Semi-quantitative risk analysis

• US 7,769,684 B2
• Filed: 05/19/2006
• Issued: 08/03/2010
• Est. Priority Date: 05/19/2006
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: Accenture Global Services Limited (Accenture PLC)
• Original Assignee: Accenture Global Services GmbH (Accenture PLC)
• Inventors: Beltrame, Derval Jr., Carvalho, Henrique Fernandes, Avila da Luz Neto, Acyr, Del Bianco, Denis, Neto, Dario Derenzi, De Albernaz, Julio Rangel, Tavares, Deram, Da Silva, Luiz Guilherme Pereira
• Primary Examiner(s): Kazimi; Hani
• Assistant Examiner(s): Shaikh; Mohammad Z
• Application Number:
  US11/436,978
• Publication Number:
  US 20070271198A1
• Time in Patent Office: 1,537 Days
• Field of Search: 705/35
• US Class Current: 705/38
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06 Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/0635 Risk analysis of enterprise or organisation activities
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/067 Enterprise or organisation modelling
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/00 Finance; Insurance; Tax strategies; Processing of corporate or income taxes
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/03 Credit; Loans; Processing thereof
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/06 Asset management; Financial planning or analysis

Abstract

A semi-quantitative analysis on the risk management process increases the possibility of performing an accurate risks comparison, making easier the identification of which risks shall be prioritized and shall receive the greatest mitigation efforts. Specifically, the semi-quantitative risk analysis enables an improved risks comparison for evaluating the consequences of each risk considering its impacts on the project'"'"'s Net Present Value (NPV), reflecting the project'"'"'s cash flow at different times. The use of such method makes the prioritization process more efficient, helping the managers and other personnel involved on the process to focus their efforts to the most critical risks for the project'"'"'s success. In this sense, the risk management process becomes more efficient and better able to provide better support to the project decision makers.

Claims

1. A computer-implemented project risk assessment method comprising:

a computer receiving and storing project data, wherein said project data defines the net present value (NPV) of a project over a time period;

said computer identifying a plurality of project risks using said project data;

said computer, for each of the project risks, defining an impact to the NPV and a probability of occurrence;

said computer continuously prioritizing each of the project risks in real-time according to the risks'"'"' respective impacts to NPV and probability of occurrence;

said computer continuously selecting the project risk with the greatest priority in real-time;

said computer planning a response to the selected project risks;

said computer monitoring said project and said response in real time;

said computer generating;

an avoided risks total impact figure based on the risks avoided by adopting the response;

an expected risks total impact figure based on the risks expected by adopting the response; and

a total benefit for the project, the total benefit being calculated by subtracting the avoided risks total impact figure from the expected risks total impact figure; and

said computer generating a risk prioritization matrix and categorizing the risk within a region of the risk prioritization matrix based on the NPV and the probability of occurrence,

wherein the response is based on the region where the risk is categorized.

2. The computer-implemented project risk assessment method of claim 1, wherein the step of defining an impact to the NPV and a probability of occurrence for each of the risks comprises the computer classifying the impact to the NPV and the computer classifying a probability of occurrence.

3. The computer-implemented project risk assessment method of claim 1, wherein the step of the computer selecting one or more of the project risks comprises classifying the risks into a plurality of categories according to the risks'"'"' respective impacts to NPV and probability of occurrence, and selecting any of the risks occurring in one of the categories.

4. The computer-implemented project risk assessment method of claim 1, wherein the step of defining an impact to the NPV and a probability of occurrence for each of the risks comprises the computer creating a risk prioritization matrix that graphically displays the impacts and occurrence probabilities for the risks.

5. The computer-implemented project risk assessment method of claim 1, wherein the step of defining an impact to the NPV and a probability of occurrence for each of the risks comprises:

defining a project cash flow; and

determining the risks effects on the project cash flow.

6. The computer-implemented project risk assessment method of claim 5, wherein the step of defining an impact to the NPV and a probability of occurrence for each of the risks further comprises identifying CAPEX impacts, OPEX impacts, revenue impacts, and time frame impacts for each of the risks.

19. The computer-implemented project risk assessment method of claim 1, wherein planning the response comprises planning mitigation actions, establishing goals, and defining responsibility for the project risks and the mitigation actions.

20. The computer-implemented projected risk assessment method of claim 1, further comprising:

said computer updating the project data and storing the updated project data based on said computer monitoring; and

said computer identifying an updated risk using said updated project data.

21. The computer-implemented project risk assessment method of claim 1, wherein said computer defines the probability of occurrence based on a statistical model.

