Method and apparatus for estimating the refresh strategy or other refresh-influenced parameters of a system over its life cycle

• US 7,584,156 B2
• Filed: 05/15/2003
• Issued: 09/01/2009
• Est. Priority Date: 05/15/2002
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: Lockheed Martin Corporation (Martin Marietta Corporation)
• Original Assignee: Lockheed Martin Corporation (Martin Marietta Corporation)
• Inventors: Hertz, Michael T., Herald, Thomas E. Jr.
• Primary Examiner(s): Hayes; John W
• Assistant Examiner(s): NELSON, FREDA ANN
• Application Number:
  US10/440,032
• Publication Number:
  US 20040015452A1
• Time in Patent Office: 2,301 Days
• Field of Search: 705/1, 705 7- 8, 705/28, 705/10, 705/40, 705/400, 702/184
• US Class Current: 705/400
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06 Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06375 Prediction of business process outcome or impact based on a proposed change
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 20/102 Bill distribution or payments
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0283 Price estimation or determination

Abstract

A method for estimating the cost of a system over its predetermined life cycle includes estimating refresh and non-refresh costs for the system over its life cycle. By estimating the refresh cost, such a method allows one to select the most cost-effective implementation for the system by comparing the costs of different implementations. For example, if the system is to be installed in a submarine, one can select the most cost-effective system configuration for a given refresh rate, where the refresh rate coincides with the intervals at which the submarine is in port for service. Or, for a given system configuration, one can determine the most cost-effective refresh rate, and thus select the most cost-effective interval for servicing the submarine.

Claims

1. A method for determining a total cost of a system over a life cycle of the system, the method comprising:

calculating with a computer processor executing computer instructions a current price curve and a future price curve for a part of the system;

calculating with the computer processor executing computer instructions a total cost of the system based on the current and future price curves; and

outputting the calculated total cost of the system;

wherein calculating the current and the future price curves comprises calculating the current and future price curves from;

respective life cycles for currently available and future generations of the part;

a time between introduction of the currently available and future generations of the part;

a change in a functional capacity of the future generation of the part relative to the currently available generation of the part; and

a maturity of the currently available generation of the part.

2. The method of claim 1 wherein calculating the total cost of the system comprises:

calculating a respective periodic cost of the system for each of a plurality of predetermined period of the system'"'"'s life cycle; and

calculating the total cost of the system as a sum of all the respective periodic costs of the system.

3. The method of claim 1 wherein calculating the total cost of the system comprises:

calculating an initial acquisition cost of the system by using the current price curve to calculate a price of a currently available generation of the part at the time the system is to be acquired;

including the initial acquisition cost in a periodic cost of the system for an initial period of the system'"'"'s life cycle; and

including the periodic cost in the total cost.

4. A method for determining a total cost of a system over a life cycle of the system, the method comprising:

calculating with a computer processor executing computer instructions a current price curve and a future price curve for a part of the system;

calculating with the computer processor executing computer instructions a total cost of the system based on the current and future price curves; and

outputting the calculated total cost of the system;

wherein calculating the total cost of the system comprises;

selecting a refresh rate of a system life cycle for refreshing a currently installed generation of the part with a future generation;

calculating a potential post-refresh functional capacity of the system based on a functional capacity of the future generation of the part relative to a functional capacity of the currently installed generation; and

calculating a refresh cost for refreshing the currently installed generation of the part with the future generation based on a price of the currently installed generation and the potential post-refresh functional capacity of the system.

5. A method for determining a total cost of a system over a life cycle of the system, the method comprising:

calculating with a computer processor executing computer instructions a current price curve and a future price curve for a part of a system;

calculating with the computer processor executing computer instructions a total cost of the system based on the current and future price curves; and

outputting the calculated total cost of the system;

wherein calculating the total cost of the system comprises;

selecting a refresh rate of a system life cycle for refreshing a currently installed generation of the part with a future generation;

calculating a potential post-refresh functional capacity of the system based on a functional capacity of the future generation of the part relative to a functional capacity of an initially installed generation of the part and on an importance of the part to the system; and

calculating a refresh cost for refreshing the currently installed generation of the part with the future generation based on a cost of the initially installed generation and the potential post-refresh functional capacity of the system.

6. A method for determining a total cost of a system over a life cycle of the system, the method comprising:

calculating with a computer processor executing computer instructions a current price curve and a future price curve for a part of a system;

calculating with the computer processor executing computer instructions a total cost of the system based on the current and future price curves; and

outputting the calculated total cost of the system;

wherein calculating the total cost of the system comprises;

calculating a pre-refresh operation and support cost for the system as a function of a price of a currently installed generation of the part;

selecting a refresh period of a system life cycle for refreshing the currently installed generation of the part with a future generation;

calculating a potential post-refresh functional capacity of the system based on a functional capacity of the future generation of the part relative to a functional capacity of an initially installed generation of the part and on an importance of the part to the system;

calculating a refresh cost for refreshing the currently installed generation of the part with the future generation based on a cost of the initially installed generation of the part and the potential post-refresh functional capacity of the system;

calculating a capacity-independent portion of an operation and support cost for the refresh period as a function of a pre-refresh cost of all parts in the system; and

calculating a capacity-dependent portion of the operation and support cost for the refresh period as a function of the cost of the currently installed generation of the part and the functional capacity of the future generation of the part.

7. A method for determining a total cost of a system over a life cycle of the system, the method comprising:

calculating with a computer processor executing computer instructions a current price curve and a future price curve for a part of a system;

calculating with the computer processor executing computer instructions the total cost of the system based on the current and future price curves; and

outputting the calculated total cost of the system;

wherein calculating the total cost of the system comprises;

selecting a refresh period of a system life cycle for refreshing a currently installed generation of the part with a future generation;

calculating a potential post-refresh functional capacity of the system based on a functional capacity of the future generation of the part relative to a functional capacity of an initially installed generation of the part; and

calculating a refresh cost for refreshing the currently installed generation of the part with the future generation based on a price of the initially installed generation, the potential post-refresh functional capacity of the system, and a level of difficulty for refreshing the currently installed generation with the future generation.