Statistical-deterministic approach to natural disaster prediction
First Claim
1. A method of predicting storm wind distributions within a specified region of interest using a computer processor, the method comprising:
- synthesizing a time series of environmental wind corresponding to multiple atmospheric levels constrained by climate data;
statistically synthesizing a plurality of storm tracks that pass within a specified region;
for each storm track of the plurality of synthesized tracks(a) determining environmental wind along the storm track from the synthesized time series of environmental wind,(b) determining, using the computer processor, storm intensity along the storm track by applying a deterministically simulation using environmental data as an input, the environmental data including the determined environmental wind along the storm track, and(c) determining an output representative of storm wind along the storm track from the determined storm intensity along the track; and
using the determined outputs representative of the storm winds to estimate an overall storm wind probability distribution from a combination of the storm wind along the synthesized tracks that passes within the specified region.
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Abstract
A combined statistical-deterministic approach to methods and systems for assessing risk associated with natural disasters, in particular, hurricane wind risk. One example of a method of predicting wind speed distribution within a predetermined distance from a point of interest includes steps of statistically synthesizing a large plurality of wind storm tracks that pass within a predetermined radius of the point of interest, running a deterministic simulation of wind intensity along each one of the large plurality of wind storm tracks to produce an output representative of wind speed distribution along each track, and using the output to estimate an overall wind speed probability distribution from a combination of the wind speed distributions along each track within the predetermined distance from the point of interest.
46 Citations
18 Claims
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1. A method of predicting storm wind distributions within a specified region of interest using a computer processor, the method comprising:
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synthesizing a time series of environmental wind corresponding to multiple atmospheric levels constrained by climate data; statistically synthesizing a plurality of storm tracks that pass within a specified region; for each storm track of the plurality of synthesized tracks (a) determining environmental wind along the storm track from the synthesized time series of environmental wind, (b) determining, using the computer processor, storm intensity along the storm track by applying a deterministically simulation using environmental data as an input, the environmental data including the determined environmental wind along the storm track, and (c) determining an output representative of storm wind along the storm track from the determined storm intensity along the track; and using the determined outputs representative of the storm winds to estimate an overall storm wind probability distribution from a combination of the storm wind along the synthesized tracks that passes within the specified region. - View Dependent Claims (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 15, 18)
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14. A computer readable medium encoded with a plurality for instructions adapted to be executed on at least one processor to:
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synthesize a time series of environmental wind corresponding to multiple atmospheric levels constrained by climate data; statistically synthesize a plurality of storm tracks that pass within a specified region; for each storm track of the plurality of synthesized tracks (a) determine environmental wind along the storm track from the synthesized time series of environmental wind, (b) determine storm intensity along the storm track by applying a deterministic simulation using environmental data as an input, the environmental data including the determined environmental wind along the storm track, and (c) determining an output representative of storm wind along the storm track; and use the determined outputs representative of the storm winds to estimate an overall storm wind probability distribution from a combination of the storm wind along the synthesized tracks that passes within the specified region.
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16. A method of generating a data set corresponding to a probabilistic wind speed distribution within a specified region using a computer processor, the method comprising:
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synthesizing a time series of environmental wind corresponding to multiple atmospheric levels constrained by climate data; statistically synthesizing a plurality of storm tracks that pass within the specified region; for each storm track of the plurality of synthesized tracks (a) determining environmental wind along the storm track from the synthesized time series of environmental wind, (b) determining, using the computer processor, storm intensity along the storm track by applying a deterministic simulation using environmental data as an input, the environmental data including the determined environmental wind along the storm track, and (c) determining an output representative of storm wind along the storm track from the determined storm intensity along the track; and producing the data set by combining the outputs representative of storm wind for the synthesized storm tracks that pass within the specified region.
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17. A method of estimating long-term risk associated with wind speed within an area of interest using a computer processor, the method comprising:
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synthesizing a time series of environmental wind corresponding to multiple atmospheric levels constrained by climate data; statistically synthesizing a plurality of storm tracks that pass within the area of interest; for each storm track of the plurality of synthesized tracks (a) determining environmental wind along the storm track from the synthesized time series of environmental wind, (b) determining, using the computer processor, storm intensity along the storm track by applying a deterministic simulation using environmental data as an input, the environmental data including the determined environmental wind along the storm track, and (c) determining an output representative of total wind from parametric or modeled storm wind and an environmental wind along the storm track using the determined storm intensity along the track; generating a probabilistically weighted combination of the total wind along each track to create a probabilistic total wind distribution within the area of interest; and estimating a risk of wind speed within the area of interest exceeding a predetermined threshold value based on the probabilistic total wind distribution.
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Specification