Method and system for planning supply of commodities

• US 7,194,420 B2
• Filed: 11/13/2001
• Issued: 03/20/2007
• Est. Priority Date: 11/13/2000
• Status: Expired due to Fees

• Current Assignee: Ricoh Company Limited
• Original Assignee: Ricoh Company Limited
• Inventors: Ikezawa, Toyoji, Koide, Masao
• Primary Examiner(s): Tarae; Michelle
• Assistant Examiner(s): Sterrett; Jonathan G
• Application Number:
  US09/986,908
• Publication Number:
  US 20020059096A1
• Time in Patent Office: 1,953 Days
• Field of Search: 705/10
• US Class Current: 705/7.25
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06315 Needs-based resource requirements planning or analysis
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/087 Inventory or stock management, e.g. order filling, procurement or balancing against orders
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0202 Market predictions or forecasting for commercial activities

Abstract

An SFA server stores transaction information representing the contents of each of a plurality of business transactions for providing customers with commodities and including the expected sales of the commodities in each of the transactions in a customer database. The SFA server also stores progress information representing that each of the plurality of the transactions has reached one of a plurality of stages each indicating a progress level of the transaction, in association with the transaction information. An SCM server estimates a future demand for the commodities, based on the transaction information and the progress information associated with the transaction information.

Claims

1. A commodity-supply planning method comprising:

storing transaction information representing contents of each of a plurality of transactions in a storage, in association with each of the plurality of transactions each for providing commodities to customers, and storing progress information representing whether each of the plurality of transactions is in a state of attaining each of a plurality of stages each indicating a progress level of the transaction based on progress of sales activities performed for accomplishing the transaction, in association with the transaction information, in said storage;

summing a number of transactions dealing with a same commodity and having reached a same stage, twice at different points in time; and

calculating an increase or decrease rate of the number of transactions, which have reached their respective stages, from results of the twice summing performed twice continuously;

calculating an accomplishment probability by each stage of the plurality of the stages, the accomplishment probability being a probability that each of the transactions in a state of attaining the stage as the highest attained stage will be successfully accomplished after a predetermined period of time, based on statistical data representing a period of time required for successfully accomplishing each of the transactions in a state of attaining the stage as the highest attained stage;

multiplying, by each stage, a sum of the expected sales of the commodities by the accomplishment probability;

setting a sum of the products calculated in the multiplying step for the plurality of the stages;

estimating a future demand for the commodities based on the previous steps; and

storing the estimated future demand on a computer readable storage medium.

2. The commodity-supply planning method according to claim 1, wherein

the stored transaction information includes information representing expected sales of the commodities in each of the plurality of transactions.

3. The commodity-supply planning method according to claim 1, further including:

calculating a change rate in the expected sales of the commodities based on the expected sales of the commodities, at each of the plurality of the stages, and estimating the future demand for the commodities, based on the actual demand and the calculated change rates at the plurality of the stages.

4. The commodity-supply planning method according to claim 1, further including:

making a plan for supplying the commodities, based on the expected demand and stock of the commodities.

5. A commodity-supply planning method comprising:

reading transaction information stored in a first storage and progress information stored in the storage associated with the transaction information;

summing a number of transactions dealing with a same commodity and having reached a same stage, the stage corresponding to the progress information, twice at different points in time, and storing the number of transactions summed in a second storage;

reading results of the summing performed twice continuously, from the second storage; and

calculating an increase or decrease rate of the number of transactions, which have reached their respective stages, from reading the results of the summing,

wherein the transaction information represents contents of each of a plurality of transactions for supplying customers with the commodities, and wherein

the progress information represents whether each of the plurality of transactions is in a state of attaining each of a plurality of stages each indicating a progress level of the transaction, based on progress of sales activities performed for accomplishing the transaction;

calculating an accomplishment probability by each stage of the plurality of the stages, wherein the accomplishment probability is a probability that each of the transactions in a state of attaining the stage as the highest attained stage will be successfully accomplished after a predetermined period of time, based on statistical data representing a period of time required for successfully accomplishing each of the transactions in a state of the stage as the highest attained stage;

multiplying a sum of the expected sales of the commodities by the accomplishment probability, by each stage;

setting a sum of the products of multiplying by the accomplishment probability for the plurality of the stages;

estimating a future demand for the commodities based on the previous steps; and

storing the estimated future demand on a computer readable storage medium.

