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Weather and climate variable prediction for management of weather and climate risk

  • US 7,249,007 B1
  • Filed: 01/15/2003
  • Issued: 07/24/2007
  • Est. Priority Date: 01/15/2002
  • Status: Expired due to Fees
First Claim
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1. A computer implemented method for predicting future time series and conditional probability distributions based upon observed statistical behavior of atmospheric, meteorological, or other geophysical time series comprising:

  • a) assembling an ensemble of observed time series;

    b) removing any evident cycles;

    c) calculating Fourier expansion coefficients according to Loè

    ve'"'"'s theorem;

    d) determining a statistical distribution of said expansion coefficients;

    e) generating a larger set of expansion coefficients based on the statistical distribution determined in step (d);

    f) using the larger set of expansion coefficients to create an ensemble of simulated atmospheric, meteorological, or other geophysical time series for a period P comprising past and future components;

    g) selecting from the ensemble of simulated time series a subset for which at least one statistical moment accumulated over a past component of P is confined to a specific numerical range, thereby providing for a future component of P a set of predicted atmospheric, meteorological, or other geophysical times series and probability distributions conditioned on events in the past component of P; and

    h) storing the set of predicted atmospheric, meteorological, or other geophysical times series and probability distributions in files in the computer.

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