System and method for forecasting pollen in accordance with weather conditions

• US 7,184,891 B1
• Filed: 06/15/2004
• Issued: 02/27/2007
• Est. Priority Date: 06/15/2004
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: DTN, LLC (TBG AG)
• Original Assignee: The Weather Channel Incorporated (CF Entertainment, Inc.)
• Inventors: Kuleszynski, Christopher R., Boyko, Kristin E., Bernas, Timothy W., Brown, Cameron C., Rose, Bruce L. Jr.
• Primary Examiner(s): MCELHENY JR, DONALD E
• Application Number:
  US10/868,106
• Time in Patent Office: 987 Days
• Field of Search: 702/2, 702/3, 702/5, 703/2, 703/11
• US Class Current: 702/3
• CPC Class Codes: G01W 1/10 Devices for predicting weather conditions computers per se G06; display devices G09

Abstract

A method and system for providing an improved pollen forecast for tree, grass, and ragweed pollen levels. The system provides a searchable, two-day forecast for zip codes and cities within the continental United States. The forecast is based on observed and forecast weather conditions and observed pollen conditions. A growing degree day value is determined that is used to represent trends in pollen activity. From this information, a pollen forecast is presented on a “Low-Moderate-High-Very High” scale in order to quickly convey to the user the forecasted pollen count.

Claims

1. A method of providing a pollen forecast for a geographic region, comprising:

obtaining a current pollen observation;

obtaining a precipitation forecast;

determining a growing degree day quantity;

determining a first pollen forecast for a current day in accordance with said current pollen observation, said precipitation forecast, and said growing degree day factor; and

determining a second pollen forecast for a next day in accordance with said first pollen forecast, said precipitation forecast, and said growing degree day factor; and

conveying to a user one or more of said first pollen forecast and said second pollen forecast for a geographic region.

2. The method of claim 1, further comprising determining said growing degree day in accordance with the following relationship:

Growing Degree Day=((High Temp+Low Temp)/2)−

Base Temp

wherein said Base Temp is dependent on a plant species, and said High Temp and said Low Temp are the high and low temperature, respectively, for a particular day.

3. The method of claim 1, further comprising determining a pollen onset, a pollen peak, and a pollen offset, wherein said pollen onset, said pollen peak, and said pollen offset are correlated to a cumulative growing degree day value to identify a function that a plant is performing.

4. The method of claim 3, further comprising determining a trend of pollen functionality based on said pollen onset and said cumulative growing degree day and using said trend in determining said growing degree day quantity.

5. The method of claim 4, further comprising accounting for colder or warmer seasons and determining a pollen behavior distribution before and after said pollen peak.

6. The method of claim 1, wherein an observed high temperature and an observed low temperature from weather forecasts are used in determining said growing degree day quantity.

7. The method of claim 6, wherein said weather forecasts are used to adjust a cumulative growing degree day for each location, adjust a forecast growing degree day for said first day, and adjust said observed pollen level in accordance with a trend of pollen functionality.

8. The method of claim 7, further comprising determining a number of hours of precipitation forecasted and an intensity of said precipitation.

9. The method of claim 8, further comprising dividing said precipitation into bins to allow for qualitative amounts of removing pollen from the atmosphere.

10. The method of claim 9, further comprising defining a contribution of said precipitation in accordance with the following relationships:

Contribution1=−

(Hours of Bin3)*1/6, wherein a maximum contribution=−

1.5

Contribution2=−

(Hours of Bin2)*1/9, wherein a maximum contribution =−

1.0

Contribution3=−

(Hours of Bin1)*1/15, wherein a maximum contribution =−

1.0

and wherein a maximum sum of the Contribution1, Contribution2 and Contribution3 is −

2.0.

