Business opportunity analytics with dependence

• US 7,493,277 B1
• Filed: 08/21/2002
• Issued: 02/17/2009
• Est. Priority Date: 08/21/2002
• Status: Expired due to Fees

• Current Assignee: Mydecide Incorporated
• Original Assignee: Mydecide Incorporated
• Inventors: Amos, John, Korver, Clint, Uhl, Stephen
• Primary Examiner(s): Trammell; James P.
• Assistant Examiner(s): Trotter; Scott S.
• Application Number:
  US10/224,379
• Time in Patent Office: 2,372 Days
• Field of Search: 705/36, 705/10, 705/37, 700/93
• US Class Current: 705/36.00R
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/0637 Strategic management or analysis, e.g. setting a goal or target of an organisation; Planning actions based on goals; Analysis or evaluation of effectiveness of goals
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/00 Finance; Insurance; Tax strategies; Processing of corporate or income taxes
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/04 Trading; Exchange, e.g. stocks, commodities, derivatives or currency exchange
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/06 Asset management; Financial planning or analysis

Abstract

A system and method are provided to analyze the value of an opportunity, including the dependence and interrelationship between opportunities. A computer-implemented system having a number of software modules is provided that facilitates the calculation of portfolio effects and enables, among other things, the modeling of opportunities, including generic nomenclature and procedures for describing and encoding a wide range of relationships between opportunities.

Claims

1. A computer implemented system for analyzing metrics associated with an opportunity, including any portfolio effects due to the results of one or more of opportunities being dependent on or related to other opportunities, the system comprising:

one or more processors executing a plurality of modules, the modules comprising;

a modeling module that provides models of two or more opportunities, wherein a model of a given opportunity enables a determination of one or more metrics representing the value of the given opportunity as a function of one or more variables that impact the value of the opportunity; and

a dependency module that obtains information related to dependencies between two or more of the opportunities, wherein a dependency is a restriction placed on a variable of a model of a first one of the two or more opportunities that depends on either (i) a variable of a model of a second one of the two or more opportunities, or (ii) a metric representing the value of the second one of the two or more opportunities determined from the model of the second one of the two or more opportunities; and

an electronically readable storage medium providing storage for a database that stores information obtained by the dependency module related to the dependencies between the opportunities, wherein the information stored in the database for a given dependency includes an identification of a variable of a model of one of the two or more opportunities that is restricted by the given dependency;

wherein the one or more processors further execute a calculation engine that implements a model provided by the modeling module to determine metrics representing the value of a given opportunity, wherein the metrics reflect one or more dependencies between the given opportunity and other ones of the opportunities.

2. The system of claim 1, wherein at least one model of one or more opportunities comprises a variable having an uncertainty and a dependency, and wherein the dependency of the variable dictates that the uncertainty of the variable is either a function of a variable of another model of another opportunity or a function of a metric representing the value of the other opportunity.

3. The system of claim 2, wherein any assumptions that trigger the creation of a new dependency are recorded in the database.

4. The system of claim 1, wherein the calculation engine first implements the model provided by the modeling module to calculate preliminary metrics that do not reflect dependencies between the given opportunity and other ones of the opportunities, queries the database for any dependencies between the given opportunity and other ones of the opportunities, and, if any relevant dependencies are found, implements information related to the found relevant dependencies that is stored in the database to modify the preliminary metrics to provide a final output that includes the metrics representing the value of the given opportunity and reflects the found relevant dependencies.

5. The system of claim 1, wherein the dependencies for which the dependency module obtains information include constraint-type dependencies, wherein a constraint-type dependency exists where the variable of the model of the first one of the two or more opportunities is constrained to a range of possible values that is defined in part based on either a variable of the model of the second one of the two or more opportunities, or a metric representing the value of the second one of the two or more opportunities determined from the model of the second one of the two or more opportunities.

6. The system of claim 1, wherein the database comprises a number of fields that pertain to elements of dependencies between the opportunities, including one or more of a name, a description origin, a type, a comparison, a filter, or a value model field.

7. The system of claim 1, wherein the dependencies for which the dependency module obtains information include dependence-type dependencies, wherein a dependence-type dependency exists where the variable of the model of the first one of the two or more opportunities is equal to either a variable of the model of the second one of the two or more opportunities, or a metric representing the value of the second one of the two or more opportunities determined from the model of the second one of the two or more opportunities.

