Valuing and optimizing scheduling of generation assets
First Claim
1. A method implemented on at least one computing system for facilitating scheduling of operation of a facility for at least a first time interval of a period of time, the method comprising:
- using a processor, generating a decision tree based model accounting for a combined effect, on the scheduling of the operation of the facility, of;
at least one specified forward price path, over the period of time, including at least one price of at least one commodity associated with operation of the facility;
at least one specified level of uncertainty with regard to the at least one specified forward price path; and
,at least one specified constraint associated with at least a first state of at least one state of at least one operating parameter associated with the operation of the facility;
applying a dynamic optimization algorithm to the decision tree based model to determine an optimal scheduling option for at least the first interval of time; and
,storing in a memory optimal scheduling option information associated with the optimal scheduling option,wherein generating a decision tree based model accounting for a combined effect on the scheduling of the facility comprises;
generating, based on the specified forward price path and the at least one specified level of uncertainty, a price tree based model to model possible price paths over the period of time;
generating a state decision tree based model to model possible operating parameter states over the period of time; and
,mathematically merging the price tree based model and the state decision tree based model to generate the decision tree based model.
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Accused Products
Abstract
The present invention provides methods and systems for determining anticipated profit from facilities such as electrical power generation facilities, for determining values for assets based on profitability of facilities, and for determining optimal operational scheduling options for facilities. Methods and systems are provided which utilize a dynamic programming algorithm and a decision tree based model in which one or more operating constraints are implicitly modeled, facilitating computational tractability. Additionally, methods and systems are provided that utilize a dynamic programming algorithm and a decision tree based model that accounts for a combined effect of price paths with specified uncertainty as well as operational constraints. Furthermore, methods and systems are provided that address profitability, valuation, and scheduling in relation to a group, or portfolio, of facilities, accounting for liquidity factors as well as group, or global, constraints.
55 Citations
46 Claims
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1. A method implemented on at least one computing system for facilitating scheduling of operation of a facility for at least a first time interval of a period of time, the method comprising:
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using a processor, generating a decision tree based model accounting for a combined effect, on the scheduling of the operation of the facility, of; at least one specified forward price path, over the period of time, including at least one price of at least one commodity associated with operation of the facility; at least one specified level of uncertainty with regard to the at least one specified forward price path; and
,at least one specified constraint associated with at least a first state of at least one state of at least one operating parameter associated with the operation of the facility; applying a dynamic optimization algorithm to the decision tree based model to determine an optimal scheduling option for at least the first interval of time; and
,storing in a memory optimal scheduling option information associated with the optimal scheduling option, wherein generating a decision tree based model accounting for a combined effect on the scheduling of the facility comprises; generating, based on the specified forward price path and the at least one specified level of uncertainty, a price tree based model to model possible price paths over the period of time; generating a state decision tree based model to model possible operating parameter states over the period of time; and
,mathematically merging the price tree based model and the state decision tree based model to generate the decision tree based model. - View Dependent Claims (2)
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3. A method implemented on at least one computing system for determining an anticipated profitability of operation of a facility over a period of time, the method comprising:
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using a processor, generating a decision tree based model accounting for a combined effect, on scheduling of the operation of the facility over the period of time, of; at least one specified forward price path, over the period of time, including at least one price of at least one commodity associated with operation of the facility; at least one specified level of uncertainty with regard to the at least one specified forward price path; and
,at least one specified constraint associated with at least a first state of at least one state of at least one operating parameter associated with the operation of the facility; applying a dynamic optimization algorithm to the decision tree based model to determine the anticipated profitability over the period of time; and
,storing in a memory anticipated profitability information associated with the anticipated profitability, wherein generating a decision tree based model accounting for a combined effect on the scheduling of the facility comprises; generating, based on the specified forward price path and the at least one specified level of uncertainty, a price tree based model to model possible price paths over the period of time; generating a state decision tree based model to model possible operating parameter states over the period of time; and
,mathematically merging the price tree based model and the state decision tree based model to generate the decision tree based model. - View Dependent Claims (4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36)
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37. A computer usable storage medium storing program code which, when executed by a computer, causes the computer to execute a computerized method for facilitating scheduling of operation of a facility for at least a first time interval of a period of time, the method comprising:
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using a processor, generating a decision tree based model accounting for a combined effect, on the scheduling of the operation of the facility, of; at least one specified forward price path, over the period of time, including at least one price of at least one commodity associated with operation of the facility; at least one specified level of uncertainty with regard to the at least one specified forward price path, said at least one specified level of uncertainty comprising a level of reversion rate and a level of volatility; and
,at least one specified constraint associated with at least a first state of at least one state of at least one operating parameter associated with the operation of the facility; applying a dynamic optimization algorithm to the decision tree based model to determine an optimal scheduling option for at least the first interval of time; and
,storing optimal scheduling option information associated with the optimal scheduling option in a memory, wherein generating a decision tree based model accounting for a combined effect on the scheduling of the facility comprises; generating, based on the specified forward price path and the at least one specified level of uncertainty, a price tree based model to model possible price paths over the period of time; generating a state decision tree based model to model possible operating parameter states over the period of time; and
