Web-based risk management tool and method

• US 7,698,148 B2
• Filed: 09/12/2003
• Issued: 04/13/2010
• Est. Priority Date: 09/12/2003
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: Raytheon Company (Rtx Corporation)
• Original Assignee: Raytheon Company (Rtx Corporation)
• Inventors: Bosse, Mathew H., Soto, Jose, Michel, John F., Lavu, Ranapratap, Garbarino, Niccolo, Peyton, Michael P.
• Primary Examiner(s): Weiss; John G
• Assistant Examiner(s): Thompson; Michael M
• Application Number:
  US10/661,756
• Publication Number:
  US 20050060213A1
• Time in Patent Office: 2,405 Days
• Field of Search: 705/1, 705 7- 10, 702176-179, 702/181, 702/187
• US Class Current: 705/1.1
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/0635 Risk analysis of enterprise or organisation activities
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/10 Office automation; Time management
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0282 Rating or review of business operators or products
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0283 Price estimation or determination
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 99/00 Subject matter not provided for in other groups of this subclass

Abstract

The present invention provides a risk management tool and method for creating an improved initial risk management process that captures, assesses, and prioritizes risks and implements mitigation plans to more effectively manage risk in large-scale development projects. A web-based system allows users and management to share and access risk information to more readily identify and assess risks, develop mitigation plans and track the risk management process. The tool and specifically the Pf and Cf tables are tailored to each project to more accurately calculate and prioritize risk factors RF and thus anticipate and minimize or eliminate risks before they occur. The demonstrated value of the tool is found in timely deliveries and a reduction of cost overruns as well as an increase in customer enhanced award fees.

Claims

1. A method of managing risk related to a successful completion of a development project, comprising:

storing a probability of occurrence (Pf) table, a severity of consequence (Cf) table, and identified risks in a shared risk database, said Pf table having a plurality of risk categories for the development project, each said category having a plurality of table entries corresponding to different numeric Pf ratings, each entry including a standardized qualitative probability definition associated with the Pf rating wherein the standardized quality probability definition is specific to each category;

providing a risk management tool implemented on a computer, said tool

providing an interface to formulate an enterprise search of the risk database and performing the search to identify at least one risk;

for each identified risk, displaying the Pf table to prompt a user to select the one or more risk categories and for each said selected category to select the qualitative probability definition that characterizes the risk thereby specifying a probability of occurrence Pf for each said selected risk category for said at least one risk; and

for each identified risk, displaying the Cf table to prompt the user to select at least one severity of consequence Cf, said tool combining the selected Pf and Cf to calculate a risk factor Rf for each identified risk;

formulating a risk mitigation plan including at least one mitigation activity for said at least one risk, said tool calculating an associated risk exposure for said risk mitigation plan based on the probability of occurrence Pf and severity of consequence Cf for said at least one risk;

performing the at least one mitigation activity for said at least one risk to implement the risk mitigation plan;

as the risk mitigation plan is implemented over time, said tool displaying the Pf and Cf tables to prompt a user to reassess the at least one risk and select Pf and Cf, said tool updating the prioritized risk factor Rf;

said tool recalculating the risk exposure for the updated risk factors and displaying a chart of the risk exposure versus time as mitigation activities are performed and risk factors updated; and

adjusting the mitigation plan based on the risk exposure.

2. The method of claim 1, wherein the severity of consequence table has cost and schedule impact categories, each said category having a plurality of table entries, each entry including a standardized qualitative impact definition and a project-specific amount associated with a Cf rating, said tool displaying the severity of consequence table to prompt users to view the cost and schedule impact categories and the standardized qualitative impact definitions for each said at least one risk and to select the Cf rating, said tool calculating and displaying the displayed risk exposure including a cost exposure and a schedule exposure that are based on the project-specific amounts associated with the selected Cf rating.

3. The method of claim 2, wherein the table entries in the schedule impact category specify a project-specific amount in days, weeks or months and the table entries in the cost impact category include multiple sub-categories of project-specific cost impacts in actual dollars for the development project, said tool prompting the user to select a Cf rating for each said sub-category, said tool calculating and displaying the schedule exposure and cost exposure for all risks.

4. The method of claim 3, further comprising a user having administrative access not provided to said plurality of users, said tool first prompting the user to tailor the severity of consequence table to select the cost impact sub-categories and specify their dollar amounts and to specify the schedule impact in days, weeks or months for the current development project, said tool storing the tailored probability of occurrence table on the shared risk database with access to said plurality of users.

5. The method of claim 2, wherein said multiple sub-categories include development cost (NRE), unit cost (DTC) and operations and support (O/S) categories, said tool calculating and displaying the cost exposure for NRE, DTC and O/S.

