System and method for modeling construction risk using location-based construction planning models
First Claim
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1. A method for modeling construction risk comprising:
- providing a statistical model for each of a plurality of location-based tasks of a construction project model, wherein one of a plurality of work crews performs an associated one of each of the plurality of location-based tasks, wherein one of a plurality of first statistical models is related to a corresponding one of the plurality of work crews, and one of a plurality of second statistical models is related to a corresponding one location variable of each location-based task;
randomly selecting a model parameter for each of the plurality of first statistical models and each of the plurality of second statistical models to generate a statistically-based duration for each of the location-based tasks;
calculating a schedule duration based on the statistically-based durations of the location-based tasks; and
repeating the steps of providing, randomly selecting, and calculating until a statistical distribution for the construction project model is generated.
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Abstract
A method for modeling construction risk is provided. The method includes providing a statistical model for each of a plurality of location-based tasks of a construction project model. A model parameter is randomly selected for each of the plurality of statistical models to generate a statistically-based duration for each of the location-based tasks. A schedule duration is then calculated using the statistically-based durations of the location-based tasks, and the steps of providing, randomly selecting, and calculating are repeated until a statistical distribution for the construction project model is generated, such as using a Monte Carlo analysis procedure.
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Citations
20 Claims
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1. A method for modeling construction risk comprising:
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providing a statistical model for each of a plurality of location-based tasks of a construction project model, wherein one of a plurality of work crews performs an associated one of each of the plurality of location-based tasks, wherein one of a plurality of first statistical models is related to a corresponding one of the plurality of work crews, and one of a plurality of second statistical models is related to a corresponding one location variable of each location-based task; randomly selecting a model parameter for each of the plurality of first statistical models and each of the plurality of second statistical models to generate a statistically-based duration for each of the location-based tasks; calculating a schedule duration based on the statistically-based durations of the location-based tasks; and repeating the steps of providing, randomly selecting, and calculating until a statistical distribution for the construction project model is generated. - View Dependent Claims (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8)
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9. A system for modeling construction risk comprising:
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A construction task modeling system configured to store a model having one or more parameters for each of a plurality of location-based tasks and a plurality of work crews, wherein one of the plurality of works crews performs an associated one of each of the plurality of location-based tasks, wherein one of a plurality of first statistical models is related to a corresponding one of the plurality of work crews, and one of a plurality of second statistical models is related to a corresponding one location variable of each location-based task; A production risk system configured to store one or more risk models configured to generate a value for each of the one or more parameters of the plurally of location-based tasks and the plurality of work crews based on an input using one or more of the first statistical models and the second statistical models; and A Monte Carlo simulation system configured to iteratively randomly select a model parameter for the first statistical models and the second statistical models to generate a statistically-based duration for each of the location-based tasks. - View Dependent Claims (10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17)
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18. A system for modeling construction risk comprising:
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A construction task modeling system configured to store one or more parameters for each of a plurality of location-based tasks wherein one of a plurality of first statistical models is related to a corresponding one of each location-based task; A productivity rate risk system configured to store one or more parameters for each of a plurality of individual construction crews, wherein one of a plurality of second statistical models is related to a corresponding one of the plurality of construction crews; and A Monte Carlo simulation system configured to iteratively randomly select a parameter for the first statistical models and the second statistical models to generate a statistically-based duration for each of the location-based tasks. - View Dependent Claims (19, 20)
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Specification