6. The commodity-supply planning method according to claim 5, wherein

the transaction information includes information representing expected sales of the commodities in the transaction specified in the transaction information.

7. The commodity-supply planning method according to claim 5, further including:

calculating a change rate in the sums of the expected sales of the commodities, based on the sums of the expected sales of the commodities at the plurality of points in time, by each stage, and estimating a future demand for the commodities based on an actual demand for the commodities and the calculated change rates.

8. The commodity-supply planning method according to claim 5, further including:

classifying, by each stage, the plurality of transactions in a state of attaining the stage as the highest attained stage, based on a scale of the sales of the commodities in each of the transactions; and

calculating the accomplishment probability by each group of transactions.

9. The commodity-supply planning method according to claim 5, further including:

multiplying, by each stage, the product calculated in the multiplying step by a weighting coefficient in accordance with a kind of the commodities; and

setting a sum of the resultant products of multiplying by the weighting coefficient for the plurality of the stages, as an expected demand for the commodities within the predetermined period of time.

10. The commodity-supply planning method according to claim 5, further including:

making a plan for supplying the commodities, based on the estimated demand and stock of the commodities.

11. A commodity-supply planning system comprising:

a first server including

a first processor which manages information regarding supplying of commodities,

a first storage which stores information regarding the supplying of the commodities, and

a timer which provides said first processor with date/time information; and

a second server including

a second processor which manages information regarding sales activities of the commodities, and

a second storage which stores information regarding the sales activities, wherein said second processor

stores transaction information in said second storage, wherein the transaction information represents contents of each of a plurality of transactions each for providing customers with the commodities, and

stores progress information in said second storage associated with the transaction information, wherein the progress information represents whether each of the plurality of the transactions is in a state of attaining each of a plurality of stages, each stage indicating a progress level of each of the plurality of transactions, based on progress of the sales activities performed for accomplishing each of the transactions, and wherein said first processor

reads the transaction information and the progress information which are stored in said second storage unit, in association with each other,

sums a number of transactions dealing with a same commodity and having reached a same stage, twice at different points in time, according to the date/time information sent from said timer, and stores the number of transactions summed in said first storage;

reads results of the summing performed twice continuously, from said first storage; and

calculates an increase or decrease rate of the number of transactions, which have reached their respective stages, from the read results of the summing;

calculates an accomplishment probability by each stage of the plurality of the stages, wherein the accomplishment probability is a probability that each of the transactions in a state of attaining the stage as the highest attained stage will be successfully accomplished after a predetermined period of time, based on statistical data representing a period of time required for accomplishing each of the transactions in a state of attaining the stage as the highest attained stage;

multiplies a sum of the expected sales of the commodities by the accomplishment probability, by each stage;

sets a sum of the products of multiplying by the accomplishment probability for the plurality of the stages;

estimates a future demand for the commodities based on the previous steps; and

stores the estimated future demand on a computer readable storage medium.

12. The commodity-supply planning system according to claim 11, wherein

the transaction information including expected sales of the commodities in each of the plurality of transactions, in said second storage.

13. The commodity-supply planning system according to claim 11, wherein

said first processor calculates a change rate in the sums of the expected sales of the commodities based on the sums of the expected sales of the commodities, by each stage, and estimates a future demand for the commodities, based on the actual demand and the calculated change rates.

14. The commodity-supply planning system according to claim 11, wherein said first server and said second server are included in the same computer.