6. The method of claim 5, wherein the user selects a Cf rating for each of the NRE, DTC and O/S cost impact sub-categories, said tool uses the respective CF ratings used to determine the displayed cost exposure for the different sub-categories.

7. The method of claim 2, wherein the user selects a Cf rating for each of the cost and schedule impact categories, said tool using the respective Cf ratings used to determine the displayed cost exposures and schedule exposure.

8. The method of claim 7, wherein the tool calculates the product of the maximum Cf rating with the maximum Pf to define the prioritized risk factor Rf.

9. The method of claim 1, further comprising a user having administrative access not provided to a plurality of users, said tool prompting the user to first tailor the probability of occurrence table to select a reduced number of categories that are relevant to the current development project, said tool storing the tailored probability of occurrence table on the shared risk database with access to said plurality of users.

10. The method of claim 1, wherein the enterprise search includes a combination of at least two parameters including current or historic, risk factor, vendor, component, functional area, category, key work in risk title, key work in risk description, IPT, actionee, actionee/team lead/submitter or risk number.

11. The method of claim 10, wherein the enterprise search results list at least one risk including a combination of risk number, program, risk title and a current risk factor.

12. The method of claim 1, wherein existing risk mitigation plans including one or more mitigation activities for different risks are stored in the shared database, the formulation of the risk mitigation plan comprising:

said tool prompting a user to formulate a mitigation search of the risk database and performing the search to identify existing risk mitigation plans for the identified risk;

said tool prompting a user to formulate a new risk mitigation plan that'"'"'s builds upon the one or more existing risk mitigation plans; and

said tool storing the new risk mitigation plan on the shared database.

13. The method of claim 12, wherein the tool provides a transfer link from said at least one risk with its risk mitigation plan to import the selected risk and mitigation plan into another program.

14. The method of claim 12, wherein the mitigation search performed by the tool includes a combination of at least two parameters including a risk description, risk status, start date, original planned complete date, planned complete date and complete date.

15. The method of claim 12, further including said tool automatically generating risk reports including identified risks, prioritized risk factors and mitigation plans.

16. The method of claim 12, wherein the tool supports a web browser having an interface that includes a menu bar with pull-down menu items and menu sub-items for viewing the current program, conducting the enterprise search and conducting the mitigation search and hyperlinks to the Pf and Cf tables.

17. The method of claim 12, wherein the tool identifies both successful and unsuccessful existing risk mitigation plans.

18. The method of claim 12, further comprising:

said tool aggregating the risk mitigation plans from a plurality of different users and different programs to update and store a risk mitigation plan on the shared database.

19. The method of claim 12, further comprising:

sharing resources with other programs to implement the mitigation plan.

20. The method of claim 12, where the risk mitigation plan includes a number of activities, each activity including a description and an assigned Pf and Cf rating.

21. The method of claim 1, wherein the tool calculates the risk exposure as the sum of severity of consequence associated with the Cf rating multiplied by the probability Pf for each said risk.

22. The method of claim 1, wherein the Cf table includes cost and schedule impact categories each having a plurality of table entries, each entry including a standardized qualitative impact definition and an amount associated with a CF rating, for each identified risk the tool prompts the user to select both a cost and a schedule Cf rating, for each identified said tool combining the maximum Cf rating with the maximum Pf for the one or more risk categories to define the prioritized risk factor Rf.

23. A web-based risk management system for managing risk related to a successful completion of a development project, comprising:

a server comprising a shared risk database that stores a probability of occurrence (Pf) table, a severity of consequence (Cf) table, risk identification information and risk mitigation information in a shared risk database, said Pf table having a plurality of risk categories for the development project, each said risk category having a plurality of table entries corresponding to different numeric Pf ratings, each entry including a standardized qualitative probability definition associated with the Pf rating wherein the standardized quality probability definition is specific to each category;

a web-based risk management tool on the server that provides standardized interfaces for searching, viewing and entering information to and from the shared risk data base via a web browser;

a communications network; and

a plurality of computer workstations in communication with the server via the communications network, each said workstation provided with a web browser to search the database using the standardized interfaces, said tool identifying risks and risk categories for each identified risk, said tool displaying the Pf and Cf tables to prompt a user to select an entry and its Pf rating from the Pf table for each risk category and an entry and its Cf rating from the Cf table and said tool calculating a risk factor Rf for each risk based on the Pf and Cf ratings.

24. The system of claim 23, wherein existing risk mitigation plans including mitigation activities for different risks are stored in the shared database, said tool via said web browser provides an interface for the user to formulate and perform a mitigation search of the risk database to identify existing risk mitigation plans for the identified risk, formulate a new risk mitigation plan that builds upon the one or more existing risk mitigation plans, store the new risk mitigation plan on the shared database, said tool calculating an associated risk exposure for all identified risks based on the Pf and Cf ratings, displaying a chart of risk exposure over time and facilitating adjustments to the mitigation plan based on the risk exposure.