22. The computer-implemented project risk assessment method of claim 1, wherein planning the response to the selected project risk comprises allocating an amount of resources based on the project risk, the amount of resources being greater for project risks with higher priorities.

7. A computer-implemented project risk assessment system comprising:

means for receiving and storing project data, wherein said project data defines the net present value (NPV) of a project over time period;

means for identifying a plurality of project risks using said project data;

means for defining an impact to the NPV and a probability of occurrence for each of the project risks;

means for continuously prioritizing each of the project risks in real-time according to the risks'"'"' respective impacts to NPV and probability of occurrence;

means for continuously selecting the project risk with the greatest priority in real-time

means for planning a response to the selected project risks;

means for monitoring said project and said response in real time;

means for generating;

an avoided risks total impact figure based on the risks avoided by adopting the response;

an expected risks total impact figure based on the risks expected by adopting the response; and

a total benefit for the project, the total benefit being calculated by subtracting the avoided risks total impact figure from the expected risks total impact figure; and

means for generating a risk prioritization matrix and categorizing the risk within a region of the risk prioritization matrix based on the NPV and the probability of occurrence,

wherein the response is based on the region where the risk is categorized.

8. The computer-implemented project risk assessment system of claim 7, wherein the means of defining an impact to the NPV and a probability of occurrence for each of the risks comprises the means for classifying the impact to the NPV and means for classifying a probability of occurrence.

9. The computer-implemented project risk assessment system of claim 7, wherein the means for selecting one or more of the project risks comprises means for classifying the risks into a plurality of categories according to the risks'"'"' respective impacts to NPV and probability of occurrence;

and means for selecting any of the risks occurring in one of the categories.

10. The computer-implemented project risk assessment system of claim 7, wherein the means for defining an impact to the NPV and a probability of occurrence for each of the risks comprises the computer creating a risk prioritization matrix that graphically displays the impacts and occurrence probabilities for the risks.

11. The computer-implemented project risk assessment system of claim 7, wherein the means for defining an impact to the NPV and a probability of occurrence for each of the risks comprises:

means for defining a project cash flow; and

means for determining the risks effects on the project cash flow.

12. The computer-implemented project risk assessment system of claim 11, wherein the means for defining an impact to the NPV and a probability of occurrence for each of the risks further comprises means for identifying CAPEX impacts, OPEX impacts, revenue impacts, and time frame impacts for each of the risks.

13. A computer recordable medium storing a program of instruction for implementing a project risk assessment method, wherein the method comprises:

receiving and storing project data, wherein said project data defines the net present value (NPV) of a project over a time period;

identifying a plurality of project risks using said project data;

for each of the project risks, defining an impact to the NPV and a probability of occurrence;

continuously prioritizing the project risks in real-time according to the risks'"'"' respective impacts to NPV and probability of occurrence;

continuously selecting the project risk with the greatest priority in real-time;

planning a response to the selected project risks;

monitoring said project and said response;

generating;

an avoided risks total impact figure based on the risks avoided by adopting the response;

an expected risks total impact figure based on the risks expected by adopting the response; and

a total benefit for the project, the total benefit being calculated by subtracting the avoided risks total impact figure from the expected risks total impact figure; and

generating a risk prioritization matrix and categorizing the risk within a region of the risk prioritization matrix based on the NPV and the probability of occurrence,

wherein the response is based on the region where the risk is categorized.

14. The computer recordable medium storing a program of instruction for implementing a project risk assessment method of claim 13, wherein the step of defining an impact to the NPV and a probability of occurrence for each of the risks comprises classifying the impact to the NPV and classifying a probability of occurrence.

15. The computer recordable medium storing a program of instruction for implementing a project risk assessment method of claim 13, wherein the step of selecting one or more of the project risks comprises classifying the risks into a plurality of categories according to the risks'"'"' respective impacts to NPV and probability of occurrence, and selecting any of the risks occurring in one of the categories.

16. A computer recordable medium storing a program of instruction for implementing a project risk assessment method of claim 13, wherein the step of defining an impact to the NPV and a probability of occurrence for each of the risks comprises creating a risk prioritization matrix that graphically displays the impacts and occurrence probabilities for the risks.

17. The computer recordable medium storing a program of instruction for implementing a project risk assessment method of claim 13, wherein the step of defining an impact to the NPV and a probability of occurrence for each of the risks comprises defining a project cash flow;

and determining the risks effects on the project cash flow.

18. The computer recordable medium storing a program of instruction for implementing a project risk assessment method of claim 17, wherein the step of defining an impact to the NPV and a probability of occurrence for each of the risks further comprises identifying CAPEX impacts, OPEX impacts, revenue impacts, and time frame impacts for each of the risks.