15. A commodity-supply planning system comprising:

a processor which manages information regarding supplying of commodities;

a first storage which stores information regarding the supplying of the commodities; and

a timer which provides said processor with date/time information,

wherein said processor

reads out transaction information and progress information which are stored in a second storage in association with each other,

sums a number of transactions dealing with a same commodity and having reached a same stage, twice at different points in time, according to the date/time information sent from said timer, and stores the number of transactions summed in said first storage;

reads results of the summing performed twice continuously, from said first storage; and

calculates an increase or decrease rate of the number of transactions, which have reached their respective stages, from the read results of the summing,

wherein the transaction information represents contents of each of the plurality of transactions for providing customers with the commodities, and

wherein the progress information represents whether each of the transactions has reached each of a plurality of stages indicating a progress degree of the transaction, in accordance with progress of sales activities performed for successfully accomplishing each transaction specified in the transaction information;

calculates an accomplishment probability by each of the plurality of the stages, wherein the accomplishment probability is a probability that each of the transactions in a state of attaining the stage as the highest attained stage will be successfully accomplished after a predetermined period of time, based on statistical data representing a period of time required for successfully accomplishing each of the transactions in a state of attaining the stage as highest attained stage;

multiplies a sum of the expected sales of the commodities by the accomplishment probability, by each stage;

sets a sum of the products of multiplying by the accomplishment probability for the plurality of the stages a value;

estimates a future demand for the commodities based on the previous steps; and

stores the estimated future demand on a computer readable storage medium.

16. The commodity-supply planning system according to claim 15, wherein

the transaction information includes expected sales of the commodities in each of the transactions specified in the transaction information.

17. The commodity-supply planning system according to claim 15, wherein said processor

calculates a change rate in the sums of the expected sales of the commodities, based on the sums of the expected sales of the commodities at the plurality of points in time, by each stage, and estimates a future demand for the commodities based on an actual demand for the commodities and the calculated change rates for the plurality of the stages.

18. The commodity-supply planning system according to claim 15, wherein said processor:

classifies, by each stage, the plurality of transactions in a state of attaining the stage as the highest attained stage, based on a scale of the sales of the commodities in each of the transactions; and

calculates the accomplishment probability by each group of transactions.

19. The commodity-supply planning system according to claim 15, wherein said processor:

multiplies, by each stage, the resultant product of multiplying by a weighting coefficient in accordance with a kind of the commodities; and

sets a sum of the resultant products of multiplying by the weighting coefficient for the plurality of the stages, as an expected demand for the commodities within the predetermined period of time.

20. The commodity-supply planning system according to claim 15, wherein said processor

makes a plan for supplying the commodities, based on the estimated demand and stock of the commodities.

21. A computer-readable recording medium storing a program for controlling a computer to execute a commodity-supply planning method comprising:

storing transaction information representing contents of each of a plurality of transactions for providing customers with commodities and including sales of the commodities in each of the plurality of transactions, in a storage, and storing progress information representing whether each of the plurality of transactions is in a state of attaining each of a plurality of stages, in the storage in association with the transaction information, each stage indicating a progress level of the transaction based on progress of sales activities performed for accomplishing the transaction;

summing a number of transactions dealing with a same commodity and having reached a same stage, twice at different points in time; and

calculating an increase or decrease rate of the number of transactions, which have reaching their respective stages, from results of the summing performed twice continuously;

calculating an accomplishment probability by each stage of the plurality of the stages, the accomplishment probability being a probability that each of the transactions in a state of attaining the stage as the highest attained stage will be successfully accomplished after a predetermined period of time, based on statistical data representing a period of time required for successfully accomplishing each of the transactions in a state of attaining the stage as the highest attained stage;

multiplying, by each stage, a sum of the expected sales of the commodities by the accomplishment probability;

setting a sum of the products calculated in the multiplying step for the plurality of the stages;

estimating a future demand for the commodities based on the previous steps; and

storing the estimated future demand on a computer readable storage medium.

22. The recording medium according to claim 21, wherein

the transaction information includes information representing expected sales of the commodities in each of the transactions.