Space weather prediction system and method

• US 7,096,121 B2
• Filed: 11/09/2004
• Issued: 08/22/2006
• Est. Priority Date: 04/18/2000
• Status: Expired due to Term

• Current Assignee: Carmelo Systems Inc.
• Original Assignee: Carmelo Systems Inc.
• Inventors: Intriligator, Devrie S, Intriligator, James M
• Primary Examiner(s): MCELHENY JR, DONALD E
• Application Number:
  US10/985,021
• Publication Number:
  US 20050159894A1
• Time in Patent Office: 651 Days
• Field of Search: 702/2, 702/3, 702/4
• US Class Current: 702/3
• CPC Class Codes: G01W 1/10 Devices for predicting weather conditions computers per se G06; display devices G09

Abstract

A system and method of forecasting space weather (at Earth or another location) based on identifying complex patterns in solar, interplanetary, or geophysical data. These data may include current or historical measurements and/or modeled data (predicted or simulated). Data patterns (both non-event and event-related) are identified (even when another event is occurring). Such patterns may vary with recent/cyclic variations in solar (e.g. solar max/min), interplanetary, or geophysical activity. Embodiments are built around: (1) templates, (2) expert systems, (3) neural networks, (4) hybrid systems comprising combinations of (1), (2) and/or (3), and multimodal intelligent systems. Forecasts are customized and/or updated as new data arise and as systems are dynamically modified (e.g. via feedback between system parts). Numerical or other indexes are generated representing: forecasts, associated confidence levels, etc. The invention predicts events/non-events and/or other values or parameters associated with space weather (e.g. Dst, event onset time, duration, etc.)

Claims

1. A method for notifying a user of possible space weather events comprising:

providing predictions or identifications of possible space weather conditions to a notification module, the notification module comprising

user data specifying one or more of a position of a user'"'"'s asset or a susceptibility of the user'"'"'s asset to space weather events,

means for receiving the predictions or identifications of the space weather conditions, and

data specifying rules for actions to be performed in response to the received predictions or identifications of space weather conditions; and

performing the actions specified in the rules based on the provided predictions or identifications.

2. The method of claim 1 further comprising the step of providing information regarding one or more of terrorist activities, warfare, or jamming incidents.

3. The method of claim 1 wherein the identifications of possible space weather conditions comprise one or more of information regarding a loss of HF or SATCOM communications, noise in imaging systems, variations within one or more known signal streams, a loss of lock of GPS receivers during warfare or other military operations, agriculture, or damage from impacts.

4. The method of claim 3 wherein the known signal streams comprises one or more of a TV transmission, a GPS transmission, or a spacecraft transmission.

5. The method of claim 1 further comprising the step of:

providing information regarding one or more natural non-space weather events; and

wherein the step of performing comprises performing the actions specified in the rules based on the provided predictions or identifications and information regarding the one or more natural non-space weather events.

6. The method of claim 5 wherein the one or more natural non-space weather events are one or more of a meteorological event, a forest fire, a seismic disturbance, or a volcanic disturbance.

7. The method of claim 1 further comprising the step of:

providing information regarding one or more man-made events; and

wherein the step of performing comprises performing the actions specified in the rules based on the provided predictions or identifications and information regarding the one or more man-made events.

8. The method of claim 7 wherein the information regarding the one or more man-made events comprises information regarding one or more of a terrorist act, terrorist activities, a sabotage act, a human or accidental error or incident, a political or civilian act, jamming, warfare, a military act, or a nuclear explosion.

9. The method of claim 1 wherein the actions specified in the rules comprise one or more of encryption of data, independent verification of results and data, or business process changes.

10. The method of claim 1 further comprising the step of:

providing other information regarding one or more of a machine or system error, a biological act, a chemical act, or a radiation act; and

wherein the step of performing comprises performing the actions specified in the rules based on the provided predictions or identifications and the provided other information.

11. The method of claim 1 wherein the predictions or identifications are provided in part by an intelligent agent.

23. The method of claim 1 wherein the actions specified in the rules comprise the identification of one or more of a means of communication or a flight path to be used during periods of elevated radiation.

24. The method of claim 1 wherein the actions specified in the rules comprise the identification of analyses to be conducted when precursory signs are discovered.

