Systems and methods for forecasting container density

• US 7,509,228 B2
• Filed: 07/12/2006
• Issued: 03/24/2009
• Est. Priority Date: 07/13/2005
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: United Parcel Service Of America Incorporated (United Parcel Service Incorporated)
• Original Assignee: United Parcel Service Of America Incorporated (United Parcel Service Incorporated)
• Inventors: Scott, J. Todd, Bielefeld, Christopher F., Myers, Jessica E., Moorman, James B., McLaughlin, Rodger F., O'Brien, John H. II
• Primary Examiner(s): Bui; Bryan
• Application Number:
  US11/457,015
• Publication Number:
  US 20070016538A1
• Time in Patent Office: 986 Days
• Field of Search: 702/1, 702/128, 702/129, 702/173, 702/182, 705/41, 705/410
• US Class Current: 702/173
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/08 Logistics, e.g. warehousing, loading or distribution; Inventory or stock management

Abstract

A system and methods for estimating the size of a parcel based on a mathematical formula derived from other parcels within a size category. The system may include a variety of modules in communication with a relational database for storing data related to parcels being delivered. Similar data may be retrieved from a variety of sources with embodiments of the present invention prioritizing the data based on the reliability of the source. In a further aspect, equipment needs are forecasted by evaluating parcel data over a period of time.

Claims

1. A system for estimating the size of a select parcel having a weight and associated with one of a plurality of size categories, said system comprising:

one or more databases storing data associated with a plurality of parcels, said data including weight data, size data, and size category data for each of said plurality of parcels; and

a size estimating module configured to include program code instructions to;

retrieve weight and size data from said one or more databases for at least a portion of said plurality of parcels associated with the same size category as said select parcel;

analyze said retrieved data to determine a mathematical relationship between weight and size; and

estimate the size of said select parcel based on said mathematical relationship and said weight of said select parcel.

2. The system of claim 1, wherein said categories are further based on a service level.

3. The system of claim 1, wherein the mathematical relationship is a polynomial equation in which said calculated size equals:

a numerical constant (c1);

plus

a first coefficient (c2) multiplied times a first variable;

wherein said analysis produces a value for the numerical constant and the first coefficient that are specific to said plurality of parcels in said same size category.

4. The system of claim 1, wherein said mathematical relationship is a polynomial equation in which the parcel size equals:

a numerical constant (c1);

plus

a first coefficient (c2) multiplied times a first variable;

plus

a second coefficient (c3) multiplied times a second variable,

wherein the statistical analysis produces a value for the numerical constant, the first coefficient, and the second coefficient that are specific to said plurality of parcels in said same size category.

5. The system of claim 1, wherein size data for at least one of said plurality of parcels is determined based on the associated category.

6. A method of estimating the size of a first parcel of a plurality of parcels shipped by a shipping enterprise comprising the steps of:

associating each of said plurality of parcels with one of a plurality of categories based on relative size;

assigning said first parcel to a first category based on its size, wherein said first category is taken from said plurality of categories;

retrieving data including weight and size associated with a plurality of parcels in said first category;

analyzing said data for said plurality of parcels in said first category to determine a mathematical relationship between weight and size; and

applying said mathematical relationship to calculate the size of said first parcel based on its weight.

7. The method of claim 6, wherein said step of associating is further based on a service level and wherein said step of assigning is further based on a service level.

8. The method of claim 6, wherein the mathematical relationship is a polynomial equation in which the parcel size equals:

a numerical constant (c1);

plus

a first coefficient (c2) multiplied times a first variable;

wherein the statistical analysis produces a value for the numerical constant and the first coefficient that are specific to said plurality of parcels in said first category.

9. The method of claim 6, wherein the mathematical relationship is a polynomial equation in which the parcel size equals:

a numerical constant (c1);

plus

a first coefficient (c2) multiplied times a first variable;

plus

a second coefficient (c3) multiplied times a second variable,

wherein the statistical analysis produces a value for the numerical constant, the first coefficient, and the second coefficient that are specific to said plurality of parcels in said first category.

10. The method of claim 6, wherein said step of retrieving further comprises:

gathering weight data from a plurality of sources;

prioritizing said plurality of sources; and

retrieving weight data from one of said plurality of sources based at least in part on said prioritizing step.

