Method of creating production plan of demand variation input type and method of creating production plan minimizing risk of demand variations

• US 7,660,730 B2
• Filed: 03/30/2005
• Issued: 02/09/2010
• Est. Priority Date: 03/31/2004
• Status: Expired due to Fees

• Current Assignee: Hitachi, Ltd.
• Original Assignee: Hitachi, Ltd.
• Inventors: Kaneko, Yuichi, Hosoda, Junko, Igarashi, Ken
• Primary Examiner(s): Bayat; Bradley B.
• Assistant Examiner(s): Singh; Gurkanwaljit
• Application Number:
  US11/092,855
• Publication Number:
  US 20050222888A1
• Time in Patent Office: 1,777 Days
• Field of Search: 705/8, 705/9, 705/10
• US Class Current: 705/7.25
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06315 Needs-based resource requirements planning or analysis
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/087 Inventory or stock management, e.g. order filling, procurement or balancing against orders
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0202 Market predictions or forecasting for commercial activities

Abstract

A production plan is created so as to minimize risk of demand variations. Forecasted values of amounts of requests are entered for each different item of products, markets, dates, past accuracy of demand forecasts, and order achievements at the time when the plan is created. Scenario information is created in which assumable amounts of request for each different item of the products, markets, and dates and probabilities at which the amounts of requests agree with actual amounts of requests are defined. Management indexes are found from the amount of stockout and amount of stock calculated in each different scenario, based on the scenario information, target values of the management indexes, and information on strongpoints. An amount of production that maximizes the achievement ratios of the management ratios to their targets within the ranges of supplied materials and within the range of the production capacity is calculated by an optimization algorithm.

Claims

1. A method of creating a production plan to minimize risk of demand variations, the method carried out by a computer and comprising:

receiving strongpoint information including characteristics of manufacturing plants and parts vendors and supply routes for materials and manufactured products, and storing the strongpoint information in a first database;

receiving and storing, in a second database;

information about demand forecasting and orders received for each different item of products, markets, and dates, and past demand forecast accuracy information which is defined by comparing the past forecasted amounts of demand with actual amounts of requirement;

receiving and storing, in a third database;

information about a product life cycle that is a forecasted value of a transition of a volume of sale after a date of start of sale of products, information about division of the product life cycle specifying ranges obtained by dividing the product life cycle into plural ranges along a time axis, and information about ranges of the product life cycle include a range of tilt of the product life cycle, an algorithm used to calculate an amount of production, and target values of management indices for each item of products, markets, and ranges of the product life cycle;

receiving a past actual volume of sale and forecasted values of amounts of request of a product planned to be manufactured for each different item of markets and dates, and past demand forecast accuracy information from the second database, and information about ranges of the product life cycle of products similar to the product planned to be manufactured from the third database;

calculating a tilt of a sales achievement for a specified period from the past to the future, based on the past actual volume of sale and the forecasted values of volume of request of the product planned to be manufactured, for each different item of markets and dates, and determining the range of the product life cycle having a range of tilt of the product life cycle containing the calculated tilt of the sales achievement for a specified period from the past to the future, that corresponds to the region to which the sale achievements belong;

executing, by the computer, a program of a first method of creating a production plan, wherein the range of the product life cycle of the product planned to be manufactured is based on an unstable region of the product life cycle, or the program of a second method of creating a production plan that creates the volume of production by adding a safety stock quantity to a uniquely defined volume of request, wherein the range of the product life cycle of the product planned to be manufactured is based on an unstable region of the product life cycle;

wherein the program of the first method of creating a production plan is executed;

creating, by the computer, a plurality of scenario information in which the past demand forecast accuracy information is utilized regarding a probability of occurrence of the forecasted values of volume of request of the product planned to be manufactured for each different item of markets and dates, further probabilities of occurrence are assigned to volume of requests each of which is obtained by adding or subtracting a volume of error to or from the forecasted values of volume of request of the product planned to be manufactured, and the sum of all the probabilities of occurrence is 100%, so that at least in one scenario, the number of required products resulting in an out of stock is assumed, in another scenario, the number of required products resulting in a stock is assumed;

creating one production plan to minimize risk of demand variations as an initial solution, calculating the difference between the amount of production in the created plan and the amount of request, calculating expected values of the amount of stock and amount of stockout for each scenario, and determining values of management indexes, based on the plurality of scenario information, the strongpoint information received from the first database, and the target values of the management indexes, the strongpoint information including characteristics of manufacturing plants and parts vendors and supply routes for materials and manufactured products, where the management indexes correspond to the first method of creating a production plan; and

determining for an improved production plan minimizing risk of demand variations in which the values of the management indexes are further improved, by varying the present production plan, and simultational calculations, and calculating the production plan that maximizes achievement ratios of the values of the management indexes to their targets within ranges of amounts of supplied materials and range of production capacity received from the first database.

2. A method of creating a production plan as set forth in claim 1,

wherein the volume of stockout and the volume of stock are calculated in each different scenario for each different item of the products, markets, and dates,

wherein the volume of stockout and the volume of stock in each different scenario are multiplied by said probabilities of occurrence and the resulting products are summed up for all the scenarios to calculate a volume of stockout and an volume of stock for the production plan, and

wherein said values of the management indexes are calculated, using the calculated volume of stockout and volume of stock for the production plan.

3. A method of creating a production plan as set forth in claim 1, wherein the ranges obtained by dividing the product life cycle into the plural ranges along a time axis, are partitioned at locations where the tilt varies.