11. The method of claim 10, further comprising determining said pollen forecast according to the following relationships:

P_f1=(1−

w_adj1)*P_ob+(w_adj1)P_GDD1+W₁

P_f2=(1−

w_adj2)*P_f1+(w_adj2)P_GDD2+W₂

wherein

P_f1=Pollen Forecast for said first day

P_ob=Pollen Observation

W_adj1=growing degree day derived trend percentage contribution for said first day

P_GDD1 growing degree day derived Pollen Level for said first day

W₁=Weather Contribution said first day

P_f2=Pollen Forecast for said second day

W_adj2=growing degree day derived trend percentage contribution for said second day

P_GDD2=growing degree day derived pollen level for said second day

W₂=Weather Contribution for said second day.

12. A method of determining a pollen forecast for a day, comprising:

determining a weather forecast for said day;

obtaining a pollen observation;

determining pollen trend data;

applying said weather forecast for said day, said pollen observation and said pollen trend data to determine said pollen forecast; and

conveying to a user said pollen forecast for said day.

13. The method of claim 12, further comprising:

determining a growing degree day value in accordance with the following relationship;

Growing Degree Day=((High Temp+Low Temp)/2)−

Base Temp;

determining a pollen onset, a pollen peak, and a pollen offset; and

correlating said pollen onset, said pollen peak, and said pollen offset to a cumulative growing degree day,

wherein said Base Temp is dependent on a plant species, and said High Temp and said Low Temp are the high and low temperature, respectively, for a particular day.

14. The method of claim 13, wherein said cumulative growing degree day accounts for seasonal variations in pollen behavior before and after said pollen peak.

15. The method of claim 13, wherein an observed high temperature and an observed low temperature from said weather forecast are used in determining said growing degree day quantity.

16. The method of claim 12, wherein said weather forecast is used to adjust a cumulative growing degree day for each location, adjust a forecast growing degree day for said day, and adjust said observed pollen level in accordance with said pollen trend data.

17. The method of claim 16, further comprising determining a number of hours of precipitation forecasted and an intensity of said precipitation.

18. The method of claim 17, further comprising dividing said precipitation into quantized amounts related to removal of said pollen from the atmosphere by said precipitation.

19. The method of claim 17, further comprising determining said pollen forecast according to the following relationship:

P_f1=(1−

w_adj1)*P_ob+(w_adj1)P_GDD1+W₁

wherein

P_f1=Pollen Forecast for said day

P_ob=Pollen Observation

W_adj1=growing degree day derived trend percentage contribution for said day

P_GDD1=growing degree day derived Pollen Level for said day

W₁=Weather Contribution said day.

20. A system for providing a pollen forecast, comprising:

a database that stores information about pollen and weather conditions related to geographic locations; and

a processor programmed to execute instructions for performing the following;

determining pollen trend data and applying said pollen trend data to a day; and

applying said weather conditions, said pollen conditions and said pollen trend data to determine said pollen forecast; and

and output system that generates an indication representative of said pollen forecast.

21. The system of claim 20, wherein said processor further determines determining a growing degree day value in accordance with the following relationship:

Growing Degree Day=((High Temp+Low Temp)/2)−

Base Temp;

determining a pollen onset, a pollen peak, and a pollen offset; and

correlating said pollen onset, said pollen peak, and said pollen offset to a cumulative growing degree day,

wherein said Base Temp is dependent on a plant species, and said High Temp and said Low Temp are the high and low temperature, respectively, for a particular day.

22. The system of claim 20, wherein said weather conditions are used to adjust a cumulative growing degree day for each location, adjust a forecast growing degree day, and adjust said pollen conditions in accordance with said pollen trend data.

23. The system of claim 22, wherein said processor determines a number of hours of precipitation forecasted and an intensity of said precipitation.

24. The system of claim 22, wherein said processor determines said pollen forecast according to the following relationship:

P_f1=(1−

w_adj1)*P_ob+(w_adj1)P_GDD1+W₁

wherein

P_f1=Pollen Forecast for said day

P_ob=Pollen Observation

W_adj1=growing degree day derived trend percentage contribution for said day

P_GDD1=growing degree day derived Pollen Level for said day

W₁=Weather Contribution said day.