Managing and predicting risk for computer devices using exposure management techniques

• US 7,302,617 B2
• Filed: 10/22/2003
• Issued: 11/27/2007
• Est. Priority Date: 05/12/2003
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: Oracle America, Inc. (Oracle Corporation)
• Original Assignee: Sun Microsystems Incorporated (Oracle Corporation)
• Inventors: Wookey, Michael J.
• Primary Examiner(s): Baderman; Scott
• Assistant Examiner(s): Bonura; Timothy M.
• Application Number:
  US10/690,952
• Publication Number:
  US 20040230548A1
• Time in Patent Office: 1,497 Days
• Field of Search: 714/47, 714/38
• US Class Current: 714/47.2
• CPC Class Codes: G06F 11/008 Reliability or availability analysis

Abstract

Methods, systems, and articles of manufacture consistent with the present invention provide for managing and predicting risk for computer-based systems. Information about a computer-based system is asynchronously received. A risk level at which the computer-based system operates is calculated based on the received information.

Claims

1. A method in a data processing system having a program, the method comprising the steps performed by the program of:

asynchronously receiving information about a computer-based system by subscribing to the information;

calculating a risk level at which the computer-based system operates based on the received information;

calculating an exposure level to failure of the computer-based system based on the received information; and

calculating a confidence level of the exposure level,

wherein the risk level is calculated based on the exposure level and confidence level, and

wherein the risk level is calculated using the formula;

risk level=exposure level*confidence level/a mitigating factor,

where the mitigating factor is a value associated with the computer-based system.

2. The method according to claim 1, further comprising the step of outputting the calculated risk level.

3. The method according to claim 1, wherein the confidence level is increased each time the exposure level for the computer-based system is calculated and exceeds a predetermined value.

4. The method according to claim 1, wherein a rule engine is used to calculate the exposure level, the rule engine asynchronously receiving the information about the computer-based system as an input, and outputting the exposure level as an output.

5. The method according to claim 4, wherein the rule engine comprises a plurality of rule engines each operating asynchronously;

and wherein the risk level is calculated based on the exposure levels output from at least one of the rule engines.

6. The method according to claim 1, wherein the computer-based system is at least one of a data processing system, a component of a data processing system, and a computer program.

7. The method according to claim 1, wherein the risk level is published to a network connected to the data processing system.

8. The method according to claim 1, wherein the received information comprises at least one of fault information, hardware configuration information, and software configuration information about the computer-based system.

9. The method according to claim 1, further comprising the step of:

determining a difficulty value for reducing the exposure level.

10. The method according to claim 9, further comprising the step of:

outputting the difficulty value.

11. The method according to claim 9, further comprising the step of:

determining a cost associated with reducing the exposure level.

12. The method according to claim 11, further comprising the step of:

outputting the cost.

13. The method according to claim 1, further comprising the steps of:

calculating at least a second risk level at which the computer-based system operates based on the received information; and

trending the risk level and the at least second risk level by calculating a moving average of the risk levels for the computer-based system.

14. A computer-readable storage medium containing instructions that cause a data processing system having a program to perform a method comprising the steps performed by the program of:

asynchronously receiving information about a computer-based system by subscribing to the information;

calculating a risk level at which the computer-based system operates based on the received information;

calculating an exposure level to failure of the computer-based system based on the received information; and

calculating a confidence level of the exposure level,

wherein the risk level is calculated based on the exposure level and confidence level, and

wherein the risk level is calculated using the formula;

risk level=exposure level*confidence level/a mitigating factor,

where the mitigating factor is a value associated with the computer-based system.

15. The computer-readable storage medium according to claim 14, further comprising the step of outputting the calculated risk level.

16. The computer-readable storage medium according to claim 14, wherein the confidence level is increased each time the exposure level for the computer-based system is calculated and exceeds a predetermined value.

