System and method for determining expected unserved energy to quantify generation reliability risks
First Claim
1. A method for quantifying an expected unserved energy in an energy generation system, wherein all steps are performed by a computer, comprising:
- generating an energy load demand forecast based at least in part on a weather year model stored in a memory of the computing system;
committing a plurality of energy generation resources to meet the energy load demand;
determining an operating status for each committed energy generation resource in the energy generation system;
determining if the committed resources are sufficient to meet the energy load demand;
selecting a dispatch order for a plurality of additional energy resources if the committed resources are not sufficient to meet the energy load demand, wherein the plurality of energy resources includes a plurality of steam units, a plurality of pumped storage hydro units, a plurality of combustion turbine units, a plurality of combined cycle units, a plurality of emergency hydro resources, a market purchase of energy and a plurality of curtailable contracts;
dispatching the plurality of curtailable contracts in a descending order based on an elapsed time since a previous curtailment for each contract such that the contract having a longest elapsed time is curtailed first providing an even distribution of energy load shedding among a plurality of customers having curtailable contracts;
committing additional resources based on the selected dispatch order until the energy load demand is met; and
determining the expected unserved energy and shedding an equivalent amount of energy load demand based at least in part on an expected duration of unserved energy and a customer class grouping.
1 Assignment
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Accused Products
Abstract
A method, system and program product for quantifying a risk of an expected unserved energy in an energy generation system using a digital simulation. An energy load demand forecast is generated based at least in part on a weather year model. A plurality of energy generation resources are committed to meet the energy load demand. An operating status is determined for each committed energy generation resource in the energy generation system. A determination is made as to whether or not the committed resources are sufficient to meet the energy load demand. A dispatch order for a plurality of additional energy resources is selected if the committed resources are not sufficient to meet the energy load demand. Additional resources are committed based on the selected dispatch order until the energy load demand is met. The expected unserved energy is determined and an equivalent amount of energy load demand is shed based at least in part on an expected duration of unserved energy and a customer class grouping. An associated cost for the expected unserved energy is also determined.
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Citations
44 Claims
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1. A method for quantifying an expected unserved energy in an energy generation system, wherein all steps are performed by a computer, comprising:
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generating an energy load demand forecast based at least in part on a weather year model stored in a memory of the computing system; committing a plurality of energy generation resources to meet the energy load demand; determining an operating status for each committed energy generation resource in the energy generation system; determining if the committed resources are sufficient to meet the energy load demand; selecting a dispatch order for a plurality of additional energy resources if the committed resources are not sufficient to meet the energy load demand, wherein the plurality of energy resources includes a plurality of steam units, a plurality of pumped storage hydro units, a plurality of combustion turbine units, a plurality of combined cycle units, a plurality of emergency hydro resources, a market purchase of energy and a plurality of curtailable contracts; dispatching the plurality of curtailable contracts in a descending order based on an elapsed time since a previous curtailment for each contract such that the contract having a longest elapsed time is curtailed first providing an even distribution of energy load shedding among a plurality of customers having curtailable contracts; committing additional resources based on the selected dispatch order until the energy load demand is met; and determining the expected unserved energy and shedding an equivalent amount of energy load demand based at least in part on an expected duration of unserved energy and a customer class grouping. - View Dependent Claims (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16)
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17. A computer readable storage medium having a plurality of computer readable instructions encoded therein, which when executed by a computer causes the computer to implement a method for quantifying an expected unserved energy in an energy generation system, comprising:
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generating an energy load demand forecast based at least in part on a weather year model stored in a memory of the computing system; committing a plurality of energy generation resources to meet the energy load demand; determining an operating status for each committed energy generation resource in the energy generation system; determining if the committed resources are sufficient to meet the energy load demand; selecting a dispatch order for a plurality of additional energy resources if the committed resources are not sufficient to meet the energy load demand, wherein the plurality of energy resources includes a plurality of steam units, a plurality of pumped storage hydro units, a plurality of combustion turbine units, a plurality of combined cycle units, a plurality of emergency hydro resources, a market purchase of energy and a plurality of curtailable contracts; dispatching the plurality of curtailable contracts in a descending order based on an elapsed time since a previous curtailment for each contract such that the contract having a longest elapsed time is curtailed first providing an even distribution of energy load shedding among a plurality of customers having curtailable contracts; committing additional resources based on the selected dispatch order until the energy load demand is met; and determining the expected unserved energy and shedding an equivalent amount of energy load demand based at least in part on an expected duration of unserved energy and a customer class grouping. - View Dependent Claims (18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32)
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33. A system for quantifying an expected unserved energy in an energy generation system, comprising:
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a memory for storing a plurality of energy load demand data and a plurality of weather data; a computer processor in communication with the memory and configured for; generating an energy load demand forecast based on the energy load demand data and weather data stored in the memory; committing a plurality of energy generation resources to meet the energy load demand; determining an operating status for each committed energy generation resource in the energy generation system; determining if the committed resources are sufficient to meet the energy load demand; selecting a dispatch order for a plurality of additional energy resources if the committed resources are not sufficient to meet the energy load demand, wherein the plurality of energy resources includes a plurality of steam units, a plurality of pumped storage hydro units, a plurality of combustion turbine units, a plurality of combined cycle units, a plurality of emergency hydro resources, a market purchase of energy and a plurality of curtailable contracts; dispatching the plurality of curtailable contracts in a descending order based on an elapsed time since a previous curtailment for each contract such that the contract having a longest elapsed time is curtailed first providing an even distribution of energy load shedding among a plurality of customers having curtailable contracts; committing additional resources based on the selected dispatch order until the energy load demand is met; and determining the expected unserved energy and shedding an equivalent amount of energy load demand based at least in part on an expected duration of unserved energy and a customer class grouping. - View Dependent Claims (34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40, 41, 42, 43, 44)
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Specification