Systems and methods for analyzing data

• US 7,711,636 B2
• Filed: 09/27/2006
• Issued: 05/04/2010
• Est. Priority Date: 03/10/2006
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: Experian Information Solutions Incorporated (Experian plc)
• Original Assignee: Experian Information Solutions Incorporated (Experian plc)
• Inventors: Wang, Chien-Wei, Robida, Chuck
• Primary Examiner(s): Dass; Harish T.
• Application Number:
  US11/535,907
• Publication Number:
  US 20070214076A1
• Time in Patent Office: 1,315 Days
• Field of Search: 705/35, 705 36- 39, 705/7, 364/408, 706/46, 706/21
• US Class Current: 705/38
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 20/10 specially adapted for electronic funds transfer [EFT] systems; specially adapted for home banking systems
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0204 Market segmentation
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/00 Finance; Insurance; Tax strategies; Processing of corporate or income taxes
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/02 Banking, e.g. interest calculation or account maintenance credit or loans G06Q40/03
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/03 Credit; Loans; Processing thereof
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/04 Trading; Exchange, e.g. stocks, commodities, derivatives or currency exchange
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/06 Asset management; Financial planning or analysis
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/08 Insurance

Abstract

Information regarding individuals that fit a bad performance definition, such as individuals that have previously defaulted on a financial instrument or have declared bankruptcy, is used to develop a model that is usable to determine whether an individual that does not fit the bad performance definition is more likely to subsequently default on a financial instrument or to declare bankruptcy. The model may be used to generate a score for each individual, and the score may be used to segment the individual into a segment of a segmentation structure that includes individuals with related scores, where segments may include different models for generating a final risk score for the individuals assigned to the particular segments. Thus, the segment to which an individual is assigned, which may be determined based at least partly on the score assigned to the individual, may affect the final risk score that is assigned to the individual.

Claims

1. A computerized method of generating a default/bankruptcy model for assigning an individual to particular segments of a segmentation structure and for generating a final risk score for the individual, wherein the default/bankruptcy model may be applied to the individual'"'"'s financial and demographic information to determine the individual'"'"'s propensity to either default on one or more financial instruments or file for bankruptcy, the method comprising:

receiving from one or more data sources observation data comprising financial and demographic information regarding a plurality of individuals, the observation data indicating characteristics of the individuals at an observation time;

storing the observation data in a computer memory or a mass storage device;

receiving from one or more data sources outcome data comprising financial and demographic information regarding a plurality of individuals fitting a bad performance definition, wherein the outcome data comprises financial and demographic information associated with a time period beginning after the observation time;

storing the outcome data in a computer memory or a mass storage device;

generating by computer a bankruptcy/default model based on a comparison of the observation data and the outcome data, wherein the bankruptcy/default model is configured for application to financial and demographic data of an individual to determine to which of a plurality of segments in a segmentation structure a particular individual should be assigned;

storing the bankruptcy/default model in a computer memory or a mass storage device;

applying the default/bankruptcy model to a particular individual'"'"'s financial and demographic information to determine a propensity of the particular individual to either default on one or more financial instruments or file for bankruptcy;

in response to the determined propensity indicating that the particular individual is more likely to file for bankruptcy than to default on one or more financial instruments,

assigning the particular individual to a first segment of the segmentation structure; and

applying a first risk score model to the particular individual'"'"'s financial and demographic information to determine a final risk score of the particular individual; and

in response to the determined propensity indicating that the particular individual is more likely to default on one or more financial instruments than to file for bankruptcy,

assigning the particular individual to a second segment of the segmentation structure; and

applying a second risk score model to the particular individual'"'"'s financial and demographic information to determine a final risk score of the particular individual.

2. The method of claim 1, wherein the bad performance definition comprises individuals with at least one financial account that has previously had a ninety day past due status and individuals that have previously filed for bankruptcy.

3. The method of claim 1, wherein the outcome period is 24 months.

4. The method of claim 1, further comprising determining a bankruptcy/default score for the particular individual using the bankruptcy/default model.

5. The method of claim 4, wherein the segmentation structure comprises at least two hierarchal levels of segments.

6. The method of claim 4, wherein the segmentation structure comprises at least three hierarchal levels of segments.

7. The method of claim 4, wherein the bankruptcy/default score is used to assign the individual to at least a final segment and a parent segment in the segmentation structure.

8. The method of claim 1, wherein a plurality of adverse action codes are associated with the particular individual, the adverse action codes each indicating a reason as to why the final risk score was assigned to the particular individual, wherein if being assigned to the first segment or the second segment affected the final risk score by a predetermined proportion, at least one of the plurality of adverse action codes relates to assignment to the particular segment.

9. A tangible computer readable storage medium having computer-executable instructions stored thereon, the computer-executable instructions readable by a computing system comprising one or more computing devices, wherein the computer-executable instructions are executable on the computing system in order to cause the computing system to perform operations comprising:

receiving from one or more data sources observation data comprising financial and demographic information regarding a plurality of individuals, the observation data indicating characteristics of the individuals at an observation time;

storing the observation data in a computer memory or a mass storage device;

receiving from one or more data sources outcome data comprising financial and demographic information regarding a plurality of individuals fitting a bad performance definition, wherein the outcome data comprises financial and demographic information associated with a time period beginning after the observation time;

storing the outcome data in a computer memory or a mass storage device;

generating a bankruptcy/default model based on a comparison of the observation data and the outcome data, wherein the bankruptcy/default model is configured for application to financial and demographic data of an individual to determine to which of a plurality of segments in a segmentation structure a particular individual should be assigned;

storing the bankruptcy/default model in a computer memory or a mass storage device;

applying the default/bankruptcy model to a particular individual'"'"'s financial and demographic information to determine a propensity of the particular individual to either default on one or more financial instruments or file for bankruptcy;

in response to the determined propensity indicating that the particular individual is more likely to file for bankruptcy than to default on one or more financial instruments,

assigning the particular individual to a first segment of the segmentation structure; and

applying a first risk score model to the particular individual'"'"'s financial and demographic information to determine a final risk score of the particular individual; and

in response to the determined propensity indicating that the particular individual is more likely to default on one or more financial instruments than to file for bankruptcy,

assigning the particular individual to a second segment of the segmentation structure; and

applying a second risk score model to the particular individual'"'"'s financial and demographic information to determine a final risk score of the particular individual.