,mathematically merging the price tree based model and the state decision tree based model to generate the decision tree based model. - View Dependent Claims (38)
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39. A computer usable storage medium storing program code which, when executed by a computer, causes the computer to execute a computerized method for determining an anticipated profitability of operation of a facility over a period of time, the method comprising:
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using a processor, generating a decision tree based model accounting for a combined effect, on scheduling of the operation of the facility over the period of time, of; at least one specified forward price path, over the period of time, including at least one price of at least one commodity associated with operation of the facility; at least one specified level of uncertainty with regard to the at least one specified forward price path; and
,at least one specified constraint associated with at least a first state of at least one state of at least one operating parameter associated with the operation of the facility; applying a dynamic optimization algorithm to the decision tree based model to determine the anticipated profitability over the period of time; and storing in a memory anticipated profitability information associated with the anticipated profitability, wherein generating a decision tree based model accounting for a combined effect on the scheduling of the facility comprises; generating, based on the specified forward price path and the at least one specified level of uncertainty, a price tree based model to model possible price paths over the period of time; generating a state decision tree based model to model possible operating parameter states over the period of time; and
, mathematically merging the price tree based model and the state decision tree based model to generate the decision tree based model. - View Dependent Claims (40)
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41. A computerized system for facilitating scheduling of operation of a facility for at least a first time interval of a period of time, the system comprising:
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a processor; memory communicatively coupled with the processor, the memory comprising instructions executable by the processor for performing the following; generating a decision tree based model accounting for a combined effect, on the scheduling of the operation of the facility, of; at least one specified forward price path, over the period of time, including at least one price of at least one commodity associated with operation of the facility; at least one specified level of uncertainty with regard to the at least one specified forward price path; and
,at least one specified constraint associated with at least a first state of at least one state of at least one operating parameter associated with the operation of the facility; applying a dynamic optimization algorithm to the decision tree based model to determine an optimal scheduling option for at least the first interval of time; and storing in a memory optimal scheduling option information associated with the optimal scheduling option, wherein generating a decision tree based model accounting for a combined effect on the scheduling of the facility comprises the following; generating, based on the specified forward price path and the at least one specified level of uncertainty, a price tree based model to model possible price paths over the period of time; generating a state decision tree based model to model possible operating parameter states over the period of time; and
,mathematically merging the price tree based model and the state decision tree based model to generate the decision tree based model. - View Dependent Claims (42)
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43. A computerized system for determining an anticipated profitability of operation of a facility over a period of time, the system comprising:
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a processor; memory communicatively coupled with the processor, the memory comprising instructions executable by the processor for performing the folling; generating a decision tree based model accounting for a combined effect, on scheduling of the operation of the facility, of; at least one specified forward price path, over the period of time, including at least one price of at least one commodity associated with operation of the facility; at least one specified level of uncertainty with regard to the at least one specified forward price path; and
,at least one specified constraint associated with at least a first state of at least one state of at least one operating parameter associated with the operation of the facility; and applying a dynamic optimization algorithm to the decision tree based model to determine the anticipated profitability over the period of time, wherein generating a decision tree based model accounting for a combined effect on the scheduling of the facility comprises the following; generating, based on the specified forward price path and the at least one specified level of uncertainty, a price tree based model to model possible price paths over the period of time; generating a state decision tree based model to model possible operating parameter states over the period of time; and
,mathematically merging the price tree based model and the state decision tree based model to generate the decision tree based model. - View Dependent Claims (44)
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45. A computerized system for facilitating scheduling of operation of a facility for at least a first time interval of a period of time, the system comprising:
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a processor; and memory accessible by the processor; wherein the processor is programmed for; generating a decision tree based model accounting for a combined effect, on optimization of the scheduling of the operation of the facility, of; at least one specified forward price path, over the period of time, including at least one price of at least one commodity associated with operation of the facility, the at least one specified forward price path being determined from information stored in the memory; at least one specified level of uncertainty with regard to the at least one specified forward price path, the at least one specified level of uncertainty being determined from information stored in the memory; and
,at least one specified constraint associated with at least a first state of at least one state of at least one operating parameter associated with the operation of the facility, the at least one specified constraint being determined from information stored in the memory; and applying a dynamic optimization algorithm to the decision tree based model to determine an optimal scheduling option for at least the first interval of time, wherein generating a decision tree based model accounting for a combined effect on the scheduling of the facility comprises; generating, based on the specified forward price path and the at least one specified level of uncertainty, a price tree based model to model possible price paths over the period of time; generating a state decision tree based model to model possible operating parameter states over the period of time; and
,mathematically merging the price tree based model and the state decision tree based model to generate the decision tree based model. - View Dependent Claims (46)
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Specification