System, method, and computer program for early event detection

• US 7,734,451 B2
• Filed: 10/18/2006
• Issued: 06/08/2010
• Est. Priority Date: 10/18/2005
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: Honeywell International Inc.
• Original Assignee: Honeywell International Inc.
• Inventors: Foslien, Wendy K., Srinivasrao, Mohan N., Mylaraswamy, Dinkar, MacArthur, J. Ward
• Primary Examiner(s): Rodriguez; Paul L
• Assistant Examiner(s): GUILL, RUSSELL L
• Application Number:
  US11/583,219
• Publication Number:
  US 20070088534A1
• Time in Patent Office: 1,329 Days
• Field of Search: 703/2
• US Class Current: 703/2
• CPC Class Codes: G05B 13/0295 using fuzzy logic and expert systems
• CPC Class Codes: G05B 17/02 electric
• CPC Class Codes: G06N 7/02 using fuzzy logic computing arrangements based on biological models G06N3/00; computing arrangements using knowledge-based models G06N5/00

Abstract

Various methods, devices, systems, and computer programs are disclosed relating to the use of models to represent systems and processes (such as manufacturing and production plants). For example, a method may include generating a first model and a second model using operating data associated with a system or process. The method may also include using the first and second models to predict one or more events associated with the system or process. The one or more events are predicted by generating one or more initial event predictions using the first model and adjusting the one or more initial event predictions using the second model. The first model may represent a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) model, and the second model may represent a Fuzzy Logic model.

Claims

1. A method, comprising:

receiving operating data associated with an industrial process at an early event detector;

generating a first model and a second model using a first training set of the operating data, the first model generated by producing a first Principal Component Analysis (PCA) model and reducing a number of principal components in the first PCA model, the second model generated by adjusting a membership function and a digital latch associated with a Fuzzy Logic model, the first training set comprising operating data associated with normal operation of the industrial process;

forming an early event detection (EED) model using the first and second models;

validating at least one of the first model and the EED model by generating a third model and comparing operation of at least one of the first model and the EED model to operation of the third model, the third model comprising a second PCA model generated using a second training set of the operating data, the second training set comprising operating data associated with normal operation of the industrial process distinct from the first training set;

using the EED model to predict one or more events associated with the industrial process, the one or more events associated with one or more abnormal conditions in the industrial process, the one or more events predicted by;

generating one or more initial event predictions using current operating data associated with the industrial process and the first model; and

adjusting the one or more initial event predictions by at least one of;

normalizing, shaping, and tuning an output of the first model using the second model; and

generating one or more notifications identifying the one or more predicted events.

2. The method of claim 1, further comprising:

identifying at least one invalid data element in the current operating data;

estimating a value for one or more of the invalid data elements using at least some valid data elements in the current operating data, wherein the estimating comprises performing a rank revealing OR factorization of a 2-norm known data regression problem; and

using the estimated value for one or more of the invalid data elements to generate the one or more initial event predictions.

3. The method of claim 1, further comprising:

presenting a graphical display to a user; and

receiving from the user an identification of the first and second training sets and parameter values for tuning the first and second models.

4. The method of claim 1, further comprising:

presenting a graphical display to a user; and

receiving from the user an identification of a plurality of first events associated with the industrial process;

wherein validating at least one of the first model and the EED model comprises determining whether second events identified using the EED model match the first events.

5. The method of claim 1, wherein generating the first model further comprises refining the first PCA model while keeping a percentage of time that at least one statistic exceeds its statistical limit below a threshold, the statistic comprising at least one of a Q statistic and a T² statistic associated with the first PCA model.

6. The method of claim 1, wherein generating the first and second models further comprises:

defining a filter for dynamically adjusting a mean value associated with an input variable; and

defining a mode switch for modifying, based on transitions in the input variable, one or more characteristics of the filter to provide slower or faster response.

7. An apparatus comprising:

at least one memory configured to store operating data associated with an industrial process; and

at least one processor configured to;

generate a first model and a second model using a first training set of the operating data, the at least one processor configured to generate the first model by producing a first Principal Component Analysis (PCA) model and reducing a number of principal components in the first PCA model, the at least one processor configured to generate the second model by adjusting a membership function and a digital latch associated with a Fuzzy Logic model, the first training set comprising operating data associated with normal operation of the industrial process;

form an early event detection (EED) model using the first and second models;

validate at least one of the first model and the EED model by generating a third model and comparing operation of at least one of the first model and the EED model to operation of the third model, the third model comprising a second PCA model, the at least one processor configured to generate the second PCA model using a second training set of the operating data, the second training set comprising operating data associated with normal operation of the industrial process distinct from the first training set;

use the EED model to predict one or more events associated with the industrial process, the one or more events associated with one or more abnormal conditions in the industrial process, the at least one processor configured to predict the one or more events by;

generating one or more initial event predictions using current operating data associated with the industrial process and the first model; and

adjust the one or more initial event predictions by at least one of;

normalizing, shaping, and tuning an output of the first model using the second model; and

generate one or more notifications identifying the one or more predicted events.

8. The apparatus of claim 7, wherein the at least one processor is further configured to:

identify at least one invalid data element in the current operating data;

estimate a value for one or more of the invalid data elements using at least some valid data elements in the current operating data, wherein the at least one processor is configured to estimate the value for the one or more invalid data elements by performing a rank revealing QR factorization of a 2-norm known data regression problem; and

use the estimated value for one or more of the invalid data elements to generate the one or more initial event predictions.

