Apparatus for and method of predicting a future behaviour of an object

• US 7,788,027 B2
• Filed: 09/06/2005
• Issued: 08/31/2010
• Est. Priority Date: 09/10/2004
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: Cotares Limited
• Original Assignee: Cotares Limited
• Inventors: Jones, Alan Henry
• Primary Examiner(s): Nguyen; Tan Q
• Application Number:
  US11/574,625
• Publication Number:
  US 20070294030A1
• Time in Patent Office: 1,820 Days
• Field of Search: 701/207, 701/209, 701/300, 701/301, 701/35, 701/201, 701/211, 705/400, 342/357.07
• US Class Current: 701/207
• CPC Class Codes: G01C 21/26 specially adapted for navigation in a road network
• CPC Class Codes: G05B 13/026 using a predictor
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0283 Price estimation or determination
• CPC Class Codes: G07C 5/085 using electronic data carriers

Abstract

An apparatus is provided for predicting the future behavior of an object such as a vehicle. A location and time determining system, such as a GPS receiver (6), determines the geographical location of the vehicle and the current time and supplies this to a processor, such as a computer (1) with a program memory (2). The processor periodically records the location and time to form a record of sightings of the vehicle. The processor (1, 2) compares a sequence of recent sightings with earlier recorded sightings from the record to find matching sequences which represent journey segments which match over a predetermined minimum distance. The processor (1, 2) retrieves some of the sightings which follow the matching sequences and derives from these a prediction of the future behavior, for example possible future routes and destinations of the vehicle.

Claims

1. An apparatus for predicting a future behavior of an object which comprises a location and time determining system for determining a geographical location of the object and a current time, the apparatus comprising a processor for performing operations comprising:

(a) periodically recording the location and time, at least during some movements of the object, to form a record of sightings;

(b) comparing a sequence of recent sightings with earlier recorded sightings from the record to reveal earlier sequences of sightings which match over at least a predetermined distance the sequence of recent sightings such that a journey segment represented by the sequence of recent sightings substantially matches journey segments represented by the earlier sequences of sightings over at least the predetermined distance;

(c) retrieving some subsequent sightings which follow the sightings of at least some of the matching sequences; and

(d) deriving at least one prediction of the future behavior from the retrieved sightings.

2. The apparatus as claimed in claim 1, in which the apparatus is arranged to move with the object.

3. The apparatus as claimed in claim 2, in which the apparatus is attached to or forms part of the object.

4. The apparatus as claimed in claim 1, in which the predetermined distance is substantially equal to 500 m.

5. The apparatus as claimed in claim 1, in which the geographical location includes altitude.

6. The apparatus as claimed in claim 1, in which the recent sightings sequence includes a most recent sighting.

7. The apparatus as claimed in claim 6, in which the processor is arranged to perform (b) as soon as the most recent sighting is recorded.

8. The apparatus as claimed in claim 1, in which the processor is arranged to perform (b) for each Nth recent sighting, where N is an integer greater than zero.

9. The apparatus as claimed in claim 1, in which the processor is arranged, between (a) and (b), to analyze the record into distinct journeys.

10. The apparatus as claimed in claim 9, in which each earlier sequence is from a respective single journey.

11. The apparatus as claimed in claim 1, in which, if the number of matching sequences is greater than a predetermined maximum, the processor is arranged to select those matching sequences whose recorded times have a predetermined relationship with the recorded times of the sequence of recent sightings.

12. The apparatus as claimed in claim 11, in which the predetermined relationship is within a predetermined range of a time of day.

13. The apparatus as claimed in claim 11, in which the predetermined relationship is within a predetermined range of a time of day and on a same day of the week.

14. The apparatus as claimed in claim 11, in which the predetermined relationship is within a predetermined range of a time of day and on a same type of day of the week, wherein types of day are weekdays and weekends.

15. The apparatus as claimed in claim 1, in which, if the number of matching sequences is less than a predetermined minimum, the processor is arranged in (b) additionally to compare the recent sighting sequence with earlier recorded sightings in reverse time order.

16. The apparatus as claimed in claim 1, in which a matching sequence is indicated if positions of the first and last sightings of the recent sighting sequence differ from positions of the first and last sightings of the earlier sequence by less than first and second amounts, respectively, and the measured distances traveled via intermediate sightings of the recent sighting sequence and the earlier sequence differ by less than a third amount.

17. The apparatus as claimed in claim 1, in which a matching sequence is indicated if positions of the first and last sightings of the recent sighting sequence differ from the positions of first and last sightings of the earlier sequence by less than first and second amounts, respectively, and nearest pairs of sightings of the recent sighting sequence and the earlier sequence differ by less than a third amount.

18. The apparatus as claimed in claim 1, in which the object is a vehicle.

19. The apparatus as claimed in claim 18, in which the vehicle is an automobile.

20. The apparatus as claimed in claim 18, in which the processor records at (a) and compares at (b) at least one of an ignition key in use, a seat memory in use, a door used, a window position, a mirror position, a transmission setting, a seat occupancy or weight, an entertainment channel selected, an external temperature, an internal temperature, a rain sensor output, an axle loading, a towbar usage, traffic reports, a pollution level, and a ventilation system setting.

21. The apparatus as claimed in claim 1, in which the processor is arranged to perform (d) by deriving a respective prediction from the retrieved sightings of each of the matching sequences.

22. The apparatus as claimed in claim 1, in which the processor is arranged to perform (d) by deriving as the at least one prediction the behavior of the object following the sightings of the at least some matching sequences.

23. The apparatus as claimed in claim 1, in which the future behavior comprises at least one possible future location of the object.

24. The apparatus as claimed in claim 23, in which the at least one possible future location comprises at least one possible future destination.

25. The apparatus as claimed in claim 23, in which the at least one possible future location comprises at least one possible future route from the recent sighting sequence.

26. The apparatus as claimed in any one of claim 18, in which the future behavior comprises at least one of speed, stops, braking, acceleration, cornering, fuel consumption, distraction level and tiredness.

27. The apparatus as claimed in claim 1, further comprising an output device for presenting the at least one prediction in human-perceivable form.

28. The apparatus as claimed in claim 1, in which the apparatus is a computer.

29. A method of predicting a future behavior of an object, comprising the steps of:

(i) periodically recording a location of the object and a current time, at least during some movements of the object, to form a record of sightings;

(ii) comparing a sequence of recent sightings with earlier recorded sightings from the record to reveal earlier sequences of sightings which match over at least a predetermined distance the sequence of recent sightings such that a journey segment represented by the sequence of recent sightings substantially matches the journey segments represented by the earlier sequences of sightings over at least the predetermined distance;

(iii) retrieving some subsequent sightings which follow the sightings of at least some of the matching sequences; and

(iv) deriving at least one prediction of the future behavior from the retrieved sightings.

30. A computer-readable medium containing a program for predicting a future behavior of an object, which when executed by a processor, performs operations comprising:

(i) periodically recording a location of the object and a current time, at least during some movements of the object, to form a record of sightings;

(ii) comparing a sequence of recent sightings with earlier recorded sightings from the record to reveal earlier sequences of sightings which match over at least a predetermined distance the sequence of recent sightings such that a journey segment represented by the sequence of recent sightings substantially matches the journey segments represented by the earlier sequences of sightings over at least the predetermined distance;

(iii) retrieving some subsequent sightings which follow the sightings of at least some of the matching sequences; and

(iv) deriving at least one prediction of the future behavior from the retrieved sightings.

31. The medium as claimed in claim 30, in which the medium is transmitted across a communication path.