25. The system of claim 24, wherein the tool'"'"'s standardized interface includes a menu bar with pull-down menu items and menu sub-items to view the current programs, to view program risks, to conduct an enterprise search to identify risks and to formulate the risk mitigation search to identify mitigation plans and hyperlinks to the Pf and Cf tables.

26. The system of claim 24, wherein the workstation via the web browser submits an enterprise search that includes a combination of at least two parameters including current or historic, risk factor, vendor, component, functional area, category, key word in risk title, key word in risk description, IPT, actionee, actionee/team lead/submitter or risk number and the server returns via the web browser an enterprise search results list including for at least one risk a combination of risk number, program, risk title, a current risk factor and its risk mitigation plan.

27. The system of claim 24, wherein the workstation via the web browser submits a mitigation search that includes a combination of at least two parameters including a risk description, risk status, start date, original planned complete date, planned complete date and complete date and the server returns existing mitigation plans that satisfy the search parameters.

28. The system of claim 24, wherein the mitigation search identifies both successful and unsuccessful existing risk mitigation plans.

29. The system of claim 24, wherein the web browser facilitates sharing resources with other programs to implement the mitigation plan.

30. The system of claim 23, wherein the Cf table has a schedule impact category with table entries, each entry including a standardized qualitative impact definition and a project-specific schedule impact amount in days, weeks or months and having a cost impact category with table entries, each entry including a standardized qualitative impact definition and project-specific cost impact amounts for multiple sub-categories of cost impacts in actual dollars for the development project, said web browser providing administrative access to at least one user to tailor using said tool the Pf table to have fewer categories that are relevant to the current project and the Cf table to specify the amounts in days, weeks or months of the table entries in the schedule impact category and the amounts in actual dollars for the multiple sub-categories in the cost impact category, said tool prompting via the web-browser a user to select Cf ratings for each of the schedule impact and the multiple sub-categories of cost impacts, said risk management tool computing and displaying a schedule exposure based on Pf and the Cf rating for schedule impact and a cost exposure for each sub-category based on Pf and the Cf rating for each said sub-category.

31. The system of claim 23, wherein the severity of consequence (Cf) table includes cost and schedule impact categories each having a plurality of table entries, each entry including a standardized qualitative impact definition and a project-specific amount associated with a Cf rating, said tool prompting the user to select both a cost and schedule CF rating and calculating the risk factor RF as the product of the highest selected Pf and the highest selected Cf for each identified risk.

32. A web-based risk management system for managing risk related to a successful completion of a development project, comprising:

a server comprising a shared risk database that stores a probability of occurrence (Pf) table, a severity of consequence (Cf) table, risk identification information and risk mitigation information, said Pf table having a plurality of risk categories for the development project, each said risk category having a plurality of table entries corresponding to different numeric Pf ratings, each entry including a standardized qualitative probability definition associated with a Pf rating wherein the standardized quality probability definition is specific to each category, said Cf table having cost and schedule impact categories each having a plurality of table entries, each entry including a standardized qualitative impact definition and a project-specific amount associated with a Cf rating;

a web-based risk management tool on the server that provides standardized interfaces for searching, viewing and entering information to and from the shared risk data base via a web browser;

a communications network; and

a plurality of computer workstations in communication with the server via the communications network, each said workstation provided with a web browser configured to search the database using the standardized interfaces, said tool identifying risks and risk categories for each identified risk, said tool displaying the Pf and Cf tables to prompt a user to select a Pf rating for each risk category and cost and schedule Cf ratings, said tool calculating a risk factor Rf as the product of the highest selected Pf rating and the highest selected Cf for each risk, said tool executing a mitigation search to formulate a risk mitigation plan including at least one mitigation activity for said at least one risk, said tool calculating an associated cost exposure and schedule exposure for the identified risks based on the Pf and Cf ratings,

as the risk mitigation plan is implemented over time, said tool via the web-browser displaying a chart of the cost exposure and schedule exposure over time, displaying the Pf and Cf tables to prompt a user to reassess the at least one risk and select Pf and Cf to update the prioritized risk factors Rf and adjust the mitigation activities based on the cost or schedule exposure.

33. The system of claim 32, wherein the cost impact category includes multiple sub-categories each having a project-specific amount, each said sub-category being assigned its own Cf ratings, said tool using the respective CF ratings to determine the displayed cost exposure for the different sub-categories.

34. The system of claim 33, wherein the sub-categories include development cost (NRE), unit cost (DTC) and operations and support (O/S).