System and method for weather adapted, business performance forecasting

• US 7,103,560 B1
• Filed: 06/16/1998
• Issued: 09/05/2006
• Est. Priority Date: 01/18/1996
• Status: Expired due to Fees

• Current Assignee: Planalytics, Inc.
• Original Assignee: Planalytics, Inc.
• Inventors: Mann, Steven, Pearson, Douglas R., Light, Harve C., Rodriguez, Suzzane M., Caine, Diane, Shapiro, Ron M., Fox, Frederic D.
• Primary Examiner(s): Poinvil, Frantzy
• Assistant Examiner(s): Kanof, Pedro
• Application Number:
  US09/097,714
• Time in Patent Office: 3,003 Days
• Field of Search: 705/1, 705 7- 11, 705/22, 705/26, 707/1, 707/10, 707/100
• US Class Current: 705/7.34
• CPC Class Codes: G01K 2203/00 Application of thermometers in cryogenics
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/00 Administration; Management
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0205 Location or geographical consideration

Abstract

A system and method for forecasting future retail performance are described herein. The system includes a storage device that stores a sales history database, a weather history database, and a weather forecast database. An analyzer determines the extent to which past retail performance of a plurality of products at a plurality of locations was affected by weather using the sales history database and the weather history database. A configurator, coupled to the analyzer, estimates expected future retail performance of the products at the stores for a plurality of future time periods using the weather forecast database and results produced by the analyzer. A graphical user interface, coupled to the analyzer and the configurator, enables users to view and manipulate results produced by the analyzer and the configurator to thereby forecast future retail performance of the products at the locations.

Claims

1. A computer implemented method of forecasting performance of a weather-impacted endeavor, wherein said endeavor is distributed among a plurality of units located in a plurality of geographical locations, comprising the steps of:

(1) storing a history database, a weather pattern database that includes a weather pattern classification of a weather parameter, a weather history database, and a weather forecast database;

(2) determining the extent to which past performance of the plurality of units at the plurality of locations was affected by weather using said history database, said weather pattern database, and said weather history database;

(3) estimating expected future performance of the plurality of units at the plurality of locations for a plurality of future time periods using said weather forecast database and results produced by operation of step (2); and

(4) enabling a user to view and manipulate results produced by operation of steps (2) and (3) whereby said results are used by said user to forecast future performance of the plurality of units at the plurality of locations for said time periods.

2. The method of claim 1, wherein step (2) comprises the steps of:

(a) selecting a first prior year and a second prior year, said second prior year being before said first prior year;

(b) selecting a location and an unit;

(c) selecting a weather pattern; and

(d) determining the extent to which said selected weather pattern affected performance of said selected unit in said selected location during said first prior year and said second prior year.

3. The method of claim 1, wherein step (4) comprises the step of:

(a) displaying to said user predicted future performance of selected units at selected locations in view of predicted weather at said selected locations.

4. The method of claim 1, wherein step (4) comprises the step of:

(a) identifying and displaying any future periods where weather patterns selected by said user are predicted to occur.

5. The method of claim 4, wherein step (a) comprises the steps of:

(i) enabling a user to enter weather search criteria;

(ii) enabling the user to enter one or more locations;

(iii) searching through said weather history database or said weather forecast database to locate time periods where said weather search criteria are satisfied; and

(iv) displaying results of said weather search means to said user.

31. The method of claim 1, wherein said determining of step (2) is performed by an analyzer.

32. The method of claim 1, wherein said estimating of step (3) is performed by a configurator.

33. The method of claim 4, wherein said determining of step (2) is performed by an analyzer.

34. The method of claim 4, wherein said estimating of step (3) is performed by a configurator.

6. A computer program product comprising a computer usable medium having control logic stored therein for causing a computer to provide business performance forecasting, said control logic comprising:

first computer readable program code means for causing the computer to access a business history database, a weather pattern database that includes a weather pattern classification of a weather parameter, a weather history database and a weather forecast database;

second computer readable program code means for causing the computer to determine the extent to which past business performance of a plurality of business units at a plurality of locations was affected by weather using said business history database, said weather pattern database, and said weather history database;

third computer readable program code means for causing the computer to estimate expected future business performance of said business units at said locations for a plurality of future time periods using said weather forecast database and results produced by operation of said second computer readable program code means; and

fourth computer readable program code means for causing the computer to enable a user to view and manipulate results produced by operation of said second and said third computer readable program code means to thereby forecast future business performance of said business units at said locations for said time periods.

7. The computer program product of claim 6, wherein said second computer readable program code means comprises:

fifth computer readable program code means for causing the computer to receive a first prior year input and a second prior year input from said user, said second prior year being before said first prior year;

sixth computer readable program code means for causing the computer to receive a location input and a business unit input from said user;

seventh computer readable program code means for causing the computer to receive a weather pattern input from said user; and

eighth computer readable program code means for causing the computer to determine the extent to which said weather pattern affected business performance of said business unit in said location during said first prior year and said second prior year.

8. The computer program product of claim 6, wherein said third computer readable program code means comprises:

fifth computer readable program code means for causing the computer to receive a business unit input from said user;

sixth computer readable program code means for causing the computer to receive a location input from said user;

seventh computer readable program code means for causing the computer to receive a future period in a future time span input from said user; and

eighth computer readable program code means for causing the computer to estimate business performance of said business unit in said location during said future period in accordance with weather predicted to occur in said location during said future period.

