a fair basis code for the airline flight, whether a current day is an advance purchase day for the airline flight, and behavior of competitors.

16. The method of claim 1 wherein the automatic determining of the pricing factors for the airline flights and/or the automatic predicting of the future prices that will be offered for identified airline flights and/or the automatic predicting of optimal times to purchase airline tickets for the identified airline flights includes using multiple of statistical-based learning, reinforcement-based learning, rule learning, machine learning, and ensemble-based learning.

17. A computer-readable medium having instructions embedded thereon for performing a method in a computing system of an organization to provide information about airline tickets to customers by using predictive pricing that is based on historical airline ticket prices, the method comprising:

in the computing system, retrieving information about prices for airlines tickets that were previously offered to customers for multiple airline flights, each of the previously offered airline ticket prices specified by an airline ticket provider unrelated to the organization;

in the computing system, for each of the multiple airline flights, automatically determining pricing factors for the airline flight that are used to determine prices for the airline flight by the unrelated airline ticket provider for the airline flight, by

identifying from the retrieved airline ticket price information multiple previously offered prices for airline tickets for the airline flight; and

analyzing the identified previously offered airline ticket prices to detect the pricing factors for the airline flight, the pricing factors corresponding to changes in the identified previously offered airline ticket prices; and

in the computing system, after the automatic determining of the pricing factors for the airline flights, and for each of multiple requests that are each from a customer for information about airline flights, automatically advising the customer, by

identifying one or more of the multiple airline flights that each satisfy criteria in the request from the customer;

retrieving information about current prices offered for the identified airline flights that are specified by the unrelated airline ticket providers for the airline flights;

predicting future prices that will be offered for the identified airline flights by the unrelated airline ticket providers for those flights, the predicting based at least in part on the determined pricing factors for those airline flights;

for each of the identified airline flights, predicting a time at which an airline ticket for the identified aiding flight will be available for a lowest price, based at least in part on the predicted future offered prices and the current offered prices; and

using the predicted times to advise the customer related to a current purchase of one or more airline tickets.

18. The computer-readable medium of claim 17 wherein the method includes automatically determining one or more sell-out factors for each of the multiple airline flights based on information about prior instances of the airline flights selling out, and wherein the prediction of each time is further based on a predicted sell-out time for the airline flight, the predicted sell-out time being based at least in part on the determined sell-out factors for that airline flight.

19. The computer-readable medium of claim 17 wherein a predicted future offered price for one of the identified airline flights is lower than the current offered price for the one airline flight wherein the time predicted for the one identified airline flight is at a later time corresponding to the predicted future offered price, and wherein the using of the predicted times to advise a customer related to a current purchase of an airline ticket includes currently selling an airline ticket for the one identified airline flight to the customer at a price that is lower than the current offered price for that airline flight but at least as high as the predicted future offered price for that airline flight, and wherein the using of the predicted times to advise the customer related to the current purchase of the airline ticket further includes delaying a purchase of that sold airline ticket from the unrelated airline ticket provider for that flight until the later time.

20. The computer-readable medium of claim 17 wherein a predicted future offered price for one of the identified airline flights is higher than the current offered price for the one airline flight, wherein the time predicted for the one identified airline flight is a current time, and wherein the using of the predicted optimal airline ticket purchase times to advise a customer related to a current purchase of en airline ticket includes notifying the customer that the current offered price for the one airline flight is a price favorable to the customer, such that the customer should purchase an airline ticket for the one identified airline flight at the current time.

21. The computer-readable medium of claim 17 wherein one of the requests from a customer is to be alerted if prices for an indicated airline flight are predicted to increase, wherein at a later time a predicted future offered price for the indicated airline flight is determined to be higher than a price that is currently offered at the later time for the indicated airline flight, and wherein the using of the predicted optimal airline ticket purchase times to advise the customer related to a current purchase of an airline ticket includes alerting the customer at the later time to purchase an airline ticket for the indicated airline flight at that time.

22. The computer-readable medium of claim 17 wherein a predicted future offered price for one of the identified airline flights is lower than the price currently offered for the one airline flight at a current time, wherein the time predicted for the one identified airline flight is at a later time corresponding to the predicted future offered price, and wherein the using of the predicted optimal airline ticket purchase times to advise a customer related to a current purchase of an airline ticket includes notifying the customer at the current time to purchase the airline ticket at the later time.

