Method and system of evaluating performance of a crop

• US 7,047,133 B1
• Filed: 12/23/2003
• Issued: 05/16/2006
• Est. Priority Date: 01/31/2003
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: Deere & Company
• Original Assignee: Deere & Company
• Inventors: Muehlbach, George Bailey, Halterman, Jerry Ray, Hunner, Gerhard Josef, Dyer, James Scott
• Primary Examiner(s): MCELHENY JR, DONALD E
• Application Number:
  US10/744,307
• Time in Patent Office: 875 Days
• Field of Search: 702/2, 702/3, 702/5, 701/50, 705/1, 705 7- 10
• US Class Current: 702/5
• CPC Class Codes: A01B 79/005 Precision agriculture
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/04 Forecasting or optimisation specially adapted for administrative or management purposes, e.g. linear programming or "cutting stock problem" market predictions or forecasting for commercial activities G06Q30/0202
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 50/02 Agriculture; Fishing; Forestry; Mining

Abstract

A method and system of evaluating crop performance facilitates characterization of the environmental impact of a geographic region or areas within the region for growing plant-life. Environmental measurements are obtained. The environmental measurements are associated with a geographic region. Each environmental measurement includes at least one of soil data and weather data. Respective location data is obtained. The location data is associated with corresponding environmental measurements. An estimated performance characteristic is determined for a particular crop planted in the geographic region based on the obtained environmental measurements and respective location data. Contours are established for one or more uniform performance areas with generally uniform performance characteristic within the geographic region by applying a decision-tree analysis to the obtained environmental measurements.

Claims

1. A method for evaluating performance of a crop, the method comprising the steps of:

obtaining environmental measurements associated with a geographic region, each environmental measurement including at least one of soil data derived from measurements of a soil characteristic sensor and weather data derived from measurements of a weather sensor;

obtaining respective location data associated with corresponding environmental measurements;

determining an estimated performance characteristic for a particular crop planted in the geographic region based on the obtained environmental measurements and respective location data;

establishing contours of one or more uniform performance areas with generally uniform performance characteristic within the geographic region comprising multiple fields by applying a decision-tree analysis to the obtained environmental measurements;

identifying critical environmental measurement identifiers associated with corresponding critical values or critical ranges for one or more of the uniform performance areas; and

estimating a geographic marketing opportunity or market size for seed or a precursor of a particular crop variety within the geographic region based on at least one of the uniform performance areas, the critical environmental measurement identifiers, and the critical values and the critical ranges, without estimating of any potential economic profit or loss of any grower within the geographic region.

2. The method according to claim 1 wherein the environmental measurements are associated with corresponding test sites defined by the location data.

3. The method according to claim 1 wherein the generally uniform performance characteristic comprise generally uniform average yield of the particular crop.

4. The method according to claim 1 wherein the generally uniform performance characteristic comprises an attribute of a crop comprising one or more of the following:

a protein content, an oil content, a protein profile, a storage characteristic, a ripening characteristic, mold resistance, a genetic characteristic, and a genetically modified characteristic.

5. The method according to claim 1 wherein the weather data is selected from the group of measurements consisting of growing degree days, rainfall, rainfall range, temperature, temperature range, night-time temperature, day-time temperature, hours of sunlight, frost date, last spring frost, first fall or winter frost, soil temperature, air temperature, and humidity.

6. The method according to claim 1 wherein the soil data comprises one or more of the following soil factor classifications:

surface structure and nutrients, water features, toxicity, soil reaction, climate, physical profile, and landscape.

7. The method according to claim 1 wherein the soil data comprises one or more of the following factors:

root depth, soil acidity, soil alkalinity, soil pH, water retaining capacity of soil, organic matter content, bulk density, clay content, available water capacity, sodium adsorption ratio, calcium carbonate content, gypsum content, cation-exchange capacity, shrink-swell cycle, shrink-swell attributes, gravel, cobble and stone content, soil porosity, soil structure, solid texture, biological activity, soil compaction, available water capacity, soil shrinkage, water table, permeability, salinity, moisture regime, temperature regime, moisture/temperature regime, physical root zone limitation, root zone available water capacity, slope, other soil phase features, ponding, degree of erosion, and flooding.

8. The method according to claim 1 wherein each established contour is associated with a group of environmental measurements, each environmental measurement having a particular average value or one particular value range.

9. The method according to claim 1 wherein each established contour defines one or more noncontiguous areas with generally uniform performance characteristics of the crop.

10. The method according to claim 1 wherein the establishing comprises applying a Classification and Regression Tree analysis as the decision-tree analysis.

11. The method according to claim 1 further comprising:

presenting the established contours on a map wherein the contours are represented by at least one of curved line segments, straight line segments, and any combination of the foregoing segments.

12. The method according to claim 1 further comprising:

presenting the established contours on a map wherein the contours are represented by different colors or different shading.

13. The method according to claim 1 wherein the particular crop is a genetically modified organism.

14. The method according to claim 1 wherein the particular crop is selected from the group consisting of genetically modified corn, genetically modified soybeans, a genetically modified potato, a genetically modified vegetable crop, and a genetically modified crop.

15. The method according to claim 1 further comprising:

identifying contours associated with specific corresponding environmental characteristics;

allocating geographic growing areas within the identified contours for growing of a corresponding particular crop during a prospective growing season.

16. The method according to claim 1 wherein the soil data comprise a preferential soil nutrient profile that is suited for growing the particular crop.

17. A system for evaluating the performance of a crop, the system comprising the steps of:

a sensing device for obtaining environmental measurements corresponding to test sites within a geographic region, each environmental measurement including at least one of soil data, weather data, rainfall, and growing degree days;

a yield estimator for determining an estimated yield for a crop planted in the geographic region based on the obtained environmental measurements; and

a mapper for establishing contours of one or more areas with generally uniform yields within the geographic region by applying decision-tree analysis to the obtained environmental measurements;

an evaluator for identifying critical environmental measurement identifiers associated with corresponding critical values or critical ranges for one or more of the uniform performance areas; and

a data analyzer for estimating a geographic area for a customer base or market size for seed or precursor of a particular crop variety based on at least one of the uniform performance areas, the critical environmental measurement identifiers, and the critical values and the critical ranges, without estimating any potential economic profit or loss of any grower within the geographic region.

18. The system of claim 17 wherein the soil data comprises at least one of the following soil factors:

root depth, soil acidity, soil alkalinity, soil pH, water retaining capacity of soil, organic matter content, bulk density, clay content, available water capacity, sodium adsorption ratio, calcium carbonate content, gypsum content, cation-exchange capacity, shrink-swell cycle, shrink-swell attributes, gravel, cobble and stone content, soil porosity, soil structure, solid texture, biological activity, soil compaction, available water capacity, soil shrinkage, water table, permeability, salinity, moisture regime, temperature regime, moisture/temperature regime, physical root zone limitation, root zone available water capacity, slope, other soil phase features, ponding, degree of erosion, and flooding.

19. The system of claim 17 wherein the yield estimator applies a decision-tree analysis to determine critical environmental measurements associated with corresponding generally uniform yield ranges for the particular crop.