8. A computer implemented method for analyzing metrics associated with an opportunity, including any portfolio effects due to the results of one or more of opportunities being dependent on or related to other opportunities, the method comprising:

modeling by a computer opportunities to provide models of the opportunities, wherein a model of a given opportunity enables a determination of one or more metrics representing the value of the given opportunity as a function of one or more variables that impact the value of the opportunity;

obtaining information related to dependencies between two or more of the opportunities, wherein a dependency is a restriction placed on a variable of a model of a first one of the two or more opportunities that depends on either (i) a variable of a model of a second one of the two or more opportunities, or (ii) a metric representing the value of the second one of the two or more opportunities;

storing the obtained information related to dependencies between the opportunities to a database, wherein the information stored in the database for a given dependency includes an identification of a variable of a model one of the two or more opportunities that is restricted by the given dependency;

implementing a model of a given opportunity to calculate metrics representing the value of the given opportunity, wherein the metrics reflect one or more dependencies between the given opportunity and other ones of the opportunities; and

storing the calculated metrics.

9. The method of claim 8, wherein at least one model of the opportunities some comprises a variable having an uncertainty and a dependency, and wherein the dependency of the variable dictates that the uncertainty of the variable is a function of either a variable of another model of another opportunity or a function of a metric representing the value of the other opportunity.

10. The method of claim 9, wherein any assumptions that trigger the creation of a new dependency are stored with the obtained information related to dependencies.

11. The method of claim 8, wherein implementing the model of the given opportunity to calculate the metrics comprises:

implementing the model to calculate preliminary metrics that do not reflect dependencies between the given opportunity and other ones of the opportunities;

querying the database for any dependencies between the given opportunity and other ones of the opportunities; and

if any relevant dependencies are found, implementing stored information in the database related to the found relevant dependencies to modify the preliminary metrics to provide a final output that includes the metrics representing the value of the given opportunity that reflect the found dependencies.

12. The method of claim 8, wherein the dependencies for which the dependency module obtains information include constraint-type dependencies, wherein a constraint-type dependency exists where the variable of the model of the first one of the two or more opportunities is constrained to a range of possible values that is defined in part based on either a variable of the model of the second one of the two or more opportunities, or a metric representing the value of the second one of the two or more opportunities determined from the model of the second one of the two or more opportunities.

13. A processor readable medium for analyzing metrics associated with an opportunity, including any portfolio effects due to the results of one or more of opportunities being dependent on or related to other opportunities, the processor readable medium comprising:

a first processor readable program code for modeling opportunities to provide models of the opportunities, wherein a model of a given opportunity enables a determination of one or more metrics representing the value of the given opportunity as a function of one or more variables that impact the value of the given opportunity;

a second processor readable program code for obtaining information related to dependencies between two or more of the opportunities, wherein a dependency is a restriction placed on a variable of a model of a first one of the two or more opportunities that depends on either (i) a variable of a model of a second one of the two or more opportunities, or (ii) a metric representing the value of the second one of the two or more opportunities determined from the model of the second one of the two or more opportunities;

a third processor readable program code for storing the obtained information related to dependencies between the opportunities to a database, wherein the information stored in the database for a given dependency includes an identification of a variable of a model of one of the two or more opportunities that is restricted by the given dependency; and

a fourth processor readable program code for implementing a model of a given opportunity provided by the first processor readable program code to calculate metrics representing the value of the given opportunity, wherein the metrics reflect one or more dependencies between the given opportunity and other ones of the opportunities.

14. The processor readable medium of claim 13, wherein at least one model of an opportunity comprises a variable having an uncertainty and a dependency, and wherein the dependency of the variable dictates that the uncertainty of the variable is either a function of a variable of another model of another opportunity or a function of a metric representing the value of the other opportunity.

15. The processor readable medium of claim 14, wherein any assumptions that trigger the creation of a new dependency are stored with the obtained information related to.

16. The processor readable medium of claim 13, wherein fourth processor readable program code comprises:

code for implementing the model of the given opportunity to calculate preliminary metrics that do not reflect dependencies between the given opportunity and other ones of the opportunities;

code for querying the database for any dependencies between the given opportunity and other ones of the opportunities; and

code implementing stored information from the database related to found dependencies to modify the preliminary metrics to provide a final output that includes the metrics representing the value of the given opportunity that reflect the found dependencies, if any dependencies are found.

17. The processor readable medium of claim 13, wherein the dependencies between the given opportunity and the other ones of the opportunities for which information is obtained comprise constraint-type dependencies, wherein a constraint-type dependency exists where the variable of the model of the first one of the two or more opportunities is constrained to a range of possible values that is defined in part based on either a variable of the model of the second one of the two or more opportunities, or a metric representing the value of the second one of the two or more opportunities determined from the model of the second one of the two or more opportunities.