Method and system for producing a weather forecast
First Claim
1. A method of producing a weather forecast comprising the steps of running an ensemble of coupled atmosphere-ocean global circulation computer models from different initial values, comparing the ocean-atmosphere states predicted by each of the models with a corresponding set of real-world observations, selecting those models which fit to a predetermined extent the set of observations, and producing a weather forecast from the ocean-atmosphere states subsequently predicted by the selected models.
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Abstract
A method of generating short-, medium-range and seasonal-timescale weather or climate forecasts by running an ensemble of computer models on a distributed computing system or network. Individual model integrations are interrogated to select those that most closely ressemble observed conditions in the present and recent past and the forecast based on a weighted average of future predictions based on this subset of the ensemble. The selection criteria determining which models are deemed to fit the observations most closely may be adjusted to optimize the use of observations in forecasting specific climate variables or geographic regions in order to develop forcasts tailored to particular applications.
35 Citations
27 Claims
- 1. A method of producing a weather forecast comprising the steps of running an ensemble of coupled atmosphere-ocean global circulation computer models from different initial values, comparing the ocean-atmosphere states predicted by each of the models with a corresponding set of real-world observations, selecting those models which fit to a predetermined extent the set of observations, and producing a weather forecast from the ocean-atmosphere states subsequently predicted by the selected models.
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26. A method of producing a weather forecast comprising the steps of running an ensemble of coupled atmosphere-ocean global circulation computer models from different initial values, comparing the ocean-atmosphere states predicted by each of the models with a corresponding set of real-world observations, selecting those models which fit to a predetermined extent the set of observations, and producing a weather forecast from the ocean-atmosphere states subsequently predicted by the selected models, wherein the step of comparing the ocean-atmosphere states predicted by each of the models with a corresponding set of real-world observations comprises comparing predicted values of model variables in a selected geographical area with corresponding real-world observations.
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27. A method of producing a weather forecast comprising the steps of running an ensemble of coupled atmosphere-ocean global circulation computer models from different initial values, comparing the ocean-atmosphere states predicted by each of the models with a corresponding set of real-world observations, selecting those models which fit to a predetermined extent the set of observations, and producing a weather forecast from the ocean-atmosphere states subsequently predicted by the selected models, wherein the step of comparing the ocean-atmosphere states predicted by each of the models with a corresponding set of real-world observations comprises analysing the model predictions to identify skilful predictors for one or more desired predictands, and wherein the models are selected on the basis of the fit between the identified predictors and the corresponding values in the set of real-world observations.
Specification