System for performing context-sensitive decisions about ideal communication modalities considering information about channel reliability

• US 7,716,532 B2
• Filed: 08/31/2006
• Issued: 05/11/2010
• Est. Priority Date: 06/04/1999
• Status: Expired due to Fees

• Current Assignee: Microsoft Technology Licensing LLC (Microsoft Corporation)
• Original Assignee: Microsoft Corporation
• Inventors: Horvitz, Eric J.
• Primary Examiner(s): Iqbal; Nadeem
• Application Number:
  US11/469,100
• Publication Number:
  US 20060291580A1
• Time in Patent Office: 1,349 Days
• Field of Search: 714/4, 714/13, 714/15, 714/16, 714/20, 714/21, 714 37- 39, 714/43
• US Class Current: 714/43
• CPC Class Codes: H04L 1/20 using signal quality detector
• CPC Class Codes: H04L 69/24 Negotiation of communication capabilities

Abstract

A system and method for identifying ideal channels for communications based on an analysis of communication channel reliability, communicating party preferences, and communicating party contexts is provided. The system attempts to optimize the utility of a communication based on inferred or directly accessed channel reliability data, communicating party preferences and communicating party contexts. Such optimization can be achieved using reliabilities, preferences and policies concerning handling the attempted contact based on a deterministic specification or through inferring reliability, context, content and task under uncertainty by employing decision-theoretic inferences. The methods may consider channels currently available as well as channels available at later times. Thus, the service can include automated rescheduling of communications based on a consideration of forecasts of reliability and availability. The approach may include the use of forecasts about the time required for a communication and the likelihood that a connection will be dropped or will lose fidelity over this period of time. The methods may also include a consideration of metadata within a standard schema that is transmitted along with a communication attempt, the metadata representing information about attributes like the potential communication channels, the identity of the contactor, the task at hand, and the context of the communicating parties. The invocation of the communication service may be performed in a variety of ways, including single button invocations, and via a communication service that is more deeply integrated with other applications and functionalities.

Claims

1. A system for increasing the utility of a communication between communicating parties, the system comprising:

a reliability analyzer that predicts reliability of communication channels, the reliability analyzer including a reliability predictor that generates a probability that a communication will be completed with predetermined desired transmission qualities and a reliability prediction integrator that updates one or more pieces of information that are employed in selecting a communication channel for communication and updates an expected utility that is computed without regard to reliability; and

a channel manager that selects the communication channel based on analyzing extrinsic data in association with the communication channel maximizing utility of communication between the communicating parties as a function of the reliability prediction.

2. The system of claim 1, wherein the predicted reliability is based on one or more of a cost associated with a lost connection, a cost to reconnect, and a utility of a partially completed communication.

3. The system of claim 2, wherein the cost associated with a lost connection and the cost to reconnect include one or more of frustration cost, monetary cost, time delay cost, resource consumption cost, embarrassment cost, and opportunity cost.

4. The system of claim 1, wherein the predicted reliability is based on a prediction that the communication channel will experience one or more of:

loss of fidelity, loss of connection, and communication being compromised.

5. The system of claim 4, wherein the reliability analyzer predicts the loss of connection as a function of at least one of:

expected duration of a communication and reliability history of the communication channel.

6. The system of claim 4, wherein the compromised communication is at least one of:

intercepted, decrypted, and altered by a party that is not one of the communicating parties.

7. The system of claim 1, further comprising employing a decision model including at least one of:

an expected value decision about communications between parties;

a time parameter relating to the communications; and

a control decision for communications between the parties based in part on the expected value decision, the time parameter, and at least one of;

context of at least one of the parties and the reliability prediction.

8. The system of claim 7, wherein the context of at least one of the parties is influenced by at least one of a cost of interruption and a cost of deferral of the communication at a future time.

9. The system of claim 8, wherein the cost of deferral is influenced by at least one of:

an identity of a party and one or more stated or sensed communication goals.

10. The system of claim 9, wherein the identity and the goals further influence a cost associated with fidelity of a communication channel.

11. The system of claim 10, further comprising determining an influence of a party'"'"'s initial channel of contact and the party'"'"'s preferred channel.

12. The system of claim 1, wherein the utility is further based upon inferring at least one of:

cost to the sending party, cost to the receiving party, value to the sending party, and value to the receiving party.

13. The system of claim 1, wherein the utility is further based upon preferences of one or more of the communicating parties.

14. A method for identifying a communication channel that facilitates optimizing utility of a communication between communicating parties, comprising:

identifying a potential communication channel for the communication;

generating a probability that the communication will be completed with predetermined desired transmission qualities;

updating one or more pieces of information that are employed in selecting the potential communication channel for communication and updating an expected utility that is computed without regard to reliability; and

determining maximum utility associated with the communication based on analyzing communication channel reliability, communicating party preferences, and communicating party context.

15. The method of claim 14, wherein the communication channel reliability is based upon at least one of:

reliability history of the communication channel, reliability history of a current communication, communication length, communication type, mean time between failure of the communication channel, average failure duration of the communication channel, average percent degradation of the communication channel, an atmospheric condition associated with the communication channel, scheduled communication channel maintenance, and scheduled communication channel downtime.

16. The method of claim 14, wherein the communicating party preferences comprise at least one of:

contactor preference data and contactee preference data.

17. The method of claim 16, wherein the communicating party context comprises at least one of:

contactor context data and contactee context data.

18. The method of claim 17, wherein determining the expected utility comprises:

analyzing the contactor preference data, the contactor context data, the contactee preference data and/or the contactee context data to determine one or more relationships;

selecting one or more rules based, at least in part, on the relationships;

applying the one or more rules to determine a conditional expected utility;

determining an expected reliability of the communication channel based on at least one of the communication channel data and the relationships; and

updating the conditional expected utility based on the expected reliability of the communication channel.

19. A system for optimizing contacts between one or more parties, comprising:

means for determining one or more expected utilities associated with the contacts based, at least in part, on data associated with one or more contactors, data associated with one or more contactees, and data associated with one or more communication channels, wherein the data associated with the communication channels comprises at least reliability data;

means for generating a probability that the contacts between one or more parties will be completed with predetermined desired transmission qualities;

means for updating one or more pieces of information that are employed in selecting the communication channels for communication and updating the expected utility that is computed without regard to the reliability data; and

means for establishing the contact based upon maximizing the expected utility.

20. The system of claim 19, further comprising:

means for applying one or more inference formulae to infer probabilities associated with;

one or more pieces of data associated with a contactor, one or more pieces of data associated with a contactee, and one or more pieces of data associated with a communication channel.