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Statistical-deterministic approach to natural disaster prediction

  • US 7,734,245 B2
  • Filed: 03/23/2006
  • Issued: 06/08/2010
  • Est. Priority Date: 01/13/2006
  • Status: Active Grant
First Claim
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1. A method of predicting storm wind distributions within a specified region of interest using a computer processor, the method comprising:

  • synthesizing a time series of environmental wind corresponding to multiple atmospheric levels constrained by climate data;

    statistically synthesizing a plurality of storm tracks that pass within a specified region;

    for each storm track of the plurality of synthesized tracks(a) determining environmental wind along the storm track from the synthesized time series of environmental wind,(b) determining, using the computer processor, storm intensity along the storm track by applying a deterministically simulation using environmental data as an input, the environmental data including the determined environmental wind along the storm track, and(c) determining an output representative of storm wind along the storm track from the determined storm intensity along the track; and

    using the determined outputs representative of the storm winds to estimate an overall storm wind probability distribution from a combination of the storm wind along the synthesized tracks that passes within the specified region.

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