Method and system for predicting remaining life for motors featuring on-line insulation condition monitor

• US 7,254,514 B2
• Filed: 05/12/2005
• Issued: 08/07/2007
• Est. Priority Date: 05/12/2005
• Status: Expired due to Fees

• Current Assignee: General Electric Company
• Original Assignee: General Electric Company
• Inventors: House, Michael Brynn, Flickinger, Greg, Chmiel, Gary James
• Primary Examiner(s): WACHSMAN, HAL D
• Application Number:
  US10/908,455
• Publication Number:
  US 20060259271A1
• Time in Patent Office: 817 Days
• Field of Search: 702/181, 702/183, 702 34- 36, 702/56, 702/58, 702/59, 702/64, 702/65, 702/113, 702/122, 702/179, 702/182, 702/185, 702/187, 702/188
• US Class Current: 702/181
• CPC Class Codes: G01R 31/343 in operation
• CPC Class Codes: G05B 23/0248 Causal models, e.g. fault tree; digraphs; qualitative physics
• CPC Class Codes: G05B 23/0283 Predictive maintenance, e.g. involving the monitoring of a system and, based on the monitoring results, taking decisions on the maintenance schedule of the monitored system; Estimating remaining useful life [RUL] preventive maintenance, i.e. planning maintenance according to the available resources without monitoring the system G06Q10/06

Abstract

A method and a system for determining a remaining time before failure of a motor system are provided. The method and the system determine the remaining time before failure based on historical motor data and operational parameter data associated with the motor system.

Claims

1. A method for determining a remaining time before failure of a monitor system, the method comprising:

acquiring historical motor data associated with the motor system, in a computer;

obtaining operational parameter data from a tan delta sensor operably coupled to the motor system;

uploading the operational parameter data to the computer;

performing failure analysis based on a composite of reliability probability distributions corresponding to predetermined sub-populations of historical motor system failure causes indicated in the historical motor data;

developing a causal network for modeling reliability of one or more motor system components, and assessing motor system component condition based on the causal network and the operational parameter data; and

performing an integrated casual network and reliability analysis of the motor system, wherein results from the performing failure analysis are intergrated with results from the assessing motor system component condition based on the causal network to compute a quantitive value for the time remaining before failure of the motor system with an ascertained statistical confidence; and

displaying the quantitative value for the time remaining before failure of the motor system on a display device.

2. The method of claim 1, wherein the developing the causal network includes developing a Bayesian Belief Network.

3. The method of claim 1, wherein the performing failure analysis comprise modeling a failure rate of a system component using a Weibull probability distribution function.

4. The method of claim 1, wherein the obtaining operational parameter data comprises obtaining leakage current data.

5. The method of claim 4, wherein the obtaining leakage current data comprises at least one of:

obtaining leakage current phase data; and

obtaining leakage current amplitude data.

6. The method of claim 4, wherein the obtaining leakage current data further comprises obtaining leakage current data using the tan delta sensor.

7. The method of claim 4, further comprising predicting insulation degradation responsive to the leakage current data.

8. The method of claim 1, wherein displaying the remaining time before failure of the motor system comprises displaying the remaining time befor failure of the motor system as a moving bar-graph on a graphical user interface of the display device.

9. The method of claim 1, further comprising transmitting the operational parameter data from the tan delta sensor to the computer via a wireless network.

10. The method of claim 1, wherein the performing failure analysis further comprises predicting insulation degradation of a motor system component responsive to leakage current data measured at the motor system.

11. A system for determining a remaining time before failure of a motor system, the system comprising:

a tan delta sensor disposed in electrical communication with the motor system to access data of the motor system;

a computer comprising;

a storage medium, readable by a processing circuit, storing instructions for execution by the processing circuit for;

acquiring historical motor data associated with the motor system;

obtaining operational parameter data from the tan delta sensor;

performing failure analysis based on a composite of reliability probability distributions corresponding to predetermined sub-populations of historical motor system failure causes indicated in the historical motor data;

developing a causal network for modeling reliability of one or more motor system components and assessing motor system component condition based on the causal network;

performing an integrated causal network and reliability analysis of the motor system, wherein results from the performing failure analysis are integrated with resluts from the assessing motor system component condition based on the casual network to compute a quantitative value for the time remaining before failure of the motor system with an ascertained statistical confidence; and

displaying the quantitative value for the time remaining before failure of the motor system on a display device; and

a transmission network in communication with the computer and the tan delta sensor configured to communicate the data from the tan delta sensor to the computer.

12. The system of claim 11, wherein the transmission network comprises:

a transmitter receptive of the data and transmitting the data;

a receiver in communication with the transmitter to receive the data;

an access point in communication with the receiver and the computer to relay the data to the computer.

13. The system of claim 12, wherein the receiver and transmitter are wireless devices.

14. The system of claim 11, wherein the tan delta sensor obtains leakage current data of the motor system, and the leakage current data includes at least one of:

leakage current phase data; and

leakage current amplitude data.

15. A method for determining remaining time before failure of a motor system, comprising:

acquiring historical motor data associated with the motor system;

obtaning operational parameter data from a tan delta sensor operably coupled to the motor system;

performing a failure analysis associated with with the motor system utilizing the historical motor data;

assessing a motor system component condition utilizing a causal network associated with the motor system and the operational parameter data;

calculating a quantitative value for a time remaining before failure of the motor system based on results from the failure analysis and the motor system component condition; and

displaying a representation of the quantitative value for the time remaining before failure of the motor system on a display device.

16. The method of clain 15, wherein the representation of the quantitative value is a bar graph.