Method and apparatus for providing a polynomial based virtual age estimation for remaining lifetime prediction of a system
First Claim
1. A method for providing a virtual age estimation for predicting the remaining lifetime of a device of a given type, comprising the steps of:
- monitoring a predetermined number of significant parameters of respective ones of a training set of devices of said given type, said parameters contributing respective wear increments;
determining coefficients of a multivariate Hermite polynomial for modeling said wear increments determined from said training set operated to failure and whereof the respective virtual ages are normalized substantially to a desired norm value;
deriving from said multivariate Hermite polynomial a formula for virtual age of a device of said given type; and
applying said formula to said significant parameters from a further device of the said given type for deriving wear increments for said further device.
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Abstract
A method for providing a virtual age estimation for predicting the remaining lifetime of a device of a given type, comprises the steps of monitoring a predetermined number of significant parameters of respective ones of a training set of devices of the given type, the parameters contributing respective wear increments, determining coefficients of a multivariate Hermite polynomial for modeling the wear increments determined from the training set operated to failure and whereof the respective virtual ages are normalized substantially to a desired norm value, deriving from the multivariate Hermite polynomial a formula for virtual age of a device of the given type, and applying the formula to the significant parameters from a further device of the given type for deriving wear increments for the further device.
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Citations
15 Claims
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1. A method for providing a virtual age estimation for predicting the remaining lifetime of a device of a given type, comprising the steps of:
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monitoring a predetermined number of significant parameters of respective ones of a training set of devices of said given type, said parameters contributing respective wear increments; determining coefficients of a multivariate Hermite polynomial for modeling said wear increments determined from said training set operated to failure and whereof the respective virtual ages are normalized substantially to a desired norm value; deriving from said multivariate Hermite polynomial a formula for virtual age of a device of said given type; and applying said formula to said significant parameters from a further device of the said given type for deriving wear increments for said further device. - View Dependent Claims (2, 3)
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4. A method for providing a virtual age estimation for devices of a given type by predicting the remaining lifetime of a further device of said given type by computing wear increments, comprising the steps of:
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collecting data on parameters contributing wear increments in a training set of sample devices until failure, said sample devices being similar to said given device; modeling a wear increment by a multivariate Hermite polynomial of degree k; computing the sum of increments for individual sample devices in said training set to obtain a virtual age therefore, said virtual age being normalized substantially to a convenient normalized virtual age; and determining coefficients of said multivariate Hermite polynomial in a supervised training phase of said sample devices in said training set for said normalized virtual age; and deriving incremental wear data for a further device, similar to said sample devices, by utilizing device data for said further device in conjunction with said coefficients of said multivariate Hermite polynomial determined in the preceding step. - View Dependent Claims (5, 6, 7, 8, 9)
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10. A method for providing a virtual age estimation for devices by predicting the remaining lifetime of a given device by computing wear increments, comprising the steps of:
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modeling wear increments by a Hermite polynomial based on selected wear parameters which contribute wear increments for said devices; adjusting coefficients of said polynomial in accordance with data derived in a training set of such devices for deriving an equation for increments of virtual age for each device in said training set, said virtual ages being normalized substantially to a desired standard value; and applying said equation to said selected wear parameters of a further device similar to devices in said training set for computing wear increments for said further device. - View Dependent Claims (11, 12, 13, 14, 15)
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Specification