17. The computer-readable storage medium according to claim 14, wherein a rule engine is used to calculate the exposure level, the rule engine asynchronously receiving the information about the computer-based system as an input, and outputting the exposure level as an output.

18. The computer-readable storage medium according to claim 17, wherein the rule engine comprises a plurality of rule engines each operating asynchronously;

and

wherein the risk level is calculated based on the exposure levels output from at least one of the rule engines.

19. The computer-readable storage medium according to claim 14, wherein the computer-based system is at least one of a data processing system, a component of a data processing system, and a computer program.

20. The computer-readable storage medium according to claim 14, wherein the risk level is published to a network connected to the data processing system.

21. The computer-readable storage medium according to claim 14, wherein the received information comprises at least one of fault information, hardware configuration information, and software configuration information about the computer-based system.

22. The computer-readable storage medium according to claim 14, further comprising the step of:

determining a difficulty value for reducing the exposure level.

23. The computer-readable storage medium according to claim 22, further comprising the step of:

outputting the difficulty value.

24. The computer-readable storage medium according to claim 22, further comprising the step of:

determining a cost associated with reducing the exposure level.

25. The computer-readable storage medium according to claim 24, further comprising the step of:

outputting the cost.

26. The computer-readable storage medium according to claim 14, further comprising the steps of:

calculating at least a second risk level at which the computer-based system operates based on the received information; and

trending the risk level and the at least second risk level by calculating a moving average of the risk levels for the computer-based system.

27. A data processing system comprising:

a memory comprising a program that asynchronously receives information about a computer-based system by subscribing to the information, calculates a risk level at which the computer-based system operates based on the received information, calculates an exposure level to failure of the computer-based system based on the received information, and calculates a confidence level of the exposure level, wherein the risk level is calculated based on the exposure level and confidence level, and wherein the risk level is calculated using the formula;

risk level=exposure level*confidence level/a mitigating factor,

where the mitigating factor is a value associated with the computer-based system; and

a processing unit that runs the program.

28. The data processing system according to claim 27, wherein the program further outputs the calculated risk level.

29. The data processing system according to claim 27, wherein the confidence level is increased each time the exposure level for the computer-based system is calculated and exceeds a predetermined value.

30. The data processing system according to claim 27, wherein a rule engine is used to calculate the exposure level, the rule engine asynchronously receiving the information about the computer-based system as an input, and outputting the exposure level as an output.

31. The data processing system according to claim 30, wherein the rule engine comprises a plurality of rule engines each operating asynchronously;

and wherein the risk level is calculated based on the exposure levels output from at least one of the rule engines.

32. The data processing system according to claim 27, wherein the computer-based system is at least one of a data processing system, a component of a data processing system, and a computer program.

33. The data processing system according to claim 27, wherein the risk level is published to a network connected to the data processing system.

34. The data processing system according to claim 27, wherein the received information comprises at least one of fault information, hardware configuration information, and software configuration information about the computer-based system.

35. The data processing system according to claim 27, wherein the program further determines a difficulty value for reducing the exposure level.

36. The method according to claim 35, wherein the program further outputs the difficulty value.

37. The data processing system according to claim 35, wherein the program further determines a cost associated with reducing the exposure level.

38. The data processing system according to claim 37, wherein the program further outputs the cost.

39. The data processing system according to claim 27, wherein the program further calculates at least a second risk level at which the computer-based system operates based on the received information, and trends the risk level and the at least second risk level by calculating a moving average of the risk levels for the computer-based system.

40. A data processing system comprising:

means for asynchronously receiving information about a computer-based system by subscribing to the information;

means for calculating a risk level at which the computer-based system operates based on the received information;

means for calculating an exposure level to failure of the computer-based system based on the received information; and

means for calculating a confidence level of the exposure level,

wherein the risk level is calculated based on the exposure level and confidence level, and

wherein the risk level is calculated using the formula;

risk level=exposure level*confidence level/a mitigating factor,

where the mitigating factor is a value associated with the computer-based system.