25. The method of claim 1 wherein the predictions or identifications of possible space weather conditions comprise one or more of a severity or location of one or more space weather conditions.

26. The method of claim 1 wherein the predictions or identifications of possible space weather conditions comprise stand-in variables correlated with or known to often precede space weather conditions.

27. The method of claim 26 wherein the stand-in variables identify or predict one or more of high radiation levels for astronauts or airline crews, loss of lock of GPS receivers during warfare or other military operations, loss of HF or SATCOM communications during warfare, terrorist activities, jamming incidents, elevated radiation levels near assets of interest, lack of natural radiation bursts, or ground-based power outages.

28. The method of claim 1 wherein the predictions or identifications provided in the step of providing predictions or identifications are based on one or more of simulated or real data.

29. The method of claim 1 wherein one or more of the predictions or identifications or rules are based on specific values derived using one or more of a formula, look-up table, or range of values.

30. The method of claim 1 wherein the notification module further comprises data regarding a presence or absence of warfare and wherein at least one of the rules for action depend on the data regarding the presence or absence of warfare.

31. The method of claim 1 wherein the actions specified in the rules comprise one or more of reconfiguring spacecraft or other resources, or repositioning or utilizing alternative space-based or ground-based assets.

32. The method of claim 1 wherein the actions specified in the rules comprise utilizing alternative assets for one or more of GPS, search and rescue, communications, broadcasts, telemedicine, credit card transactions, or movie-editing.

33. The method of claim 1 wherein the actions specified in the rules comprise one or more of rescheduling replacement of damaged equipment, rescheduling military operations, rescheduling manufacturing operations, rescheduling launches or landings, rescheduling EVAs, rescheduling oil drillings, or rescheduling commercial airline bookings for individual passengers with high susceptibility to radiation exposure.

34. The method of claim 1 wherein the actions specified in the rules depend upon the location of the user'"'"'s asset.

35. The method of claim 1 further comprising the step of:

providing other information regarding one or more thresholds associated with one or more of biological, chemical, or radiation contaminants in water supplies, air supplies, or food supplies, or the number of people taken ill with food poisoning, or the number of people entering hospitals with specific symptoms; and

wherein the step of performing comprises performing the actions specified in the rules based on the provided predictions or identifications and the provided other information.

36. The method of claim 1 wherein the predictions or identifications are provided by one or more prediction/identification modules.

37. The method of claim 1 wherein the predictions or identifications comprise one or more of an extreme solar wind pressure pulse, a formation of a new radiation belt, particle precipitation, electromagnetic phenomena, magnetic merging, field aligned currents, perpendicular currents, ionospheric and magnetospheric electric fields, the auroral oval, polar cap potentials, polar cap absorption, density gradients, global TEC variations, ionospheric scintillations, sudden ionospheric disturbances, storm-induced Joule heating, UV heating, FUV phenomena, waves, or pitch angles.

38. The method of claim 1 wherein the predictions or identifications predict or identify one or more of Kp, Dst, AU, AE, AL, or SI.

12. A system for notifying a user of possible space weather events comprising:

a notification module comprising

user data specifying one or more of a position of a user'"'"'s asset or a susceptibility of the user'"'"'s asset to space weather events,

means for receiving predictions or identifications of possible space weather conditions,

data specifying rules for actions to be performed in response to the received predictions or identifications of space weather conditions, and

means for initiating the actions specified in the rules based on received predictions or identifications.

13. The system of claim 12 wherein the notification module further comprises means for receiving information regarding one or more terrorist activities, warfare, or jamming incidents.

14. The system of claim 12 wherein the identifications of possible space weather conditions are based on information regarding one or more of a loss of HF or SATCOM communications, noise in imaging systems, variations within one or more known signal streams, a loss of lock of GPS receivers during warfare or other military operations, agriculture, or damage from impacts.

15. The system of claim 14 wherein the known signal streams comprises one or more of a TV transmission, a GPS transmission, or a spacecraft transmission.

16. The system of claim 12 further comprising:

means for receiving information regarding one or more natural non-space weather events; and

wherein the means for initiating initiates the actions specified in the rules based on received predictions or identifications and information regarding the one or more natural non-space weather events.

17. The system of claim 16 wherein the one or more natural non-space weather events are one or more of a meteorological event, a forest fire, a seismic disturbance, or a volcanic disturbance.

