Valuing and optimizing scheduling of generation assets for a group of facilities
First Claim
1. A method for facilitating joint scheduling of operation of each of a plurality of facilities for at least a first time interval of a period of time implemented at least in part on a computing system, the method comprising:
- determining a set of preliminary anticipated optimal schedules for each of the plurality of facilities, comprising;
generating a decision tree based model for each of the plurality of facilities, each of the decision tree based models accounting for a combined effect, on the optimization of the scheduling of the operation of the respective facility, of;
at least one specified control price path including at least one price, over the period of time, of at least one commodity associated with the operation of each of the plurality of facilities, the at least one price of the at least one commodity being affected by the operation of each of the facilities over the period of time;
at least one specified level of uncertainty with regard to the at least one control price path; and
,at least one specified constraint associated with at least a first state of at least one state of at least one operating parameter associated with the operation of each of the plurality of facilities; and
,applying a dynamic optimization algorithm to the decision tree based models to determine a set of preliminary anticipated optimal schedules, the set of preliminary anticipated optimal schedules including a schedule for each of the plurality of facilities over the period of time;
generating a set of liquidity adjusted price paths for the at least on commodity over the period of time, the set of liquidity adjusted price paths being generated based at least on the at least one specified control price path, the set of preliminary anticipated optimal schedules, and a specified liquidity function;
utilizing an optimal control price path search algorithm that utilizes iterative performance of the determining step and the generating step with updating of the at least one control price paths according to the liquidity adjusted price paths, determining an optimal control price path and an anticipated optimal set of schedules, the anticipated optimal set of schedules including a schedule for each of the plurality of facilities;
determining an optimal scheduling option for each of the plurality of facilities based on anticipated optimal set of schedules; and
,storing in a memory optimal scheduling information associated with the optimal scheduling option for each of the plurality of facilities.
7 Assignments
0 Petitions
Accused Products
Abstract
The present invention provides methods and systems for determining anticipated profit from facilities such as electrical power generation facilities, for determining values for assets based on profitability of facilities, and for determining optimal operational scheduling options for facilities. Methods and systems are provided which utilize a dynamic programming algorithm and a decision tree based model in which one or more operating constraints are implicitly modeled, facilitating computational tractability. Additionally, methods and systems are provided that utilize a dynamic programming algorithm and a decision tree based model that accounts for a combined effect of price paths with specified uncertainty as well as operational constraints. Furthermore, methods and systems are provided that address profitability, valuation, and scheduling in relation to a group, or portfolio, of facilities, accounting for liquidity factors as well as group, or global, constraints.
-
Citations
26 Claims
-
1. A method for facilitating joint scheduling of operation of each of a plurality of facilities for at least a first time interval of a period of time implemented at least in part on a computing system, the method comprising:
-
determining a set of preliminary anticipated optimal schedules for each of the plurality of facilities, comprising; generating a decision tree based model for each of the plurality of facilities, each of the decision tree based models accounting for a combined effect, on the optimization of the scheduling of the operation of the respective facility, of; at least one specified control price path including at least one price, over the period of time, of at least one commodity associated with the operation of each of the plurality of facilities, the at least one price of the at least one commodity being affected by the operation of each of the facilities over the period of time; at least one specified level of uncertainty with regard to the at least one control price path; and
,at least one specified constraint associated with at least a first state of at least one state of at least one operating parameter associated with the operation of each of the plurality of facilities; and
,applying a dynamic optimization algorithm to the decision tree based models to determine a set of preliminary anticipated optimal schedules, the set of preliminary anticipated optimal schedules including a schedule for each of the plurality of facilities over the period of time; generating a set of liquidity adjusted price paths for the at least on commodity over the period of time, the set of liquidity adjusted price paths being generated based at least on the at least one specified control price path, the set of preliminary anticipated optimal schedules, and a specified liquidity function; utilizing an optimal control price path search algorithm that utilizes iterative performance of the determining step and the generating step with updating of the at least one control price paths according to the liquidity adjusted price paths, determining an optimal control price path and an anticipated optimal set of schedules, the anticipated optimal set of schedules including a schedule for each of the plurality of facilities; determining an optimal scheduling option for each of the plurality of facilities based on anticipated optimal set of schedules; and
