Real-time predictive computer program, model, and method

• US 7,707,130 B2
• Filed: 02/26/2007
• Issued: 04/27/2010
• Est. Priority Date: 10/23/2006
• Status: Expired due to Fees

• Current Assignee: Health Care Information Services, LLC
• Original Assignee: Health Care Information Services, LLC
• Inventors: McDannald, Eugene Russell Jr., Kelly, Bruce
• Primary Examiner(s): Holmes; Michael B
• Application Number:
  US11/678,884
• Publication Number:
  US 20080097943A1
• Time in Patent Office: 1,156 Days
• Field of Search: 706/21
• US Class Current: 706/21
• CPC Class Codes: G06N 3/08 Learning methods
• CPC Class Codes: G16H 50/20 for computer-aided diagnosis, e.g. based on medical expert systems
• CPC Class Codes: G16Z 99/00 Subject matter not provided for in other main groups of this subclass

Abstract

A method for predicting a future occurrence of an event involves obtaining a history of prior occurrences of the event. A plurality of variables is created that are associated with the event. Weights are assigned to each variable. An artificial neural network is accessed and trained with the history of past occurrences of the event by comparing an output of the artificial neural network to the past occurrence of the event. The weights are adjusted until the output corresponds to the past occurrence of the event.

Claims

1. A method of predicting a future occurrence of an event, the method comprising the steps of:

obtaining a history of past occurrences of the event;

creating a plurality of variables associated with the event, including a geographic location of the event;

assigning a weight to each variable;

creating an artificial neural network; and

training the artificial neural network with the history of past occurrences of the event to predict the future occurrence of the event, including the steps—

applying the variables, including the geographic location of the event, to the artificial neural network for each past occurrence of the event,

comparing an output of the network with each past occurrence of the event, and

adjusting the weights of the variables such that the output of the network corresponds to each past occurrence of the event.

2. The method of claim 1, wherein the event is selected from the group consisting of worker'"'"'s compensation injuries and acute medical situations.

3. The method of claim 1, wherein the variables further include environmental conditions during the event.

4. The method of claim 1, wherein the variables further include ages of entities involved with the event.

5. The method of claim 1, wherein the variables further include sizes of entities involved with the event.

6. The method of claim 1, wherein the variables further include shapes of entities involved with the event.

7. The method of claim 1, wherein the variables further include the physical condition of entities involved with the event.

8. The method of claim 1, wherein the variables further include quantities of entities involved with the event.

9. The method of claim 1, wherein the variables further include costs associated with the event.

10. The method of claim 1, wherein the variables further include measurable properties associated with the event.

11. A method of predicting a future occurrence of an event, the method comprising the steps of:

obtaining a history of past occurrences of the event;

creating a plurality of variables associated with the event, the variables including;

a geographic location of the event,

environmental conditions during the event,

ages of entities involved with the event,

sizes of entities involved with the event,

shapes of entities involved with the event,

physical condition of entities involved with the event,

quantities of entities involved with the event,

costs associated with the event, and

measurable properties of entities involved with the event;

assigning a weight to each variable;

creating an artificial neural network; and

training the artificial neural network with the history of past occurrences of the event to predict the future occurrence of the event, including the steps;

applying the variables, including the geographic location of the event, environmental conditions during the event, ages of entities involved with the event, sizes of entities involved with the event, shapes of entities involved with the event, physical condition of entities involved with the event, quantities of entities involved with the event, costs associated with the event, and measurable properties of entities involved with the event, to the artificial neural network for each past occurrence of the event,

comparing an output of the network with each past occurrence of the event, and

adjusting the weights of the variables such that the output of the network corresponds to each past occurrence of the event.