System and method of accident investigation for complex situations involving numerous known and unknown factors along with their probabilistic weightings

• US 7,788,203 B2
• Filed: 04/27/2007
• Issued: 08/31/2010
• Est. Priority Date: 02/26/2007
• Status: Expired due to Fees

• Current Assignee: ServiceNow Incorporated
• Original Assignee: International Business Machines Corporation
• Inventors: Hennessy, Richard A., Kraemer, James R., Friedlander, Robert R.
• Primary Examiner(s): Jalil; Neveen Abel
• Assistant Examiner(s): KINSAUL, DANIEL W
• Application Number:
  US11/741,538
• Publication Number:
  US 20080208814A1
• Time in Patent Office: 1,222 Days
• Field of Search: None
• US Class Current: 706/47
• CPC Class Codes: G06F 16/2458 Special types of queries, e.g. statistical queries, fuzzy queries or distributed queries
• CPC Class Codes: G06N 7/01 Probabilistic graphical models, e.g. probabilistic networks

Abstract

A computer implemented method, apparatus, and computer usable program code for inferring a probability of a first inference related to a chaotic event. Each datum of the database is conformed to the dimensions of the database. Each datum of the plurality of data has associated metadata and an associated key. The query is used as a frame of reference for the search. The database returns a probability of the correctness of the first inference based on the query and on the data. The probability of the first inference relates to a cause of the chaotic event, an affect of the chaotic event, an effect of the chaotic event, whether an event is related to the chaotic event, a whether an object is related to the chaotic event, and combinations thereof.

Claims

1. A computer implemented method for inferring a probability of a first inference regarding a chaotic event, the computer implemented method comprising:

entering the first inference into the database as a first additional datum;

entering a categorization of the first inference into the database as a second additional datum;

entering a categorization of the probability of the first inference into the database as a third additional datum;

receiving a query at a database regarding a fact regarding a chaotic event, wherein the database comprises a plurality of divergent data, wherein the plurality of divergent data comprise data related to the chaotic event, wherein the plurality of divergent data includes a plurality of cohort data, wherein each datum of the database is conformed to the dimensions of the database, wherein each datum of the plurality of data has associated metadata and an associated key, wherein the associated metadata comprises data regarding cohorts associated with the corresponding datum, data regarding hierarchies associated with the corresponding datum, data regarding a corresponding source of the datum, and data regarding probabilities associated with integrity, reliability, and importance of each associated datum;

establishing the fact as a frame of reference for the query;

applying a first set of rules to the query, wherein the first set of rules are determined for the query according to a second set of rules, wherein the first set of rules determine how the plurality of data are to be compared to the fact, and wherein the first set of rules determine a search space for the query;

executing the query to create the probability of the first inference, wherein the probability of the first inference is determined from comparing the plurality of data according to the first set of rules, and wherein the probability of the first inference relates to one of at least one cause of the chaotic event, at least one proximate cause of the chaotic event, at least one affect of the chaotic event, at least one effect of the chaotic event, a first probability of whether an event is related to the chaotic event, a second probability of whether an object is related to the chaotic event, and combinations thereof; and

storing the probability of the first inference.

2. The computer implemented method of claim 1 wherein the at least one cause comprises a plurality of causes, and wherein each individual cause within the plurality of the causes is unlikely to comprise a primary cause of the chaotic event, wherein the term “

unlikely”

comprises a probability of 49.9 percent or less.

3. The computer implemented method of claim 2 wherein the plurality of causes comprises a chain of causes.

4. The computer implemented method of claim 3 wherein the chaotic event would not have occurred without the chain of causes occurring, and wherein the probability of the first inference further comprises a likelihood of an occurrence of the chain of causes.

5. The computer implemented method of claim 1 further comprising:

using the probability of the first inference to implement an improvement in one of a first procedure related to the chaotic event, a second procedure related to prevention of the chaotic event, and combinations thereof.

6. The computer implemented method of claim 5 wherein the improvement in the first procedure comprises an improvement in a response procedure related to how to respond to the chaotic event.

7. The computer implemented method of claim 5 wherein the improvement in the second procedure comprises an improvement in a regulation governing operation of machinery involved in the chaotic event.