,storing in a memory optimal scheduling information associated with the optimal scheduling option for each of the plurality of facilities. - View Dependent Claims (2, 3, 4, 5)
-
-
6. A method for determining an anticipated profitability of operation of a plurality of facilities for a period of time implemented at least in part on a computing system, the method comprising:
-
determining a set of preliminary anticipated optimal schedules for each of the plurality of facilities, comprising; generating a decision tree based model for each of the plurality of facilities, each of the decision tree based models accounting for a combined effect, on the optimization of the scheduling of the operation of the respective facility, of; at least one specified control price path including at least one price, over the period of time, of at least one commodity associated with the operation of each of the plurality of facilities, the at least one price of the at least one commodity being affected by the operation of each of the facilities over the period of time; at least one specified level of uncertainty with regard to the at least one specified control price path; and
,at least one specified constraint associated with at least a first state of at least one state of at least one operating parameter associated with the operation of each of the plurality of facilities; and applying a dynamic programming algorithm to the decision tree based models to determine a set of preliminary anticipated optimal schedules, the set of preliminary anticipated optimal schedules including a schedule for each of the plurality of facilities over the period of time; generating a set of liquidity adjusted price paths for the at least on commodity over the period of time, the set of liquidity adjusted price paths being generated based at least on the at least one specified control price path, the set of preliminary anticipated optimal schedules, and a specified liquidity function; utilizing an optimal control price path search algorithm that utilizes iterative performance of the determining step and the generating step with updating of the at least one control price paths according to the liquidity adjusted price paths, determining an optimal control price path and an anticipated optimal set of schedules, the anticipated optimal set of schedules including a schedule for each of the plurality of facilities; determining the anticipated profitability of the plurality of facilities based on the anticipated optimal set of schedules; and
,storing in a memory the anticipated profitability information associated with the anticipated profitability. - View Dependent Claims (7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13)
-
-
14. A computer usable medium storing program code which, when executed by a computer, causes the computer to execute a computerized method for facilitating joint scheduling of operation of each of a plurality of facilities for at least a first time interval of a period of time, the method comprising:
-
determining a set of preliminary anticipated optimal schedules for each of the plurality of facilities, comprising; generating a decision tree based model for each of the plurality of facilities, each of the decision tree based models accounting for a combined effect, on the optimization of the scheduling of the operation of the respective facility, of; at least one specified control price path including at least one price, over the period of time, of at least one commodity associated with the operation of each of the plurality of facilities, the at least one price of the at least one commodity being affected by the operation of each of the facilities over the period of time; at least one specified level of uncertainty with regard to the at least one specified control price path; and
,at least one specified constraint associated with at least a first state of at least one state of at least one operating parameter associated with the operation of each of the plurality of facilities; and
,applying a dynamic optimization algorithm to the decision tree based models to determine a set of preliminary anticipated optimal schedules, the set of preliminary anticipated optimal schedules including a schedule for each of the plurality of facilities over the period of time; generating a set of liquidity adjusted price paths for the at least on commodity over the period of time, the set of liquidity adjusted price paths being generated based at least on the at least one specified control price path, the set of preliminary anticipated optimal schedules, and a specified liquidity function; utilizing an optimal control price path search algorithm that utilizes iterative performance of the determining step and the generating step with updating of the at least one control price paths according to the liquidity adjusted price paths, determining an optimal control price path and an anticipated optimal set of schedules, the anticipated optimal set of schedules including a schedule for each of the plurality of facilities; determining an optimal scheduling option for each of the plurality of facilities based on anticipated optimal set of schedules; and
,storing in a memory optimal scheduling information associated with the optimal scheduling option for each of the plurality of facilities. - View Dependent Claims (15)
-
-
16. A computer usable medium storing program code which, when executed by a computer, causes the computer to execute a computerized method for determining an anticipated profitability of operation of a plurality of facilities for a period of time, the method comprising:
-
determining a set of preliminary anticipated optimal schedules for each of the plurality of facilities, comprising; generating a decision tree based model for each of the plurality of facilities, each of the decision tree based models accounting for a combined effect, on the optimization of the scheduling of the operation of the respective facility, of; at least one specified control price path including at least one price, over the period of time, of at least one commodity associated with the operation of each of the plurality of facilities, the at least one price of the at least one commodity being affected by the operation of each of the facilities over the period of time; at least one specified level of uncertainty with regard to the at least one specified control price path; and