9. The computer program product of claim 8, wherein said fourth computer readable program code means comprises:

fifth computer readable program code means for causing the computer to enable an operator to specify parameters for a customized view; and

sixth computer readable program code means for causing the computer to filter said business history database, said weather history database, and said weather forecast database in accordance with said specified parameters to create said customized view.

10. The computer program product of claim 6 wherein said fourth computer readable program code means comprises:

fifth computer readable program code means for causing the computer to display to said user the manner in which past weather impacted business performance of selected business units in selected locations.

11. The computer program product of claim 6, wherein said fourth computer readable program code means comprises:

fifth computer readable program code means for causing the computer to display to said user predicted future business performance of selected business units at selected locations in view of predicted weather at said selected locations.

12. The computer program product of claim 6, wherein said fourth computer readable program code means comprises:

fifth computer readable program code means for causing the computer to identify and display any future periods where user-specified weather patterns are predicted to occur.

13. The computer program product of claim 6, further comprising:

fifth computer readable program code means for causing the computer to identify and display any sequence of time periods that match user-specified sequences of weather patterns.

14. The computer program product of claim 13, wherein said fifth computer readable program code means comprises:

sixth computer readable program code means for causing the computer to enable said user to enter weather search criteria;

seventh computer readable program code means for causing the computer to enable said user to enter one or more locations;

eighth computer readable program code means for causing the computer to search through said weather history database or said weather forecast database to locate time periods where said weather search criteria are satisfied; and

ninth computer readable program code means for causing the computer to display results of said eighth computer readable program code means to said user.

15. A system for forecasting business performance, comprising:

a storage device storing business history data, weather pattern data including a weather pattern classification of a weather parameter, weather history data, and weather forecast data;

an analyzer to determine the extent to which past business performance of a business unit at a plurality of locations was affected by weather using at least said business history data, said weather pattern data, and said weather history data;

a configurator, coupled to said analyzer, to estimate expected future business performance of said business unit at said locations for a plurality of future time periods using at least said weather forecast data and results produced by said analyzer; and

a user interface, coupled to said analyzer and said configurator, to enable a user to at least view results produced by said configurator to thereby forecast future business performance of said business unit at said locations.

16. The system of claim 15, wherein said business unit, whose past performance is represented by at least some of said business history data, is a utilities industry product.

17. The system of claim 16, wherein said utilities industry product is electricity.

18. The system of claim 15 wherein said business unit, whose past performance is represented by at least some of said business history data, is an agricultural product.

19. The system of claim 18, wherein said agricultural product is timber.

20. The system of claim 15, wherein said business unit, whose past performance is represented by at least some of said business history data, is an insurance-related product.

21. A computer implemented method of forecasting business performance, comprising the steps of:

(1) accessing business history data, weather pattern data including a weather pattern classification of a weather parameter, weather history data, and weather forecast data;

(2) determining the extent to which past business performance of a business unit at a plurality of locations was affected by weather using at least said business history data, said weather pattern data, and said weather history data;

(3) estimating expected future business performance of said business unit at said locations for a plurality of future time periods using at least said weather forecast data and results produced by step (2); and

(4) enabling a user to at least view results produced by step (3) to thereby forecast future business performance of said business unit at said locations for said time periods.

22. The method of claim 21, wherein said business unit, whose past performance is represented by at least some of said business history data, is a utilities industry product.

23. The method of claim 22, wherein said utilities industry product is electricity.

24. The method of claim 21, wherein said business unit, whose past performance is represented by at least some of said business history data, is an agricultural product.

25. The method of claim 24, wherein said agricultural product is timber.

26. A computer program product comprising a computer usable medium having control logic stored therein for causing a computer to forecast business performance, said control logic comprising:

first computer readable program code means for causing the computer to access business history data, weather pattern data including a weather pattern classification of a weather parameter, weather history data, and weather forecast data;

second computer readable program code means for causing the computer to determine the extent to which past business performance of a business unit at a plurality of locations was affected by weather using at least said business history data, weather pattern data, and said weather history data;

third computer readable program code means for causing the computer to estimate expected future business performance of said business unit at said locations for a plurality of future time periods using at least said weather forecast data and results produced by said second computer readable program code means; and

fourth computer readable program code means for causing the computer to enable a user to at least view results produced by said third computer readable program code means to thereby forecast future business performance of said business unit at said locations for said time periods.

27. The computer program product of claim 26, wherein said business unit, whose past performance is represented by at least some of said business history data, is a utilities industry product.

28. The computer program product of claim 27, wherein said utilities industry product is electricity.

29. The computer program product of claim 26, wherein said business unit, whose past performance is represented by at least some of said business history data, is an agricultural product.

30. The computer program product of claim 29, wherein said agricultural product is timber locations was affected by weather using at least said business history data, weather pattern data and said weather history data;

third computer readable program code means for causing the computer to estimate expected future business performance of said business unit at said locations for a plurality of future time periods using at least said weather forecast data and results produced by said second computer readable program code means; and

fourth computer readable program code means for causing the computer to

enable a user to at least view results produced by said third computer readable program code means to thereby forecast future business performance of said business unit at said locations for said time periods.