23. The computer-readable medium of claim 17 wherein a predicted future offered price for one of the identified airline flights is higher than the current offered price for the one airline flight, and wherein the using of the predicted optimal airline ticket purchase times to advise a customer related to a current purchase of an airline ticket includes currently offering to sell an airline ticket for the one identified airline flight to the customer at a current sales price and offering to provide at least a partial refund if an actual future offered price for that airline flight is lower than the current sales price.

24. The computer-readable medium of claim 17 wherein one of the requests from a customer is to pay a specified price for an indicated airline flight at an indicated time, the specified price being lower than a current offered price for the indicated airline flight at the indicated time, wherein a predicted future offered price for the indicated airline flight at the indicated time is at least as low as the specified price, and wherein the using of the predicted optimal airline ticket purchase times to advise a customer related to a current purchase of an airline ticket includes currently selling an airline ticket for the indicated airline flight at the indicated time to the customer at the specified price but delaying a purchase of that sold airline ticket from the unrelated airline ticket provider for that flight until a later time.

25. The computer-readable medium of claim 17 wherein the multiple customer requests correspond to prior requests for which the customers have already purchased airline tickets at prior times, and wherein the use of the predicted times to advise a customer is performed at a current time but in a manner as if the predicting of the future prices and the predicting of the optimal time were performed at those prior times, so as to determine at the current time if the customers could likely have completed the purchases of the airline tickets near the prior times but at lower prices.

26. The computer-readable medium of claim 17 wherein multiple of the customer requests include requests to purchase airline tickets for an indicated airline flight at an indicated time, and including fulfilling those requests in an aggregate manner so as to hedge against price changes, the fulfilling including currently purchasing a subset of the requested airline tickets from the unrelated airline ticket provider for that flight and delaying purchasing of the other requested airline tickets from the unrelated airline ticket provider for that flight until a later time.

27. The computer-readable medium of claim 17 wherein the organization is an airline that supplies airline tickets for airline flights of the airline, wherein the retrieved information about airline ticket prices that were previously offered to customers is for airline tickets from one or more unrelated airline ticket providers that are each a competitor airline, wherein the predicted future offered prices for one or more of the identified airline flights of a competitor airline are lower than the currently offered prices for those airline flights such that the time predicted for those airline flights is a later time, and wherein the using of the predicted times to advise a customer related to a current purchase of an airline ticket includes immediately lowering current prices on one or more of the airline flights of the organization and notifying the customer that the current prices on the airline flights of the organization are lower than the currently offered prices for airline flights of one or more of the competitor airlines.

28. The computer-readable medium of claim 17 wherein the using of the predicted optimal airline ticket purchase times to advise a customer related to a current purchase of one or more airline tickets is performed for a fee from the customer and/or from unrelated airline ticket providers that offer the tickets and/or from an intermediate seller from whom the one or more airline tickets can be acquired.

29. The computer-readable medium of claim 17 including responding to each request from a customer for information about airline flight prices by providing at least one Web page to the customer that includes information about a current offered price for each of one or more of the identified airline flights that satisfy criteria in the request from the customer, and wherein the using of the predicted optimal airline ticket purchase times to advise a customer related to a current purchase of one or more airline tickets includes providing information as part of the Web page for the customer that provides advice regarding purchasing one or more of the identified airline flights at the current offered prices for those flights.

30. The computer-readable medium of claim 17 wherein the method is further performed for other purchasable items distinct from airline tickets.

31. The computer-readable medium of claim 17 wherein the automatically determined pricing factors for each of at least one of the multiple airline flights includes multiple of an amount of time before the airline flight, a time of year of the airline flight, a degree of availability of airline tickets for the airline flight, a day of week for departure and/or arrival of the airline flight a class code for the airline flight, a fair basis code for the airline flight, whether a current day is an advance purchase day for the airline flight and behavior of competitors.

32. The computer-readable medium of claim 17 wherein the automatic determining of the pricing factors for the airline flights and/or the automatic predicting of the future prices that will be offered for identified airline flights and/or the automatic predicting of optimal times to purchase airline tickets for the identified airline flights includes using multiple of statistical-based learning, reinforcement-based learning, rule learning, machine learning, and ensemble-based learning.