11. The method of claim 6 further comprising the steps of:

assigning a permissible size range for each of said categories; and

comparing said size data to said range to determine if said size data for each of said plurality of parcels is acceptable for use in determining said mathematical relationship.

12. A system for forecasting capacity requirements for a delivery lane comprising:

a forecasting database storing data relating to a plurality of parcels for said delivery lane, said data for each parcel including weight data, size data, and data indicating one of a plurality of categories based on size, and wherein said size data for at least some of said plurality of parcels is an estimated value; and

a forecasting module configured to include program code instructions to;

retrieve said size data from said forecasting database;

calculate a cumulative size of said parcels by combining the size data for each of said plurality of parcels; and

forecast size capacity requirements by applying a growth rate to said cumulative size.

13. The system of claim 12, further comprising a size estimating module configured to:

retrieve data from a second database for a plurality of parcels having both weight and size data;

analyze said retrieved data to determine a mathematical relationship between weight and size for each of said plurality of categories;

calculate the size of at least one parcel not having size data based on said mathematical relationship for the at least one parcel'"'"'s associated category; and

build said forecasting database with data retrieved from said second database and calculated size data.

14. A method for forecasting capacity needs for a delivery lane comprising the steps of:

gathering parcel data comprising weight data, size data and size category data for a plurality of parcels associated with said delivery lane wherein components of said parcel data are collected from a plurality of sources;

building a database containing said parcel data;

combining said size data to obtain a cumulative size;

forecasting a future cumulative size by applying a growth rate to said cumulative size; and

comparing said forecasted future cumulative size to a present capacity for said delivery lane to determine future equipment needs.

15. The method of claim 14, wherein said step of gathering parcel data comprises:

gathering parcel data for a first parcel of said plurality of parcels, said first parcel having a first weight data and a first size category;

retrieving data including weight and size associated with a plurality of parcels in said first category;

analyzing said data for said plurality of parcels in first size category to determine a mathematical relationship between weight and size; and

applying said mathematical relationship to calculate the size of said first parcel based on said first weight.

16. The method of claim 15, wherein the mathematical relationship is a polynomial equation in which said calculated size equals:

a numerical constant (c1);

plus

a first coefficient (c2) multiplied times a first variable;

wherein said statistical analysis produces a value for the numerical constant and the first coefficient that are specific to said plurality of parcels in said first category.

17. The method of claim 15, wherein said mathematical relationship is a polynomial equation in which the parcel size equals:

a numerical constant (c1);

plus

a first coefficient (c2) multiplied times a first variable;

plus

a second coefficient (c3) multiplied times a second variable,

wherein the statistical analysis produces a value for the numerical constant, the first coefficient, and the second coefficient that are specific to said plurality of parcels in said first category.

18. The method of claim 15, wherein said parcel data further comprises a service level category.

19. The method of claim 14, further comprising the step of prioritizing said plurality of sources for said weight data and said size data and wherein said step of building a database further comprises selecting weight data and size data base at least in part on said prioritizing step.

20. The method of claim 14, further comprising the step of forecasting the number of containers required by dividing said forecasted future cumulative size by a predetermined container volume.

21. The method of claim 14, wherein said delivery lane is identified by a first delivery center and a second delivery center.

22. A computer program product for estimating the size of a first parcel, the computer program product embodied on one or more computer-readable media and comprising computer-executable instructions for:

associating each of a plurality of parcels with a category based on relative size;

assigning said first parcel to one of said categories based on its size;

retrieving data including weight and size associated with a plurality of parcels in said one of said categories;

analyzing said data for said plurality of parcels associated with said one of said categories to determine a mathematical relationship between weight and size; and

applying said mathematical relationship to calculate the size of said first parcel based on its weight.

23. The computer program product of claim 22 further comprising computer-executable instructions for:

retrieving a subset of said size data based on an origin and a destination;

calculating a cumulative size for said subset by combining the size data for each of said parcels in said subset; and

forecasting equipment requirements by applying a growth factor to said cumulative size.

24. The computer program product of claim 23, wherein said subset of size data includes the calculated size of said first parcel.