9. The apparatus of claim 7, wherein the at least one processor is further configured to:

present a graphical display to a user; and

receive from the user an identification of the first and second training sets and parameter values for tuning the first and second models.

10. The apparatus of claim 7, wherein the at least one processor is further configured to:

present a graphical display to a user; and

receive from the user an identification of a plurality of first events associated with the industrial process;

wherein the at least one processor is configured to validate at least one of the first model and the EED model by determining whether second events identified using the EED model match the first events.

11. The apparatus of claim 7, wherein the at least one processor is configured to generate the first model by refining the first PCA model while keeping a percentage of time that at least one statistic exceeds its statistical limit below a threshold, the statistic comprising at least one of a Q statistic and a T² statistic associated with the first PCA model.

12. The apparatus of claim 7, wherein the at least one processor is configured to provide:

a filler for dynamically adjusting a mean value associated with an input variable; and

a mode switch for modifying, based on transitions in the input variable, one or more characteristics of the filter to provide slower or faster response.

13. A tangible computer-readable medium embodying a computer program, the computer program comprising computer readable program code for:

receiving operating data associated with an industrial process;

generating a first model and a second model using a first training set of the operating data, the first model generated by producing a first Principal Component Analysis (PCA) model and reducing a number of principal components in the first PCA model, the second model generated by adjusting a membership function and a digital latch associated with a Fuzzy Logic model, the first training set comprising operating data associated with normal operation of the industrial process;

forming an early event detection (BED) model using the first and second models;

validating at least one of the first model and the EED model by generating a third model and comparing operation of at least one of the first model and the EED model to operation of the third model, the third model comprising a second PCA model generated using a second training set of the operating data, the second training set comprising operating data associated with normal operation of the industrial process distinct from the first training set;

using the EED model to predict one or more events associated with the industrial process, the one or more events associated with one or more abnormal conditions in the industrial process, the one or more events predicted by;

generating one or more initial event predictions using current operating data associated with the industrial process and the first model; and

adjusting the one or more initial event predictions by at least one of;

normalizing, shaping, and tuning an output of the first model using the second model; and

generating one or more notifications identifying the one or more predicted events.

14. The computer-readable medium of claim 13, further comprising computer readable program code for:

identifying at least one invalid data element in the current operating data;

estimating a value for one or more of the invalid data elements using at least some valid data elements in the current operating data, wherein the estimating comprises performing a rank revealing QR factorization of a 2-norm known data regression problem; and

using the estimated value for one or more of the invalid data elements to generate the one or more initial event predictions.

15. The computer-readable medium of claim 13, further comprising computer readable program code for:

presenting a graphical display to a user; and

receiving from the user an identification of the first and second training sets and parameter values for tuning the first and second models.

16. The computer-readable medium of claim 13, further comprising computer readable program code for:

presenting a graphical display to a user; and

receiving from the user an identification of a plurality of first events associated with the industrial process;

wherein the computer readable program code for validating at least one of the first model and the EED model comprises computer readable program code for determining whether second events identified using the EED model match the first events.

17. The computer-readable medium of claim 13, wherein the computer readable program code for generating the first model comprises computer readable program code for refining the first PCA model while keeping a percentage of time that at least one statistic exceeds its statistical limit below a threshold, the statistic comprising at least one of a Q statistic and a T² statistic associated with the first PCA model.

18. The computer-readable medium of claim 13, wherein the computer readable program code for generating the first and second models further comprises computer readable program code for:

defining a filter for dynamically adjusting a mean value associated with an input variable; and

defining a mode switch for modifying, based on transitions in the input variable, one or more characteristics of the filter to provide slower or faster response.

19. A system comprising:

a plurality of controllers each configured to generate output data for controlling one or more actuators associated with an industrial process using input data from one or more sensors; and

an early event detector configured to;

receive operating data comprising at least some of the input or output data;

generate a first model and a second model using a first training set of the operating data, the early event detector configured to generate the first model by producing a first Principal Component Analysis (PCA) model and reducing a number of principal components in the first PCA model, the early event detector configured to generate the second model by adjusting a membership function ad a digital latch associated with a Fuzzy Logic model, the first training set comprising operating data associated with normal operation of the industrial process;

form a early event detection (EED) model using the first ad second models;

validate at least one of the first model ad the EED model by generating a third model and comparing operation of at least one of the first model ad the EED model to operation of the third model, the third model comprising a second PCA model, the early event detector configured to generate the second PCA model using a second training set of the operating data, the second training set comprising operating data associated with normal operation of the industrial process distinct from the first training set;

use the EED model to predict one or more events associated with the industrial process, the one or more events associated with one or more abnormal conditions in the industrial process, the one or more events predicted by;

generating one or more initial event predictions using current operating data associated with the industrial process and the first model; and

adjusting the one or more initial event predictions by at least one of;

normalizing, shaping, and tuning an output of the first model using the second model; and

generate one or more notifications identifying the one or more predicted events.

20. The system of claim 19, wherein the early event detector is configured to generate the first model by refining the first PCA model while keeping a percentage of time that at least one statistic exceeds its statistical limit below a threshold, the statistic comprising at least one of a Q statistic and a T² statistic associated with the first PCA model.

21. The system of claim 19, wherein the early event detector is configured to provide:

a filter for dynamically adjusting a mean value associated with an input variable; and

a mode switch for modifying, based on transitions in the input variable, one or more characteristics of the filter to provide slower or faster response.