Method for predicting performance of a future product

• US 7,177,773 B2
• Filed: 05/31/2005
• Issued: 02/13/2007
• Est. Priority Date: 05/31/2005
• Status: Expired due to Fees

• Current Assignee: Caterpillar Incorporated
• Original Assignee: Caterpillar Incorporated
• Inventors: Simpson, Trent A., Jones, Nelson A., Lonn, Katherine Jane, Tyler, David A.
• Primary Examiner(s): Nghiem; Michael
• Assistant Examiner(s): Walling; Meagan S
• Application Number:
  US11/139,686
• Publication Number:
  US 20060271346A1
• Time in Patent Office: 623 Days
• Field of Search: 702/81, 702/84, 702/179, 702/181, 702/182, 714/1, 714/25, 714/37
• US Class Current: 702/81
• CPC Class Codes: G06F 11/008 Reliability or availability analysis

Abstract

A method for predicting performance of a future product is disclosed. The method includes generating historical data for at least one product and generating a Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) for the at least one product. The method also includes determining a relationship between an FMEA indicator of the FMEA generated for the at least one product and the historical data for the at least one product. The method further includes generating an FMEA for the future product and applying the determined relationship to the FMEA indicator from the FMEA generated for the future product to predict performance for the future product.

Claims

1. A method for predicting performance of a future product, the method comprising:

generating historical data for at least one product;

generating a Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) for the at least one product;

determining a relationship between an FMEA indicator of the FMEA generated for the at least one product and the historical data for the at least one product;

generating an FMEA for the future product;

applying the determined relationship to the FMEA indicator from the FMEA generated for the future product to predict performance of the future product corresponding to the historical data; and

storing an indicator of the predicted performance of the future product.

2. The method of claim 1, wherein the at least one product includes a first product that is currently available to the marketplace.

3. The method of claim 2, wherein the at least one product further includes a second product that is a predecessor to the first product.

4. The method of claim 1, wherein the historical data includes Dealer Repair Frequency.

5. The method of claim 1, wherein the historical data includes Defects Per Million.

6. The method of claim 1, wherein the FMEAs are Design FMEAs.

7. The method of claim 6, wherein the performance includes reliability.

8. The method of claim 1, wherein the FMEAs are Process FMEAs.

9. The method of claim 8, wherein the performance includes quality.

10. The method of claim 1, wherein the FMEA indicator is an occurrence value.

11. The method of claim 1, further including applying a severity value from the FMEA generated for the future product to the performance predicted for the future product to predict a warranty cost associated with implementation of the future product.

12. The method of claim 1, further including applying an average cost per warranty claim for the at least one product to the performance predicted for the future product to predict a warranty cost associated with implementation of the future product.

13. The method of claim 12, wherein:

determining a relationship includes determining a relationship between the root mean square of the occurrence value of the FMEA generated for the at least one product and the historical data for the at least one product; and

applying the determined relationship includes applying the determined relationship to the root mean square of the occurrence value from the FMEA generated for the future product.

14. The method of claim 1, further including generating a warranty program based on the predicted performance for the future product.

15. A computer system, comprising:

a console;

at least one input device; and

a central processing unit configured to;

receive historical data for at least one product;

receive a completed Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) for the at least one product;

determine a relationship between an FMEA indicator of the FMEA generated for the at least one product and the historical data for the at least one product;

receive a completed FMEA for a future product;

apply the determined relationship to the FMEA indicator from the FMEA generated for the future product to predict performance for the future product; and

store an indicator of the predicted performance of the future product.

16. The computer system of claim 15, wherein the at least one product includes a first product that is currently available to the marketplace.

17. The method of claim 16, wherein the at least one product further includes a second product that is a predecessor to the first product.

18. The computer system of claim 15, wherein the historical data includes Dealer Repair Frequency.

19. The computer system of claim 15, wherein the historical data includes Defects Per Million.

20. The computer system of claim 15, wherein the FMEAs are Design FMEA.

21. The computer system of claim 20, wherein the performance includes reliability.

22. The computer system of claim 15, wherein the FMEAs are Process FMEAs.

23. The computer system of claim 22, wherein the performance includes quality.

24. The computer system of claim 15, wherein the FMEA indicator is an occurrence value.

25. The computer system of claim 24, wherein the central processing unit is further configured to apply a severity value from the FMEA generated for the future product to the performance predicted for the future product to predict a warranty cost associated with implementation of the future product.

26. The computer system of claim 24, wherein the central processing unit is further configured to apply an average cost per warranty claim for the at least one product to the performance predicted for the future product to predict a warranty cost associated with implementation of the future product.

27. The computer system of claim 15, wherein the central processing unit is further configured to generate a validation plan based on the predicted performance for the future product.

28. The computer system of claim 15, further including at least one database, wherein the central processing unit is further configured to retrieve the historical data for the at least one product from the at least one data base.

29. A computer readable medium for use on a computer system, the computer readable medium having computer executable instructions for performing a method comprising:

receiving historical data for at least one product;

receiving a Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) for the at least one product;

determining a relationship between an FMEA indicator of the FMEA generated for the at least one product and the historical data for the at least one product;

receiving an FMEA for a future product;

applying the determined relationship to the FMEA indicator from the FMEA generated for the future product to predict performance for the future product; and

storing an indicator of the predicted performance of the future product.

30. The computer readable medium of claim 29, wherein the at least one product includes a first product that is currently available to the marketplace.

31. The computer readable medium of claim 29, wherein the at least one product further includes a second product that is a predecessor to the first product.

32. The computer readable medium of claim 29, wherein the historical data includes Dealer Repair Frequency.

33. The computer readable medium of claim 29, wherein the historical data includes Defects Per Million.

34. The computer readable medium of claim 29, wherein the FMEAs are Design FMEA.

35. The computer readable medium of claim 34, wherein the performance includes reliability.

36. The computer readable medium of claim 29, wherein the FMEAs are Process FMEAs.

37. The computer readable medium of claim 36, wherein the performance includes quality.

38. The computer readable medium of claim 29, wherein the FMEA indicator is an occurrence value.

39. The computer readable medium of claim 29, wherein the method further includes applying a severity value from the FMEA generated for the future product to the performance predicted for the future product to predict a warranty cost associated with the implementation of the future product.

40. The computer readable medium of claim 29, wherein the method further includes applying an average cost per warranty claim for the at least one product to the performance predicted for the future product to predict a warranty cost associated with the implementation of the future product.

41. The computer readable medium of claim 29, wherein:

determining a relationship includes determining a relationship between the root mean square of the occurrence value of the FMEA generated for the at least one product and the historical data for the at least one product; and

applying the determined relationship includes applying the determined relationship to the root mean square of the occurrence value from the FMEA generated for the future product.

42. The computer readable medium of claim 29, wherein the method further includes generating a validation plan based on the predicted performance for the future product.