Forecasting search queries based on time dependencies
First Claim
1. A method in a computing device for forecasting frequency of a query, the frequency of the query being a number of times the query is submitted to a search engine during an interval, the method comprising:
- determining whether the query is time-dependent or time-independent by analyzing frequencies of the query during past intervals;
when it is determined that the query is time-dependent,generating a time-dependent query model to predict the frequency of the query at a future interval, the time-dependent model being derived from the frequency of the query during the past intervals;
generating a predicted frequency for the query during a future interval using the generated time-dependent query model; and
storing an indication of the predicted frequency generated using the time-dependent query model; and
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when it is determined that the query is time-independent,generating a time-independent query model to predict the frequency of the query at a future interval, the time-independent model being derived from the frequency of the query and the frequency of another query during the past intervals; and
generating a predicted frequency of the query during a future interval using the generated time-independent query model; and
storing an indication of the predicted frequency generated using the time-independent query model.
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Accused Products
Abstract
Techniques for analyzing and modeling the frequency of queries are provided by a query analysis system. A query analysis system analyzes frequencies of a query over time to determine whether the query is time-dependent or time-independent. The query analysis system forecasts the frequency of time-dependent queries based on their periodicities. The query analysis system forecasts the frequency of time-independent queries based on causal relationships with other queries. To forecast the frequency of time-independent queries, the query analysis system analyzes the frequency of a query over time to identify significant increases in the frequency, which are referred to as “query events” or “events.” The query analysis system forecasts frequencies of time-independent queries based on queries with events that tend to causally precede events of the query to be forecasted.
51 Citations
17 Claims
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1. A method in a computing device for forecasting frequency of a query, the frequency of the query being a number of times the query is submitted to a search engine during an interval, the method comprising:
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determining whether the query is time-dependent or time-independent by analyzing frequencies of the query during past intervals; when it is determined that the query is time-dependent, generating a time-dependent query model to predict the frequency of the query at a future interval, the time-dependent model being derived from the frequency of the query during the past intervals; generating a predicted frequency for the query during a future interval using the generated time-dependent query model; and storing an indication of the predicted frequency generated using the time-dependent query model; and
;when it is determined that the query is time-independent, generating a time-independent query model to predict the frequency of the query at a future interval, the time-independent model being derived from the frequency of the query and the frequency of another query during the past intervals; and generating a predicted frequency of the query during a future interval using the generated time-independent query model; and storing an indication of the predicted frequency generated using the time-independent query model. - View Dependent Claims (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8)
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9. A computer-readable storage medium encoded with instructions for controlling a computing device to forecast frequency of queries, the frequency of a query being a number of times the query is submitted during an interval, by a method comprising:
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for time-dependent queries, generating a time-dependent query model for the query to predict the frequency of the query at a future interval by analyzing internal factors of the query, the internal factors being derived from the frequency of the query during past intervals; for time-independent queries, generating a time-independent query model for the query to predict the frequency of the query at a future interval by analyzing both internal and external factors of the query, the external factors being derived from the frequency of another query during past intervals, wherein the generating of the time-independent query model includes identifying queries that are causally related to the query and the time-independent query model predicts frequency of the query based on the frequency of the causally related queries; predicting a frequency of a query during a future interval using the query model generated for the query; and displaying a graph of frequency of a query over time, the graph including an indication of the predicted frequency for the query. - View Dependent Claims (10, 11, 12, 13)
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14. A computing device for forecasting frequency of queries, the frequency of a query being a number of times the query is submitted during an interval, comprising:
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a query frequency store storing frequencies of queries at intervals; a memory storing computer-executable instructions of a component that determines whether a query is time-dependent or time-independent based on analysis of the frequencies of that query during past intervals such that a query with a periodicity of its frequencies is a time-dependent query and query without a periodicity of its frequencies is time-independent; a component that generates a time-dependent query model for a query to predict the frequency of a time-dependent query at a future interval based on periodicity of the query derived from the frequency of the query during past intervals; a component that generates a time-independent query model for a query to predict the frequency of a time-independent query at a future interval based on analysis of causal relationships of the frequencies of the query and frequencies of the other queries derived from the frequencies of the queries during past intervals; a component the predicts the frequencies of a query during a future interval using its generated query model; and a component that displays a graph of frequency of a query at intervals, the graph including an interval with a predicted frequency; and a processor for executing the computer-executable instructions stored in the memory. - View Dependent Claims (15, 16, 17)
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Specification