System, method, and computer program product for predicting a weather-based financial index value

• US 7,752,106 B1
• Filed: 07/19/2005
• Issued: 07/06/2010
• Est. Priority Date: 07/19/2005
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: Planalytics, Inc.
• Original Assignee: Planalytics, Inc.
• Inventors: Fox, Frederic D., Corby, Paul Mark, Machado, Roberto Correa Jr.
• Primary Examiner(s): Kalinowski; Alexander
• Assistant Examiner(s): JOHNSON, GREGORY L
• Application Number:
  US11/183,907
• Time in Patent Office: 1,813 Days
• Field of Search: None
• US Class Current: 705/35
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/00 Finance; Insurance; Tax strategies; Processing of corporate or income taxes
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/06 Asset management; Financial planning or analysis

Abstract

A weather-based financial index is based at least in part on weather. The index may take into account any of a variety of weather factors, such as temperature, precipitation, humidity, number of sunny or overcast days in a period of time, number of freeze days in a period of time, etc. Weather factor value(s) are combined with one or more financial components to provide the weather-based financial index. The index may be traded on an exchange, such as the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). The value of the index may be calculated based on any period or on any geography (or combination of geographies). Historical values of the index or component(s) thereof may be used to predict future values of the index. Values of the index may provide insight into the direction of a component of the index, a market or industry corresponding to the component, or the index itself.

Claims

1. A computer implemented method for predicting a weather-based financial index value, comprising:

predicting, with a processor, a plurality of future financial components based on a respective plurality of historical financial components;

predicting, with the processor, a value of a future weather factor based on a value of a historical weather factor;

multiplying, with the processor, each of the plurality of future financial components by a corresponding weighting factor based on a future stocks-to-use ratio, thereby generating a plurality of weighted future financial components;

combining, with the processor, the plurality of weighted future financial components, thereby generating a combination of future components; and

dividing, with the processor, the combination of future components by the value of the future weather factor, thereby predicting the weather-based financial index value.

2. The method of claim 1, wherein the corresponding weighting factor further includes at least one of a supply variable and a demand variable.

3. The method of claim 1, wherein each corresponding weighting factor has a common unit of measurement with other corresponding weighting factors.

4. The method of claim 1, wherein each corresponding weighting factor corresponds to a respective geography.

5. The method of claim 1, wherein each corresponding weighting factor is based on an economic indicator.

6. The method of claim 1, wherein each corresponding weighting factor is based on population.

7. The method of claim 1, wherein the future financial components include a price of at least one of crude oil, natural gas, heating oil, and gasoline.

8. The method of claim 1, wherein the future financial components include a price of electricity.

9. The method of claim 1, wherein the future financial components include a value of at least one of an equity instrument, an income instrument, and an insurance variable.

10. The method of claim 1, wherein the future weather factor is based on a temperature.

11. The method of claim 1, wherein the future weather factor is based on precipitation.

12. The method of claim 1, wherein the future weather factor is based on storm activity.

13. The method of claim 1, wherein the future weather factor is based on two or more weather variables.

14. The method of claim 1, wherein the future financial components represent commodities.

15. The method of claim 1, wherein the future financial components represent equity instruments.

16. The method of claim 1, wherein the future financial components represent same-store-sales values of respective equities.

17. The method of claim 1, wherein the future financial components represent rate-of-change values of respective equities.

18. The method of claim 1, wherein the future financial components represent dividends paid per period for respective equities.

19. The method of claim 1, wherein at least one future financial component is based on an economic indicator.

20. The method of claim 1, wherein the future financial components represent income instruments.

21. A computer readable medium embodied with programmable code, said code when executed, causing a processor to predict a weather-based financial index value, the computer readable medium comprising:

a first module that causes the processor to predict a plurality of future financial components based on a respective plurality of historical financial components;

a second module that causes the processor to predict a value of a future weather factor based on a value of a historical weather factor;

a third module that causes the processor to multiply each of the plurality of future financial components by a corresponding weighting factor based on a future stocks-to-use ratio, thereby generating a plurality of weighted future financial components;

a fourth module that causes the processor to combine the plurality of weighted future financial components, thereby generating a combination of future components; and

a fifth module that causes the processor to divide the combination of future components by the value of the future weather factor, thereby predicting the weather-based financial index value.

