Storm top detection and prediction

• US 7,486,220 B1
• Filed: 09/28/2006
• Issued: 02/03/2009
• Est. Priority Date: 09/28/2006
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: Rockwell Collins, Inc. (Raytheon Technologies Corporation d/b/a RTX)
• Original Assignee: Rockwell Collins, Inc. (Raytheon Technologies Corporation d/b/a RTX)
• Inventors: Woodell, Daniel L., Kronfeld, Kevin M., Katakura, Koji
• Primary Examiner(s): Tarcza; Thomas H.
• Assistant Examiner(s): GALT, CASSI J
• Application Number:
  US11/528,829
• Time in Patent Office: 859 Days
• Field of Search: 342/26.R, 342/26.A, 342/26.B, 342/26.C, 342/26.D, 342/460, 702/3, 702/4
• US Class Current: 342/26.00B
• CPC Class Codes: G01S 13/953 mounted on aircraft
• CPC Class Codes: G01W 1/10 Devices for predicting weather conditions computers per se G06; display devices G09
• CPC Class Codes: Y02A 90/10 Information and communication technologies [ICT] supporting adaptation to climate change, e.g. for weather forecasting or climate simulation

Abstract

A method of predicting storm cell characteristics at a future time is provided. A value relating to a characteristic of the storm cell is determined from reflectivity data processed from signals received from a radar scan of the storm cell. A second storm cell is identified that is part of the same weather system as the storm cell. A plurality of values relating to the characteristic for the identified second storm cell is received from a memory wherein the plurality of values were determined at a plurality of different times. The determined value of the storm cell is compared with the determined plurality of values of the identified second storm cell. A growth rate of the storm cell is determined. A maximum height of the storm cell at a third time in the future is calculated based on the comparison and the determined growth rate and presented to a user.

Claims

1. A radar system for an aircraft, the radar system predicting storm cell characteristics at a future time, the radar system comprising:

an antenna adapted to receive signals reflected from a first storm cell;

a receiver coupled to the antenna, the receiver adapted to process the received signals thereby forming reflectivity data associated with a scan of the first storm cell;

a processor coupled to the receiver, the processor configured to

receive the formed reflectivity data;

determine a value relating to a characteristic of the first storm cell from the received reflectivity data;

identify a second storm cell, wherein the second storm cell is part of the same weather system as the first storm cell;

receive a plurality of values relating to the characteristic for the identified second storm cell, the plurality of values determined at a plurality of different times;

compare the determined value of the characteristic of the first storm cell with the received plurality of values of the characteristic of the identified second first storm cell;

determine a growth rate of the first storm cell;

calculate a maximum height of the first storm cell at a third time in the future based on the comparison and the determined growth rate; and

present the calculated maximum height of the first storm cell at the third time to a user, and

a memory operably coupled to the processor to receive and to store the plurality of values.

2. A computer-readable medium having computer-readable instructions stored thereon that, upon execution by a processor, cause the processor to predict storm cell characteristics at a future time, the instructions comprising:

receiving a value relating to a characteristic of a first storm cell;

identifying a second storm cell, wherein the second storm cell is part of the same weather system as the first storm cell;

receiving a plurality of values relating to the characteristic for the identified second storm cell, the plurality of values recorded at a plurality of different times;

comparing the received value of the characteristic of the first storm cell with the received plurality of values of the charateristic of the identified second storm cell;

determining a growth rate of the first storm cell;

calculating a maximum height of the first storm cell at a third time in the future based on the comparison and the determined growth rate; and

presenting the calculated maximum height of the first storm cell at the third time to a user.

3. A method of predicting storm cell characteristics at a future time, the method comprising:

receiving a value relating to a characteristic of a first storm cell;

identifying a second storm cell, wherein the second storm cell is part of the same weather system as the first storm cell;

receiving a plurality of values relating to the characteristic for the identified second storm cell, the plurality of values recorded at a plurality of different times;

comparing the received value of the characteristics of the first storm cell with the received plurality of values of the characteristic of the identified second storm cell;

determining a growth rate of the first storm cell;

calculating a maximum height of the first storm cell at a third time in the future based on the comparison and the determined growth rate; and

presenting the calculated maximum height of the first storm cell at the third time to a user.

4. The method of claim 3, wherein the second storm cell is the same type of weather as the first storm cell.

5. The method of claim 3, further comprising determining a maturity level of the first storm cell based on the comparison.

6. The method of claim 3, further comprising identifying a plurality of second storm cells, wherein the plurality of second storm cells are part of the same weather system as the first storm cell.

