Method and apparatus for an incomplete information model of credit risk
First Claim
1. A computer implemented method for generating a term-structure of default probabilities, comprising the steps of:
- at least one computer determining a default process by performing the steps comprising;
determining a firm'"'"'s default barrier distribution from a plurality of risk factors comprising said firm'"'"'s value and an unobservable default barrier, said unobservable default barrier comprising an incomplete information model;
determining said firm'"'"'s conditional default probability over time using said default barrier distribution;
determining a pricing trend function using said conditional default probability where said pricing trend function estimates a probability of default of said firm; and
said at least one computer generating said term structure of default probabilities for said firm based on said pricing trend function.
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Abstract
A method and apparatus for developing a structural model of credit risk that incorporates the short-term uncertainty inherent in default events is disclosed. The model is based on the assumption of incomplete information, taking as premise that bond investors are not certain about the true level of a firm'"'"'s value that may trigger default. In addition, the coherent integration of structure and uncertainty is facilitated with compensators. Compensators form the infrastructure of a class of credit models that is broad enough to include traditional structural models, intensity-based models, and a great deal more. Several empirical examples are provided that compare default probabilities and credit yield spreads forecast by the incomplete information model to the output of a Black and Cox (1976) model. It is found that the incomplete information model reacts more quickly and, unlike traditional structural models, forecasts positive short-term credit spreads for firms that are in distress. It is also demonstrated that while the model is predicated on the surprise nature of default, it does not have conditional default rate.
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Citations
33 Claims
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1. A computer implemented method for generating a term-structure of default probabilities, comprising the steps of:
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at least one computer determining a default process by performing the steps comprising; determining a firm'"'"'s default barrier distribution from a plurality of risk factors comprising said firm'"'"'s value and an unobservable default barrier, said unobservable default barrier comprising an incomplete information model; determining said firm'"'"'s conditional default probability over time using said default barrier distribution; determining a pricing trend function using said conditional default probability where said pricing trend function estimates a probability of default of said firm; and said at least one computer generating said term structure of default probabilities for said firm based on said pricing trend function. - View Dependent Claims (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 22)
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12. A computer system for generating a term structure of default probabilities comprising:
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at least one computer memory having program code that when executed operates at least one computer to determine a default process by performing the steps comprising; determining a firm'"'"'s default barrier distribution from a plurality of risk factors comprising said firm'"'"'s value and an unobservable default barrier, said unobservable default barrier comprising an incomplete information model; determining said firm'"'"'s conditional default probability over time using said default barrier distribution; determining a pricing trend function using said conditional default probability, where said pricing trend function estimates a probability of default of said firm; and said at least one computer memory having program code that when executed operates said at least one computer to generate said term structure of default probabilities for said firm based on said pricing trend function. - View Dependent Claims (13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21)
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23. A computer program product comprising a computer useable medium having control logic stored therein for causing at least one computer to generate a term structure of default probabilities comprising:
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computer readable program code for causing said at least one computer to determine a default process by performing the steps comprising; determining a firm'"'"'s default barrier distribution from a plurality of risk factors comprising said firm'"'"'s value and an unobservable default barrier, said unobservable default barrier comprising an incomplete information model; determining said firm'"'"'s conditional default probability over time using said default barrier distribution; determining a pricing trend using said conditional default probability, where said pricing trend function estimates a probability of default of said firm; and computer readable program code for causing said at least one computer to generate said term structure of default probabilities for said firm based on said pricing trend function. - View Dependent Claims (24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33)
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Specification