18. The system of claim 12 further comprising:

means for receiving information regarding one or more man-made events; and

wherein the means for initiating initiates the actions specified in the rules based on received predictions or identifications and information regarding the one or more man-made events.

19. The system of claim 18 wherein the information regarding the one or more man-made events comprises information regarding one or more of a terrorist act, terrorist activities, a sabotage act, a human or accidental error or incident, a political or civilian act, jamming, warfare, a military act, or a nuclear explosion.

20. The system of claim 12 wherein the actions specified in the rules comprise one or more of encryption of data, independent verification of results and data, or business process changes.

21. The system of claim 12 further comprising:

means for receiving other information regarding one or more of a machine or system error, a biological act, a chemical act, or a radiation act; and

wherein the means for initiating initiates the actions specified in the rules based on received predictions or identifications and the provided other information.

22. The system of claim 12 wherein the predictions or identifications are provided in part by an intelligent agent.

39. The system of claim 12 wherein the actions specified in the rules comprise the identification of one or more of a means of communication or a flight path to be used during periods of elevated radiation.

40. The system of claim 12 wherein the actions specified in the rules comprise the identification of analyses to be conducted when precursory signs are discovered.

41. The system of claim 12 wherein the predictions or identifications of possible space weather conditions comprise one or more of a severity or location of one or more space weather conditions.

42. The system of claim 12 wherein the predictions or identifications of possible space weather conditions comprise stand-in variables correlated with or known to often precede space weather conditions.

43. The system of claim 42 wherein the stand-in variables identify or predict one or more of high radiation levels for astronauts or airline crews, loss of lock of GPS receivers during warfare or other military operations, loss of HF or SATCOM communications during warfare, terrorist activities, jamming incidents, elevated radiation levels near assets of interest, lack of natural radiation bursts, or ground-based power outages.

44. The system of claim 12 wherein the predictions or identifications received by the means for receiving are based on one or more of simulated or real data.

45. The system of claim 12 wherein one or more of the predictions or identifications or rules are based on specific values derived using one or more of a formula, look-up table, or range of values.

46. The system of claim 12 wherein the notification module further comprises data regarding a presence or absence of warfare and wherein at least one of the rules for action depend on the data regarding the presence or absence of warfare.

47. The system of claim 12 wherein the actions specified in the rules comprise one or more of reconfiguring spacecraft or other resources, or repositioning or utilizing alternative space-based or ground-based assets.

48. The system of claim 12 wherein the actions specified in the rules comprise utilizing alternative assets for one or more of GPS, search and rescue, communications, broadcasts, telemedicine, credit card transactions, or movie-editing.

49. The system of claim 12 wherein the actions specified in the rules comprise one or more of rescheduling replacement of damaged equipment, rescheduling military operations, rescheduling manufacturing operations, rescheduling launches or landings, rescheduling EVAs, rescheduling oil drillings, or rescheduling commercial airline bookings for individual passengers with high susceptibility to radiation exposure.

50. The system of claim 12 wherein the actions specified in the rules depend upon the location of the user'"'"'s asset.

51. The system of claim 12 further comprising:

means for providing other information regarding one or more thresholds associated with one or more of biological, chemical, or radiation contaminants in water supplies, air supplies, or food supplies, or the number of people taken ill with food poisoning, or the number of people entering hospitals with specific symptoms; and

wherein the means for initiating initiates the actions specified in the rules based on the provided predictions or identifications and the provided other information.

52. The system of claim 12 wherein the predictions or identifications are provided by one or more prediction/identification modules.

53. The system of claim 12 wherein the predictions or identifications comprise one or more of an extreme solar wind pressure pulse, a formation of a new radiation belt, particle precipitation, electromagnetic phenomena, magnetic merging, field aligned currents, perpendicular currents, ionospheric and magnetospheric electric fields, the auroral oval, polar cap potentials, polar cap absorption, density gradients, global TEC variations, ionospheric scintillations, sudden ionospheric disturbances, storm-induced Joule heating, UV heating, FUV phenomena, waves, or pitch angles.

54. The system of claim 12 wherein the predictions or identifications predict or identify one or more of Kp, Dst, AU, AE, AL, or SI.