Enhancing delinquent debt collection using statistical models of debt historical information and account events

• US 7,191,150 B1
• Filed: 06/30/2000
• Issued: 03/13/2007
• Est. Priority Date: 02/01/2000
• Status: Expired due to Term

• Current Assignee: Fair Isaac Corporation
• Original Assignee: Fair Isaac Corporation
• Inventors: Drossu, Radu, Martin, Ron, Shao, Min, Cameron, Gordon, Zoldi, Scott, Zhang, Jenny (Guofeng), Shoham, Daniel
• Primary Examiner(s): Sough; Hyung Sub
• Assistant Examiner(s): Subramanian; Narayanswamy
• Application Number:
  US09/607,747
• Time in Patent Office: 2,447 Days
• Field of Search: 705 35- 40
• US Class Current: 705/38
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06312 Adjustment or analysis of established resource schedule, e.g. resource or task levelling, or dynamic rescheduling
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/10 Office automation; Time management
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 20/102 Bill distribution or payments
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/00 Finance; Insurance; Tax strategies; Processing of corporate or income taxes
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/03 Credit; Loans; Processing thereof
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/06 Asset management; Financial planning or analysis
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/08 Insurance

Abstract

A predictive model, for example, a neural network, evaluates individual debt holder accounts and predicts the amount that will be collected on each account based on learned relationships among known variables. The predictive model is generated using historical data of delinquent debt accounts, the collection methods used to collect the debts in the accounts, and the success of the collection methods. In one embodiment, the predictive model is generated using profiles of delinquent debt accounts summarizing patterns of events in the accounts, and the success of the collection effort in each account. In another embodiment, the predictive model includes a mathematical representation of the collector'"'"'s notes created during the collection period for each account.

Claims

1. A computer implemented method of predicting the likelihood of collecting on a delinquent debt on an account, the method comprising the computer implemented steps of:

statistically generating a predictive model of debt collection likelihood using historical data of delinquent debt accounts, specific collection methods used in each debt account, and the success of the collection methods used in each said debt account;

storing said predictive model;

generating a collector'"'"'s notes model using said historical data of delinquent debt accounts;

storing said statistically generated collectors'"'"' notes model, said statistically generated collectors'"'"' notes model representing different types of collectors'"'"' notes'"'"' subject matter as context vectors;

wherein said different types of collectors'"'"' notes'"'"' subject matter comprises information to determine prior actions taken on said account;

receiving data of a currently delinquent debt account;

transforming collectors'"'"' notes of said currently delinquent debt account into a document context vector and performing any of;

comparing said document context vector against context vectors of said collectors'"'"' notes model, determining a subject matter similarities result based on the comparison, and using said result as input into said predictive model; and

using components of said document context vector expressed in context vector eigenbasis as input into said predictive model;

selecting a collection method; and

generating a signal indicative of the likelihood of collecting on the currently delinquent debt by applying the data of the currently delinquent debt account and the selected collection method to the predictive model;

prioritizing collection resource expenditures by using said signal indicative of the likelihood of collecting on the currently delinquent debt.

2. The method of claim 1, wherein the delinquent debt was incurred on a credit card.

3. The method of claim 1, wherein the delinquent debt was incurred on a medical service.

4. The method of claim 1, wherein the delinquent debt was incurred on a utility bill.

5. The method of claim 1, wherein the delinquent debt was incurred on an unpaid check.

6. The method of claim 1, wherein the delinquent debt was incurred on mail-ordered goods.

7. The method of claim 1, wherein the delinquent debt was incurred on an electronic transaction via the Internet.

8. The method of claim 1, wherein the delinquent debt has been charged-off.

9. The method of claim 1, wherein the collection methods include a set of different letters that can be sent to delinquent debtors.

10. The method of claim 1, wherein the collection methods include different times at which a letter can be sent to delinquent debtors.

11. The method of claim 1, wherein the collection methods include different phone call approaches.

12. The method of claim 1, wherein the collection methods include different debt lifecycle stages when phone calls may be made.

13. The method of claim 1, wherein the collection methods include different debt lifecycle stages at which a letter can be sent to delinquent debtors.

14. The method of claim 1, wherein the collection methods include different days of the week during which phone calls may be made.

15. The method of claim 1, wherein the collection methods include different monthly dates during which phone calls may be made.

16. The method of claim 1, wherein the collection methods include different hours of the day during which phone calls may be made.

17. The method of claim 1, wherein the collection methods include different collections specialists who may be assigned to work the account.

18. The method of claim 1, wherein the collection methods include electronic communications that may be made with the debtor.

19. The method of claim 1, wherein the collection methods include offering debt counseling.

20. The method of claim 1, wherein the collection methods include debt rescheduling.

21. The method of claim 1, wherein the collection methods include offering additional credit.

22. The method of claim 1, wherein the collection methods include changing delinquency financial penalties for an account.

23. The method of claim 1, wherein the collection methods include offering debt forgiveness.

24. The method of claim 1, wherein the collection methods include a search for a missing debtor.

25. The method of claim 1, wherein the collection methods include legal actions.

26. The method of claim 1, wherein the collection methods include the employment of a collection agency.

27. The method of claim 1, wherein the collection methods include the sale of a debt.

28. The method of claim 1, wherein the historical data includes information regarding an account before the account became delinquent.

29. The method of claim 1, wherein the historical data includes account purchase information.

30. The method of claim 1, wherein the historical data includes information regarding the Merchant Category Code of purchases on the account.

31. The method of claim 1, wherein the historical data includes information regarding the amount of account purchases.

32. The method of claim 1, wherein the historical data includes information regarding account cash transactions.

33. The method of claim 1, wherein the historical data includes information regarding account payments made.

34. The method of claim 1, wherein the historical data includes events related to previous collection activities.

35. The method of claim 1, wherein the historical data includes collectors'"'"' notes related to previous collection activities.

36. The method of claim 35, wherein the collectors'"'"' notes use preformatted codes.

37. The method of claim 35, wherein the collectors'"'"' notes use a natural language format.

38. The method of claim 35, further comprising:

transforming the collectors'"'"' notes into a mathematical representation that encodes contextual similarity of terms contained in the collector'"'"'s notes.

39. The method of claim 38, further comprising creating the mathematical representation using a vector model.

40. The method of claim 38, further comprising creating the mathematical representation by determining co-occurrence statistics of terms contained in the collector'"'"'s notes.

41. The method of claim 38, wherein the mathematical representation is created using context vector methodology.

42. The method of claim 1, further comprising:

segmenting a portfolio of accounts into a plurality of segments; and

providing a different predictive model for each segment.

43. The method of claim 42, wherein each segment is based on a time period for which an account has been delinquent.

44. The method of claim 42, wherein each segment is based on credit-worthiness of the holder of a delinquent debt account.

45. The method of claim 42, wherein each segment is based on a type of debt of an account.

46. The method of claim 42, wherein each segment is based on a history of collection activities for an account.

47. The method of claim 42, wherein each segment is based on a statistical clustering of accounts having similar characteristics.

48. The method of claim 42, wherein each segment is based on an amount owed on an account.

49. The method of claim 42, wherein each segment is based on the collectors'"'"' notes for an account.

50. The method of claim 42, wherein each segment is based on a determination of whether a debt on an account has been charged-off.

51. The method of claim 42, wherein each segment is based on a number of collection agencies that have attempted to collect on the debt account.