22. The computer readable medium of claim 21, wherein the weighting factor further includes at least one of a supply variable and a demand variable.

23. The computer readable medium of claim 21, wherein each corresponding weighting factor has a common unit of measurement with other corresponding weighting factors.

24. The computer readable medium of claim 21, wherein each corresponding weighting factor corresponds to a respective geography.

25. The computer readable medium of claim 21, wherein each corresponding weighting factor is based on an economic indicator.

26. The computer readable medium of claim 21, wherein each corresponding weighting factor is based on population.

27. The computer readable medium of claim 21, wherein the future financial components include a price of at least one of crude oil, natural gas, heating oil, and gasoline.

28. The computer readable medium of claim 21, wherein the future financial components include a price of electricity.

29. The computer readable medium of claim 21, wherein the future financial components include a value of at least one of an equity instrument, an income instrument, and an insurance variable.

30. The computer readable medium of claim 21, wherein the future weather factor is based on a temperature.

31. The computer readable medium of claim 21, wherein the future weather factor is based on precipitation.

32. The computer readable medium of claim 21, wherein the future weather factor is based on storm activity.

33. The computer readable medium of claim 21, wherein the future weather factor is based on two or more weather variables.

34. The computer readable medium of claim 21, wherein the future financial components represent commodities.

35. The computer readable medium of claim 21, wherein the future financial components represent equity instruments.

36. The computer readable medium of claim 21, wherein the future financial components represent same-store-sales values of respective equities.

37. The computer readable medium of claim 21, wherein the future financial components represent rate-of-change values of respective equities.

38. The computer readable medium of claim 21, wherein the future financial components represent dividends paid per period for respective equities.

39. The computer readable medium of claim 21, wherein at least one future financial component is based on an economic indicator.

40. The computer readable medium of claim 21, wherein the future financial components represent income instruments.

41. A computer implemented method for predicting a weather-based financial index value, comprising:

predicting, with a processor, a future financial component based on a historical financial component;

predicting, with the processor, a value of a future weather factor based on a value of a historical weather factor;

multiplying, with the processor, the future financial component by a weighting factor based on a future stocks-to-use ratio, thereby generating a weighted future financial component; and

combining, with the processor, the weighted future financial component and the future weather factor value, thereby predicting the weather-based financial index value.

42. The method of claim 41, wherein the combining of the weighted future financial component and the future weather factor value includes dividing the weighted future financial component by the future weather factor value.

43. The method of claim 41, wherein the future weather factor is based on a predetermined geography.

44. The method of claim 41, wherein the predicted weather-based financial index value is based at least in part on population.

45. The method of claim 41, wherein the future financial component is based on a price of at least one of crude oil, natural gas, heating oil, and gasoline.

46. The method of claim 41, wherein the future financial component is based on a price of electricity.

47. The method of claim 41, wherein the future financial component is based on a value of at least one of an equity instrument, an income instrument, and an insurance variable.

48. The method of claim 41, wherein the future weather factor is based on a temperature.

49. The method of claim 41, wherein the future weather factor is based on precipitation.

50. The method of claim 41, wherein the future weather factor is based on storm activity.

51. The method of claim 41, wherein the future weather factor is based on two or more weather variables.

52. The method of claim 41, wherein the future financial component represents a commodity.

53. The method of claim 41, wherein the future financial component represents an equity instrument.

54. The method of claim 41, wherein the future financial component represents a same-store-sales value of an equity.

55. The method of claim 41, wherein the future financial component represents a rate-of-change value of an equity.

56. The method of claim 41, wherein the future financial component represents dividends paid per period for an equity.

57. The method of claim 41, wherein the predicted weather-based financial index value is based on an economic indicator.

58. The method of claim 41, wherein the future financial component represents an income instrument.