7. The method of claim 6, wherein comparing the received value of the storm cell comprises generating a maturity model based on the received plurality of values of the characteristics of the identified plurality of second storm cells and determining a maturity level of the first storm cell based on the maturity model.

8. The method of claim 7, wherein the generated maturity model includes a trend of the characteristic for the plurality of second storm cells.

9. The method of claim 8, wherein the characteristic is selected from the group consisting of a storm cell volume, a storm cell vertical reflectivity profile, a storm cell lightning flash rate, a storm cell height, a storm cell vertically integrated liquid amount, a storm cell area above an isotherm level a storm cell area above an altitude, a storm cell volume above an isotherm level a storm cell volume above an altitude, a total reflectivity value, an average reflectivity value, a horizontal growth rate, a vertical growth rate, turbulence associated with a storm cell hail associated with the storm cell a speed of movement, a direction of movement, and an average growth rate.

10. The method of claim 3, wherein the characteristic is selected from the group consisting of a storm cell volume, a storm cell vertical reflectivity profile, a storm cell lightning flash rate, a storm cell height, a storm cell vertically integrated liquid amount, a storm cell area above an isotherm level, a storm cell area above an altitude, a storm cell volume above an isotherm level, a storm cell volume above an altitude, a total reflectivity value, an average reflectivity value, a horizontal growth rate, a vertical growth rate, turbulence associated with a storm cell, hail associated with the storm cell, a speed of movement, a direction of movement, and an average growth rate.

11. The method of claim 10, wherein the characteristic includes an uncertainty of the characteristic selected from the group.

12. The method of claim 3, wherein the value of the first storm cell includes a predicted maximum height of the first storm cell at the third time and further wherein calculating the maximum height of the first storm cell includes adjusting the predicted maximum height.

13. The method of claim 3, wherein the value of the characteristic of the first storm cell includes a growth rate of a maximum height of the first storm cell and further wherein calculating the maximum height of the first storm cell includes adjusting the determined growth rate.

14. The method of claim 3, wherein the value of the characteristic of the first storm cell is received trough a data link operably coupled with a second radar system.

15. The method of claim 3, further comprising determining if the second storm cell is part of the same weather system as the first storm cell by comparing a distance between the first storm cell and the second storm cell.

16. The method of claim 3, further comprising determining if the second storm cell is part of the same weather system as the first storm cell by determining if the first storm cell and the second storm cell are contiguous at or below an isotherm atmospheric layer.

17. The method of claim 16, wherein the isotherm atmospheric layer is a 0°

Celsius isotherm atmospheric layer.

18. The method of claim 3, wherein the third time is a time at which an aircraft is predicted to approach within a predetermined distance of the first storm cell.

19. The method of claim 18, further comprising calculating an uncertainty of the calculated maximum height and presenting the calculated uncertainty to the user with the calculated maximum height.

20. The method of claim 3, wherein the second storm cell is determined to be decaying and further wherein the calculated maximum height of the first storm cell is limited to not exceed a maximum height achieved by the second storm cell.

21. The method of claim 3, further comprising:

calculating a first area of the first storm cell above an isotherm level at a first time;

calculating a second area of the first storm cell above the isotherm level at a second time; and

wherein the growth rate is determined based on a comparison between the first area and the second area and a time difference between the first time and the second time.

22. The method of claim 21, further comprising determining the growth rate based on a plurality of isotherm levels.

23. A radar system for an aircraft, the radar system predicting storm cell characteristics at a future time, the radar system comprising:

an antenna means adapted to receive signals reflected from a storm cell;

a receiver means coupled to the antenna means, the receiver means adapted to process the received signals thereby forming reflectivity data associated with a scan of the storm cell;

a processor means coupled to the receiver means, the processor means configured to

receive the formed reflectivity data;

determine a value relating to a characteristic of the storm cell from the received reflectivity data;

identify a second storm cell wherein the second storm cell is part of the same weather system as the storm cell;

receive a plurality of values relating to the characteristic for the identified second storm cell, the plurality of values determined at a plurality of different times;

compare the determined value of the characteristic of the first storm cell with the received plurality of values of the characteristic of the identified second storm cell;

determine a growth rate of the first storm cell;

calculate a maximum height of the first storm cell at a third time in the future based on the comparison and the determined growth rate; and

present the calculated maximum height of the first storm cell at the third time to a user; and

a memory means operably coupled to the processor means to receive and to store the plurality of values.