,at least one specified constraint associated with at least a first state of at least one state of at least one operating parameter associated with the operation of each of the plurality of facilities; and applying a dynamic programming algorithm to the decision tree based models to determine a set of preliminary anticipated optimal schedules, the set of preliminary anticipated optimal schedules including a schedule for each of the plurality of facilities over the period of time; generating a set of liquidity adjusted price paths for the at least on commodity over the period of time, the set of liquidity adjusted price paths being generated based at least on the at least one specified control price path, the set of preliminary anticipated optimal schedules, and a specified liquidity function; utilizing an optimal control price path search algorithm that utilizes iterative performance of the determining step and the generating step with updating of the at least one control price paths according to the liquidity adjusted price paths, determining an optimal control price path and an anticipated optimal set of schedules, the anticipated optimal set of schedules including a schedule for each of the plurality of facilities; determining the anticipated profitability of the plurality of facilities based on the anticipated optimal set of schedules; and
,storing in a memory anticipated profitability information associated with the anticipated profitability of the plurality of facilities. - View Dependent Claims (17)
-
-
18. A system for facilitating joint scheduling of operation of each of a plurality of facilities for at least a first time interval of a period of time, the system comprising:
-
means for determining a set of preliminary anticipated optimal schedules for each of the plurality of facilities, comprising; means for generating a decision tree based model for each of the plurality of facilities, each of the decision tree based models accounting for a combined effect, on the optimization of the scheduling of the operation of the respective facility, of; at least one specified control price path including at least one price, over the period of time, of at least one commodity associated with the operation of each of the plurality of facilities, the at least one price of the at least one commodity being affected by the operation of each of the facilities over the period of time; at least one specified level of uncertainty with regard to the at least one specified control price path; and
,at least one specified constraint associated with at least a first state of at least one state of at least one operating parameter associated with the operation of each of the plurality of facilities; and
,means for applying a dynamic optimization algorithm to the decision tree based models to determine a set of preliminary anticipated optimal schedules, the set of preliminary anticipated optimal schedules including a schedule for each of the plurality of facilities over the period of time; means for generating a set of liquidity adjusted price paths for the at least on commodity over the period of time, the set of liquidity adjusted price paths being generated based at least on the at least one specified control price path, the set of preliminary anticipated optimal schedules, and a specified liquidity function; means for utilizing an optimal control price path search algorithm that utilizes iterative performance of the determining step and the generating step with updating of the at least one control price paths according to the liquidity adjusted price paths, determining an optimal control price path and an anticipated optimal set of schedules, the anticipated optimal set of schedules including a schedule for each of the plurality of facilities; means for determining an optimal scheduling option for each of the plurality of facilities based on anticipated optimal set of schedules; and means for storing in a memory optimal scheduling option information associated with the optimal scheduling option for each of the plurality of facilities. - View Dependent Claims (19)
-
-
20. A system for determining an anticipated profitability of operation of a plurality of facilities for a period of time, the system comprising:
-
means for determining a set of preliminary anticipated optimal schedules for each of the plurality of facilities, comprising; means for generating a decision tree based model for each of the plurality of facilities, each of the decision tree based models accounting for a combined effect, on the optimization of the scheduling of the operation of the respective facility, of; at least one specified control price path including at least one price, over the period of time, of at least one commodity associated with the operation of each of the plurality of facilities, the at least one price of the at least one commodity being affected by the operation of each of the facilities over the period of time; at least one specified level of uncertainty with regard to the at least one specified control price path; and
,at least one specified constraint associated with at least a first state of at least one state of at least one operating parameter associated with the operation of each of the plurality of facilities; and means for applying a dynamic programming algorithm to the decision tree based models to determine a set of preliminary anticipated optimal schedules, the set of preliminary anticipated optimal schedules including a schedule for each of the plurality of facilities over the period of time; means for generating a set of liquidity adjusted price paths for the at least on commodity over the period of time, the set of liquidity adjusted price paths being generated based at least on the at least one specified control price path, the set of preliminary anticipated optimal schedules, and a specified liquidity function; means for utilizing an optimal control price path search algorithm that utilizes iterative performance of the determining step and the generating step with updating of the at least one control price paths according to the liquidity adjusted price paths, determining an optimal control price path and an anticipated optimal set of schedules, the anticipated optimal set of schedules including a schedule for each of the plurality of facilities; means for determining the anticipated profitability of the plurality of facilities based on the anticipated optimal set of schedules; and
