Method and apparatus for providing a virtual age estimation for remaining lifetime prediction of a system using neural networks
First Claim
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1. A method for providing a virtual age estimation for predicting the remaining lifetime of a device of a given type, comprising the steps of:
- monitoring a predetermined number of significant parameters of respective ones of a training set of devices of said given type, said parameters contributing respective wear increments;
determining coefficients of a radial basis function neural network for modeling said wear increments from said training set operated to failure and whereof the respective virtual ages are normalized substantially to a desired norm value;
deriving from said radial basis function neural network a formula for virtual age of a device of said given type; and
applying said formula to said significant parameters from a further device of the said given type for deriving wear increments for said further device.
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Abstract
A method for providing a virtual age estimation for predicting the remaining lifetime of a device of a given type, comprises the steps of monitoring a predetermined number of significant parameters of respective ones of a training set of devices of the given type, the parameters contributing respective wear increments, determining coefficients of a radial basis function neural network for modeling the wear increments determined from the training set operated to failure and whereof the respective virtual ages are normalized substantially to a desired norm value, deriving from the radial basis function neural network a formula for virtual age of a device of the given type, and applying the formula to the significant parameters from a further device of the given type for deriving wear increments for the further device.
16 Citations
36 Claims
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1. A method for providing a virtual age estimation for predicting the remaining lifetime of a device of a given type, comprising the steps of:
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monitoring a predetermined number of significant parameters of respective ones of a training set of devices of said given type, said parameters contributing respective wear increments; determining coefficients of a radial basis function neural network for modeling said wear increments from said training set operated to failure and whereof the respective virtual ages are normalized substantially to a desired norm value; deriving from said radial basis function neural network a formula for virtual age of a device of said given type; and applying said formula to said significant parameters from a further device of the said given type for deriving wear increments for said further device. - View Dependent Claims (2, 3)
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4. A method for providing a virtual age estimation for devices of a given type by predicting the remaining lifetime of a further device of said given type by computing wear increments, comprising the steps of:
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collecting data on parameters contributing wear increments in a training set of sample devices until failure, said sample devices being similar to said given device; modeling a wear increment by a radial basis function neural network; computing the sum of increments for individual sample devices in said training set to obtain a virtual age therefor, said virtual age being normalized substantially to a convenient normalized virtual age; and determining coefficients of said radial basis function neural network in a supervised training phase of said sample devices in said training set for said normalized virtual age; and deriving incremental wear data for a further device, similar to said sample devices, by utilizing device data for said further device in conjunction with said coefficients of said radial basis function neural network determined in the preceding step. - View Dependent Claims (5, 6, 7, 8, 9)
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10. A method for providing a virtual age estimation for devices by predicting the remaining lifetime of a given device by computing wear increments, comprising the steps of:
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modeling wear increments by a radial basis function neural network based on selected wear parameters which contribute wear increments for said devices; adjusting coefficients of said radial basis function neural network in accordance with data derived in a training set of such devices for deriving an equation for increments of virtual age for each device in said training set, said virtual ages being normalized substantially to a desired standard value; and applying said equation to said selected wear parameters of a further device similar to devices in said training set for computing wear increments for said further device. - View Dependent Claims (11, 12, 13, 14, 15)
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16. Apparatus for providing a virtual age estimation for predicting the remaining lifetime of a device of a given type, comprising:
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means for monitoring a predetermined number of significant parameters of respective ones of a training set of devices of said given type, said parameters contributing respective wear increments; means for determining coefficients of a radial basis function neural network for modeling said wear increments determined from said training set operated to failure and whereof the respective virtual ages are normalized substantially to a desired norm value; means for deriving from said radial basis function neural network a formula for virtual age of a device of said given type; and means for applying said formula to said significant parameters from a further device of the said given type for deriving wear increments for said further device.
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17. A method for providing a virtual age estimation for predicting the remaining lifetime of a device comprises the steps of:
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monitoring a plurality of significant variable parameters of a device during active operation of said system; selecting at least a subset of said plurality of significant variable parameters and forming therefrom a series of d-dimensional measurement vectors comprising scalars respectively corresponding to said at least a subset of said significant variable parameters; deriving respective wear increments corresponding to said scalars; modeling said wear increments by a radial basis function neural network with M hidden units, wherein M is a free parameter, resulting in a linear system of equations; determining M coefficients in a supervised training phase involving N histories of devices which failed; computing for each device the M independent sums over all wear increments, thereby obtaining an (N×
M) matrix and N equations for the virtual age of each device; andcomputing from said (N×
M) matrix and N equations a virtual age for each device. - View Dependent Claims (18, 19)
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20. A method for providing a virtual age estimation for predicting the remaining lifetime of a device comprises the steps of:
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monitoring a plurality of significant variable parameters of a device during active operation of said system; selecting at least a subset of said plurality of significant variable parameters and forming therefrom a series of d-dimensional measurement vectors comprising scalars respectively corresponding to said at least a subset of said significant variable parameters; deriving respective wear increments corresponding to said scalars; modeling said wear increments by a Gaussian basis function neural network with M hidden units, wherein M is a free parameter, resulting in a linear system of equations; determining M coefficients in a supervised training phase involving N histories of devices which failed; computing for each device the M independent sums over all wear increments, thereby obtaining an (N×
M) matrix and N equations for the virtual age of each device; andcomputing from said (N×
M) matrix and N equations a virtual age for each device. - View Dependent Claims (21, 22, 26, 27)
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23. A method for providing a virtual age estimation as recited in claim y wherein said step of modeling said wear increments by a Gaussian basis function comprises modeling by a function of the form
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( x → , z → , σ ) = exp ( - x → - z → 2 2 σ 2 ) wherein g({overscore (x)}, {overscore (z)}, σ
) represents the Gaussian basis function{overscore (x)}, {overscore (z)}, and σ
respectively represent.- View Dependent Claims (24, 25, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36)
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Specification
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Current AssigneeMonument Peak Ventures, LLC (Dominion Harbor Enterprises, LLC)
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Original AssigneeSiemens Corporate Research Incorporated (Siemens AG)
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InventorsDarken, Christian J., Loecher, Markus
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Primary Examiner(s)Knight, Anthony
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Assistant Examiner(s)Holmes, Michael B.
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Application NumberUS10/017,015Publication NumberTime in Patent Office1,586 DaysField of Search706 12- 60US Class Current706/21CPC Class CodesG06Q 10/06 Resources, workflows, human...G06Q 10/10 Office automation; Time man...