8. The computer implemented method of claim 1 wherein the chaotic event comprises one of an aircraft accident, a maritime accident, a vehicular accident, a railroad accident, an explosion, a chemical plant accident, a nuclear accident, a nuclear explosion, a fire, a pipeline failure, a release of toxic substances, a release of radioactive substances, destruction of a space vehicle, a natural disaster, a building collapse, an attack by at least one human, a cyber attack, and combinations thereof.

9. The computer implemented method of claim 1 wherein the chaotic event comprises an airline accident;

wherein the at least one cause comprises pilot error in following procedures, ground maintenance error in following procedures, weather, and mechanical failure;

wherein the at least one affect comprises alteration of a condition of a structure in a vicinity of the airline accident;

wherein the at least one effect comprises a pattern of debris of a fuselage of an airplane;

wherein the first probability comprises a procedural failure probability that measures how likely a failure to follow an apparently unrelated procedure is one cause of the airline accident; and

wherein the second probability comprises an object probability that measures how likely an object found in a debris field is a part of a fuselage of an airplane involved in the airline accident.

10. The computer implemented method of claim 1 wherein the at least one cause comprises a human related cause.

11. The computer implemented method of claim 10 wherein the human related cause comprises at least one of confusion, excessive workload, insufficient training, hard-to-operate controls, lack of communication, outside pressure to proceed in spite of a misgiving, lack of rest, intoxication, weather related impediments on human activity, failure to notice inoperative safety equipment, and combinations thereof.

12. The computer implemented method of claim 6 further comprising:

executing a second query to create a second probability of a second inference, wherein the second probability of the second inference is determined from comparing the plurality of data according to the set of rules.

13. The computer implemented method of claim 1 further comprising:

responsive to receiving an additional datum in the database, establishing a second query;

applying a third set of rules to the query, wherein the third set of rules are determined for the second query according to a fourth set of rules, and wherein the third set of rules determine how the plurality of data are to be compared to the fact; and

executing the second query to create a second probability of a second inference, wherein the second probability of the second inference is determined from comparing the plurality of data according to the third set of rules.

14. The computer implemented method of claim 1 wherein the metadata further comprises user-defined data.

15. The computer implemented method of claim 1 wherein the set of rules includes rules for adjusting the probability of the first inference based on background data.

19. The computer implemented method of claim 2 wherein the plurality of causes comprises a chain of causes, wherein the chaotic event would not have occurred without the chain of causes occurring, and wherein the probability of the first inference further comprises a likelihood of an occurrence of the chain of causes.

16. A database for use in managing a chaotic event, wherein the database is stored in a computer-readable recordable-type medium, the database comprising:

a plurality of divergent data stored in a data structure on the recordable-type medium, wherein the plurality of divergent data comprises a first inference, a categorization of the first inference, a categorization of a probability of the first inference, data related to the chaotic event, wherein the plurality of divergent data includes a plurality of cohort data, wherein each datum of the database is conformed to the dimensions of the database, wherein each datum of the plurality of data has associated metadata and an associated key, wherein the associated metadata comprises data regarding cohorts associated with the corresponding datum, data regarding hierarchies associated with the corresponding datum, data regarding a corresponding source of the datum, and data regarding probabilities associated with integrity, reliability, and importance of each associated datum;

computer usable program code for establishing a fact related to the chaotic event, received in a query, as a frame of reference for the query;

computer usable program code for applying a first set of rules to the query, wherein the first set of rules are determined for the query according to a second set of rules, wherein the first set of rules determine how the plurality of data are to be compared to the fact, and wherein the first set of rules determine a search space for the query;

computer usable program code for executing the query to create the probability of the first inference, wherein the probability of the first inference is determined from comparing the plurality of data according to the first set of rules, and wherein the probability of the first inference relates to one of at least one cause of the chaotic event, at least one proximate cause of the chaotic event, at least one affect of the chaotic event, at least one effect of the chaotic event, a first probability of whether an event is related to the chaotic event, a second probability of whether an object is related to the chaotic event, and combinations thereof; and

computer usable program code for storing the probability of the first inference.

17. The database of claim 16 further comprising:

a library stored in the recordable type medium, wherein the library includes ontology information and taxonomy information regarding each associated metadata.

18. The database of claim 16 wherein the at least one cause comprises a plurality of causes, and wherein each individual cause within the plurality of the causes is unlikely to comprise a primary cause of the chaotic event wherein the term “

unlikely”

comprises a probability of 49.9 percent or less.