Uncertainty management in a decision-making system
First Claim
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1. A computer implemented assisted decision-making system for constructing and evaluating a story of interest comprising:
- a plurality of decision algorithms, each decision algorithm quantifying at least one category of uncertainty associated with the story of interest as at least one uncertainty parameter, the plurality of decision algorithms comprising an information extraction component that reduces evidence sources into a desired format; and
an uncertainty management component that reconciles the uncertainty parameters from the plurality of decision algorithms as to produce a global uncertainty parameter for each of the plurality of uncertainty categories for the story of interest, and provides a unified uncertainty assessment by combining the global uncertainty parameters for each of the plurality of uncertainty categories for the story of interest.
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Abstract
Systems and methods are provided for constructing and evaluating a story of interest. The system includes a plurality of decision algorithms. Each decision algorithm is operative to quantify at least one category of uncertainty associated with the story of interest as a set of at least one uncertainty parameter. An uncertainty management component is operative to reconcile the sets of uncertainty parameters from the plurality of decision algorithms as to produce a global uncertainty parameter for each of the plurality of uncertainty categories for the story of interest.
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Citations
18 Claims
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1. A computer implemented assisted decision-making system for constructing and evaluating a story of interest comprising:
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a plurality of decision algorithms, each decision algorithm quantifying at least one category of uncertainty associated with the story of interest as at least one uncertainty parameter, the plurality of decision algorithms comprising an information extraction component that reduces evidence sources into a desired format; and an uncertainty management component that reconciles the uncertainty parameters from the plurality of decision algorithms as to produce a global uncertainty parameter for each of the plurality of uncertainty categories for the story of interest, and provides a unified uncertainty assessment by combining the global uncertainty parameters for each of the plurality of uncertainty categories for the story of interest. - View Dependent Claims (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11)
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12. A method for managing uncertainty in an assisted decision-making system:
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constructing a story of interest, the story of interest comprising a structured argument having a plurality of associated elements, at least one link associated with the plurality of elements, evidence supporting the plurality of hypotheses, and a plurality of evidence sources; searching an external database for at least one phrase associated with a given element associated with the story of interest; determining an uncertainty parameter that represents an uncertainty due to misunderstandings of the element based on the results of the search; evaluating at least two categories of uncertainty associated with the story of interest to produce respective global uncertainty parameters, wherein evaluating a first category of uncertainty comprises reconciling uncertainty parameters representing a plurality of hypotheses to provide a first global uncertainty parameter representing uncertainty due to misunderstood elements; and displaying the global uncertainty parameters to a decision-maker. - View Dependent Claims (13, 14, 15)
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16. A computer readable medium comprising:
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a plurality of decision algorithms, each decision algorithm quantifying at least one category of uncertainty associated with the story of interest as at least one uncertainty parameter, the plurality of decision algorithms comprising an information extraction component that reduces evidence sources into a desired format; and an uncertainty management component that reconciles the uncertainty parameters from the plurality of decision algorithms so as to produce a total uncertainty for each of the plurality of uncertainty categories for the story of interest and that combines the total uncertainty for each of the plurality of uncertainty categories for the story of interest to provide a unified uncertainty assessment. - View Dependent Claims (17, 18)
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Specification