,means for storing in a memory anticipated profitability information associated with the anticipated profitability of the plurality of facilities. - View Dependent Claims (21)
-
-
22. A system for facilitating joint scheduling of operation of each of a plurality of facilities for at least a first time interval of a period of time, the system comprising:
-
a processor; and memory accessible by the processor; wherein the processor is programmed for; determining a set of preliminary anticipated optimal schedules for each of the plurality of facilities, comprising; generating a decision tree based model for each of the plurality of facilities, each of the decision tree based models accounting for a combined effect, on the optimization of the scheduling of the operation of the respective facility, of; at least one specified control price path including at least one price, over the period of time, of at least one commodity associated with the operation of each of the plurality of facilities, the at least one price of the at least one commodity being affected by the operation of each of the facilities over the period of time; at least one specified level of uncertainty with regard to the at least one specified control price path; and
,at least one specified constraint associated with at least a first state of at least one state of at least one operating parameter associated with the operation of each of the plurality of facilities; and
,applying a dynamic optimization algorithm to the decision tree based models to determine a set of preliminary anticipated optimal schedules, the set of preliminary anticipated optimal schedules including a schedule for each of the plurality of facilities over the period of time; generating a set of liquidity adjusted price paths for the at least on commodity over the period of time, the set of liquidity adjusted price paths being generated based at least on the at least one specified control price path, the set of preliminary anticipated optimal schedules, and a specified liquidity function; utilizing an optimal control price path search algorithm that utilizes iterative performance of the determining step and the generating step with updating of the at least one control price paths according to the liquidity adjusted price paths, determining an optimal control price path and an anticipated optimal set of schedules, the anticipated optimal set of schedules including a schedule for each of the plurality of facilities; and
,determining an optimal scheduling option for each of the plurality of facilities based on anticipated optimal set of schedules. - View Dependent Claims (23)
-
-
24. A method for facilitating joint scheduling of operation of each of a plurality of facilities for at least a first time interval of a period of time implemented at least in part on a computing system, the method comprising:
-
determining a set of anticipated optimal schedules for each of the plurality of facilities, comprising; generating a decision tree based model for each of the plurality of facilities, each of the decision tree based models accounting for a combined effect, on the optimization of the scheduling of the operation of the respective facility, of; at least one specified control price path including at least one price, over the period of time, of at least one commodity associated with the operation of each of the plurality of facilities, the at least one price of the at least one commodity being affected by the operation of each of the facilities over the period of time; at least one specified level of uncertainty with regard to the at least one control price path, said at least one specified level of uncertainty comprising a level of reversion rate and a level of volatility; and at least one specified constraint associated with at least a first state of at least one state of at least one operating parameter associated with the operation of each of the plurality of facilities; and iteratively applying a dynamic optimization algorithm to the decision tree based models to determine a set of anticipated optimal schedules including a schedule for each of the plurality of facilities over the period of time, comprising, at each iteration; updating the at least one specified control price path; and applying the dynamic optimization algorithm utilizing the updated at least one specified control price path; and generating a set of liquidity adjusted price paths for the at least one commodity over the period of time, the set of liquidity adjusted price paths being generated based at least on the at least one specified control price path, the set of preliminary anticipated optimal schedules, and a specified liquidity function; utilizing an optimal control price path search algorithm that utilizes iterative performance of the determining step and the generating step with updating of the at least one control price paths according to the liquidity adjusted price paths, determining an optimal control price path and an anticipated optimal set of schedules, the anticipated optimal set of schedules including a schedule for each of the plurality of facilities; determining an optimal scheduling option for each of the plurality of facilities based on the set of anticipated optimal schedules; and storing in a memory optimal scheduling information associated with the optimal scheduling option for each of the plurality of facilities. - View Dependent Claims (25, 26)
-
Specification