System and method for predicting external events from electronic posting activity

• US 7,363,243 B2
• Filed: 09/28/2005
• Issued: 04/22/2008
• Est. Priority Date: 10/11/2000
• Status: Expired due to Term

• Current Assignee: Buzzmetrics, Ltd. (Nielsen Holdings plc)
• Original Assignee: Buzzmetrics, Ltd. (Nielsen Holdings plc)
• Inventors: Holtzman, David, Arnett, Nicholas D., Pool, David
• Primary Examiner(s): MEINECKE DIAZ, SUSANNA M
• Application Number:
  US11/239,696
• Publication Number:
  US 20060085248A1
• Time in Patent Office: 937 Days
• Field of Search: 705/10
• US Class Current: 705/7.31
• CPC Class Codes: G06F 21/31 User authentication
• CPC Class Codes: G06F 21/6254 by anonymising data, e.g. decorrelating personal data from the owner's identification
• CPC Class Codes: G06F 2221/2117 User registration
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/10 Office automation; Time management
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/02 Marketing; Price estimation or determination; Fundraising
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0201 Market modelling; Market analysis; Collecting market data
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0202 Market predictions or forecasting for commercial activities
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0204 Market segmentation
• CPC Class Codes: H04L 51/216 Handling conversation history, e.g. grouping of messages in sessions or threads
• CPC Class Codes: H04L 63/0407 wherein the identity of one or more communicating identities is hidden cryptographic mechanisms or cryptographic arrangements for anonymous credentials or for identity based cryptographic systems H04L9/00
• CPC Class Codes: H04L 65/1101 Session protocols
• CPC Class Codes: H04L 9/40 Network security protocols

Abstract

A system and method for collecting and analyzing electronic discussion messages to categorize the message communications and the identify trends and patterns in pre-determined markets. Electronic messages are collected and analyzed according to characteristics and data inherent in the messages. Objective data is collected by the system for use in analyzing the electronic discussion data against real-world events to facilitate trend analysis and event forecasting based on the volume, nature and content of messages posted to electronic discussion forums. The message posting activity of a plurality of posters can be tracked to identify opinion leaders, and patterns in the messages can be identified using at least one of the following techniques: chaos theory; complexity theory; social network theory; and neural network theory.

Claims

1. A system for processing messages collected from a plurality of electronic discussion forums, comprising:

computer implemented means for collecting messages from the plurality of electronic discussion forums;

computer implemented means for processing the messages according to a series of topics, wherein the processing includes determining the relevance of a message to at least one topic;

computer implemented means for tracking posting activity of a plurality of posters associated with the at least one topic based on the processing of the messages;

computer implemented means for collecting objective market data associated with the at least one topic from at least one objective market data source;

computer implemented means for generating a correlation between the posting activity of a plurality of posters associated with the at least one topic versus the objective market data associated with the at least one topic;

computer implemented means for measuring the mood of a community of posters posting electronic messages in the plurality of electronic discussion forums; and

computer implemented means for generating a report displaying, at least in part, information associated with the correlation;

wherein the means for generating a correlation between the posting activity of a plurality of posters associated with the at least one topic versus the objective market data associated with the at least one topic by the computer system further includes the measured mood of the community of posters into the correlation; and

whereby the information displayed in the report is used by a computer implemented means for predicting external market events to predict external market events.

2. The system of claim 1, wherein the means for tracking is adapted to identify opinion leaders based on the processing of the messages, and the comparison generating means filters the posting activity of posters associated with the at least one topic to the identified opinion leaders.

3. The system of claim 2, wherein the means for processing is adapted to perform linguistic analysis on the messages.

4. The system of claim 3, wherein the means for processing is adapted to identify patterns in the messages.

5. The system of claim 4, wherein the patterns are identified using at least one of the following techniques:

chaos theory;

complexity theory;

social network theory; and

neural network theory.

6. The system of claim 1, wherein the computer implemented means for measuring the mood of a community of posters posting electronic messages in the plurality of electronic discussion forums includes computer implemented means for measuring the rise and fall of discussion levels of messages associated with the at least one topic within the plurality of discussion forums over time.

7. The system of claim 1, wherein the means for processing the messages includes means for analyzing textual patterns in the message to determine whether the message expresses one of a positive, neutral and negative opinion associated with the at least one topic and means for assigning an opinion rating for the message based upon the analysis.

8. The system of claim 1, further comprising:

means for measuring the mood of a community of posters posting electronic messages in the plurality of electronic discussion forums, including means for measuring the number of new posters posting electronic messages related to at least one topic within the plurality of discussion forums over time;

wherein the means for generating a correlation between the posting activity of a plurality of posters associated with the at least one topic versus the objective market data associated with the at least one topic by the computer system further includes the measured mood of the community of posters into the correlation.

9. A computer implemented method for processing messages collected from a plurality of electronic discussion forums, comprising the steps of:

collecting, by a computer system, messages from the plurality of electronic discussion forums;

processing the messages, by the computer system, according to a series of topics, wherein the processing includes determining the relevance of a message to at least one topic;

tracking posting activity of a plurality of posters associated with the at least one topic, by the computer system, based on the processing of the messages;

collecting objective market data associated with the at least one topic by the computer system from at least one objective market data source;

generating a correlation between the posting activity of a plurality of posters associated with the at least one topic versus the objective market data associated with the at least one topic by the computer system;

measuring, by the computer system, the mood of a community of posters posting electronic messages in the plurality of electronic discussion forums; and

generating a report displaying, at least in part, information associated with the correlation by the computer system;

wherein the step of generating a correlation between the posting activity of a plurality of posters associated with the at least one topic versus the objective market data associated with the at least one topic by the computer system further includes the measured mood of the community of posters into the correlation; and

whereby the information displayed in the report is used by a computer implemented means for predicting external market events to predict external market events.

10. The method of claim 9, wherein the step of tracking comprises identifying opinion leaders based on the processing of the messages, and the step of generating a comparison filters the posting activity of posters associated with the at least one topic to the identified opinion leaders.

11. The method of claim 10, wherein the step of processing comprises performing linguistic analysis on the messages.

12. The method of claim 11, wherein the step of processing comprises identifying patterns in the messages.

13. The method of claim 12, wherein the patterns are identified using at least one of the following techniques:

chaos theory;

complexity theory;

social network theory; and

neural network theory.

14. The method of claim 9, wherein the step of processing the messages includes the steps of analyzing textual patterns in the message to determine whether the message expresses one of a positive, neutral and negative opinion associated with the at least one topic and assigns an opinion rating for the message based upon the analysis.

15. The method of claim 9, wherein the step of measuring, by the computer system, the mood of a community of posters posting electronic messages in the plurality of electronic discussion forums includes the step of measuring the rise and fall of discussion levels of messages associated with the at least one topic within the plurality of discussion forums over time.