Method and apparatus for estimation of component gating and shortage risk in manufacturing operations

• US 7,536,311 B1
• Filed: 11/30/2005
• Issued: 05/19/2009
• Est. Priority Date: 08/31/2000
• Status: Expired due to Fees

• Current Assignee: Microsoft Technology Licensing LLC (Microsoft Corporation)
• Original Assignee: Rapt, Inc. (Microsoft Corporation)
• Inventors: Dagum, Paul, Kralik, Balazs, Goldbach, Michael
• Primary Examiner(s): Jeanty; Romain
• Application Number:
  US11/290,405
• Time in Patent Office: 1,266 Days
• Field of Search: 705/7
• US Class Current: 705/7.31
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/04 Forecasting or optimisation specially adapted for administrative or management purposes, e.g. linear programming or "cutting stock problem" market predictions or forecasting for commercial activities G06Q30/0202
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/0631 Resource planning, allocation, distributing or scheduling for enterprises or organisations
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06315 Needs-based resource requirements planning or analysis
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0201 Market modelling; Market analysis; Collecting market data
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0202 Market predictions or forecasting for commercial activities

Abstract

A method for estimation of component gating risk in manufacturing operations is disclosed. The method includes generating an altered component plan by altering a component plan for a component, computing a mean production value using the altered component plan, and computing the component gating risk using the mean production value.

Claims

1. A computer-implemented method performed with a computer having a processor and a memory for estimating component shortage risk of a component used to make products during a manufacturing process, the component shortage risk for use in placing orders for the component to help ensure that sufficient units of the component are available during the manufacturing of the products, comprising:

identifying the component used to make the products in the manufacturing process;

computing by the processor a probability of shortage for the component based on

statistical information regarding a demand for the products,

a maximum expeditable level of the component, and

connect rates that describe a consumption of the component for each unit of the products

wherein the probability of shortage is represented by the quantity r in the formula;

r=∫

_d^∞

N(x,a·

μ

,√

{square root over (a^TΣ

a)})dx,

wherein;

d is the maximum expeditable level of the component,

N(x,μ

,σ

) is a normal density function having a mean equal to μ and

a variance equal to σ

²,

a is a vector of the connect rates for the component, the connect rates describing a consumption of the component for each unit of the products,

μ

is a mean demand of the products, and

Σ

represents a demand covariance between demand of a first of the products and demand of a second of the products; and

generating an output based on at least the probability of shortage, the output representing the component shortage risk of the identified component for use in placing orders for the component to help ensure that sufficient units of the component are available during the manufacturing of the products.

2. The computer-implemented method of claim 1, wherein the computing comprises:

determining the maximum expeditable level of the component; and

determining the connect rates for the component.

3. The computer-implemented method of claim 2, wherein the computing further comprises:

determining the mean demand; and

determining the demand covariance.

4. The method of claim 1, wherein the generating the output comprises storing data on a computer readable medium.

5. A computer program product for use in estimating component shortage risk of a component used to make products during a manufacturing process, the component shortage risk for use in placing orders for the component to help ensure that sufficient units of the component are available during the manufacturing of the products, comprising:

a computer-readable medium;

instructions, stored on the computer-readable medium, executable on a computer system, and configured to cause the computer system to;

identify the component used to make the products in a manufacturing process;

compute a probability of shortage for the component based on at least;

statistical information regarding a demand for the products,

a maximum expeditable level of the component, and

connect rates that describe a consumption of the component for each unit of the products,

wherein the probability of shortage is represented by the quantity r in the formula;

r=∫

_d^∞

N(x,a·

μ

,√

{square root over (a^TΣ

a)})dx,

wherein;

d is the maximum expeditable level of the component,

N(x,μ

,σ

) is a normal density function having a mean equal to μ and

a variance equal to σ

²,

a is a vector of the connect rates for the component,

μ

is a mean demand of the products, and

Σ

represents a demand covariance between demand of a first of the products and demand of a second of the products; and

output the probability of shortage to represent the component shortage risk of the identified component for use in placing orders for the component to help ensure that sufficient units of the component are available during the manufacturing of the products.

6. The computer program product of claim 5, wherein the instructions are further configured to cause the computer system to:

determine the maximum expeditable level of the component; and

determine the connect rates for the component.

7. The computer program product of claim 6, wherein the instructions are further configured to cause the computer system to:

determine the mean demand; and

determine the demand covariance.

8. An apparatus with a processor and memory, the processor for executing instructions stored in the memory, the instructions for estimating component shortage risk of a component used to make products during a manufacturing process, the apparatus comprising:

means for using the processor and memory to identify the component used to make the products in a manufacturing process;

means for using the processor and memory to compute probability of shortage for the component based on at least;

statistical information regarding a demand for the products,

a maximum expeditable level of the component, and

connect rates that describe a consumption of the component for each unit of the products

wherein the probability of shortage is represented by the quantity r in the formula;

r=∫

_d^∞

N(x,a·

μ

,√

{square root over (a^TΣ

a)})dx,

wherein;

d is the maximum expeditable level of the component,

N(x,μ

,σ

) is a normal density function having a mean equal to μ and

a variance equal to σ

²,

a is a vector of the connect rates for the component,

μ

is a mean demand of the products, and

Σ

represents a demand covariance between demand of a first of the products and demand of a second of the products; and

means for using the processor and memory to generate an output based on at least the probability of shortage, the probability of shortage representing the component shortage risk of the identified component.

9. The apparatus of claim 8, wherein the means for using the processor and memory to compute comprises:

means for determining the maximum expeditable level of the component; and

means for determining the connect rates for the component.

10. The apparatus of claim 9, wherein the means for using the processor and memory to compute further comprises:

means for determining the mean demand; and

means for determining the demand covariance.