Computerized method and system for estimating an effect on liability of the speed of vehicles in an accident and time and distance traveled by the vehicles

• US 7,792,690 B2
• Filed: 11/27/2002
• Issued: 09/07/2010
• Est. Priority Date: 11/27/2002
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: Computer Sciences Corporation (DXC Technology Company)
• Original Assignee: Computer Sciences Corporation (DXC Technology Company)
• Inventors: Wiesman, Kimberly, Rourke, Kathleen E., Wahlbin, Stephan
• Primary Examiner(s): RINES, ROBERT D
• Application Number:
  US10/306,909
• Publication Number:
  US 20040103010A1
• Time in Patent Office: 2,841 Days
• Field of Search: 705/4
• US Class Current: 705/4
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/08 Insurance

Abstract

Computer-implemented methods and systems for estimating liability for a vehicle accident are provided. In one embodiment, theoretical paths of a reference vehicle and a reacting vehicle may be estimated. In an embodiment, a reacting vehicle reacts to a danger of an accident with the reference vehicle. The opportunity of the reacting vehicle to avoid the accident may be assessed. In certain embodiments, whether the reacting vehicle had an opportunity to avoid the accident at a specified speed may be assessed. A contribution to liability to the reacting vehicle may be estimated based on the opportunity of the reacting vehicle to avoid the accident.

Claims

1. A method of estimating liability for a vehicle accident under consideration, comprising:

a computer system executing program instructions to implement;

associating, in a memory of the computer system, one or more estimates of base liability with one or more sets of characteristics for past or theoretical accidents;

associating, in a memory of the computer system, one or more numerical factor shifts with one or more values of each of;

a speed factor, wherein each of at least one of the values of the speed factor is based on a comparison between a specified speed of a reacting vehicle with a speed for avoiding, wherein the specified speed is an actual speed, a safe speed, or a speed limit for an accident, wherein the speed for avoiding is an approximate speed that allows a reacting vehicle to avoid an accident;

a braking factor, wherein each of at least one of the values of the braking factor is based on whether or not the reacting vehicle attempted to avoid the accident by braking; and

an outcome factor, wherein each of at least one of the values of the outcome factor is based on a manner by which an accident may have been avoided,

wherein the manner of avoiding the accident is one of;

stopping, delaying at a specified speed, or maintaining a specified speed;

estimating, for the vehicle accident under consideration, a theoretical path of a reference vehicle;

estimating, for the vehicle accident under consideration, a theoretical path of a reacting vehicle, wherein the reacting vehicle reacts to a danger of an accident with the reference vehicle;

estimating, using the computer system, a speed for avoiding for the vehicle accident, wherein the speed for avoiding for the vehicle accident under consideration is an approximate speed of the reacting vehicle that allows the vehicle to avoid the vehicle accident;

estimating a base liability for the reacting vehicle in the vehicle accident under consideration, wherein the estimate of base liability for the reacting vehicle is based at least in part on at least one of the estimates of base liability associated with the one or more sets of characteristics for past or theoretical accidents;

assessing an opportunity of the reacting vehicle to avoid the vehicle accident based at least in part on the estimated speed for avoiding the vehicle accident, wherein assessing the opportunity of the reacting vehicle to avoid the vehicle accident comprises;

the computer system comparing a specified speed of the reacting vehicle in the accident under consideration with the estimated speed for avoiding for the vehicle accident under consideration, wherein the specified speed is an actual speed, a safe speed, or a speed limit;

determining, for the vehicle accident under consideration, whether the reacting vehicle in the vehicle accident attempted to avoid the accident by braking or not;

determining, for the vehicle accident under consideration, a value of a speed factor, a value of a braking factor, and a value of an outcome factor, wherein the value of the speed factor is based on the comparison of the specified speed of the reacting vehicle in the accident under consideration with the estimated speed for avoiding for the vehicle accident under consideration, wherein the value of the braking factor is based on whether or not the reacting vehicle attempted to avoid the accident by braking wherein the value of the outcome factor is based on a manner by which an accident may have been avoided, wherein the manner of avoiding the accident is one of;

stopping, delaying at a specified speed, or maintaining a specified speed; and

estimating, using the computer system, a contribution to liability of the reacting vehicle in the vehicle accident under consideration, wherein the contribution to liability of the reacting vehicle includes a numerical adjustment to the liability of the reacting vehicle based on the opportunity of the reacting vehicle to avoid the accident,

wherein estimating the contribution to liability of the reacting vehicle in the vehicle accident under consideration comprises the computer system applying, to the estimate of base liability for the reacting vehicle, one or more numerical factor shifts, wherein at least one of the applied factor shifts is a numerical factor shift from the memory that is associated with values of the speed factor, the braking factor, and the outcome factor in the memory that match the values of the speed factor, the braking factor, and the outcome factor for the accident under consideration.

2. The method of claim 1, wherein at least one vehicle is turning, and wherein the theoretical path of the turning vehicle comprises an ellipse.

3. The method of claim 1, further comprising providing one or more roadway characteristics to the computer system.

4. The method of claim 1, wherein estimating a theoretical path of a reference vehicle comprises estimating a starting point and an intended end point of the theoretical path of the reference vehicle.

5. The method of claim 1, further comprising estimating coordinates of a collision area, wherein the coordinates for the collision area define an area of a particular shape, wherein the defined area includes positions that the reference vehicle and reacting vehicle are likely to occupy at impact, wherein the coordinates of the collision area are estimated at least in part using the theoretical path of the reference vehicle and the theoretical path of the reacting vehicle.

6. The method of claim 1, further comprising estimating a perception point on the theoretical path of the reference vehicle, wherein the perception point is a location on the theoretical path of the reference vehicle when a reacting vehicle should first notice a danger of collision with the first vehicle.

7. The method of claim 1, further comprising estimating a time for a collision point on the reference vehicle to travel from a perception point to a collision area using one or more driver action characteristics.

8. The method of claim 1, further comprising estimating a location of the reacting vehicle using a perception point of the reacting vehicle and one or more driver action characteristics.

9. The method of claim 1, further comprising estimating a time for the reference vehicle to clear a collision area using one or more driver action characteristics.

10. The method of claim 1, further comprising estimating a time for the reacting vehicle to reach a collision area after the reference vehicle clears the collision area using one or more driver action characteristics.

11. The method of claim 1, wherein assessing the opportunity of the reacting vehicle to avoid the accident based on the estimated speed for avoiding the accident comprises comparing the estimated speed for avoiding the accident to an actual speed of the reacting vehicle.

12. The method of claim 1, wherein assessing the opportunity of the reacting vehicle to avoid the accident based on the estimated speed for avoiding the accident comprises comparing the estimated speed for avoiding the accident to a safe speed of the reacting vehicle.

13. The method of claim 1, wherein assessing the opportunity of the reacting vehicle to avoid the accident based on the estimated speed for avoiding the accident comprises comparing the estimated speed for avoiding the accident to a speed limit of the reacting vehicle.

14. The method of claim 1, wherein the speed for avoiding the accident comprises an approximate maximum speed at which the reacting vehicle could avoid the accident by stopping before the accident.

15. The method of claim 1, wherein the value of the speed factor associated in the memory with at least one of the numerical factor shifts is based on whether a specified speed is less than or equal to a speed to avoid.

16. The method of claim 1, wherein the value of the speed factor associated in the memory with at least one of the numerical factor shifts is:

actual speed is less than or equal to brake-to-delay speed.

17. The method of claim 1, wherein the value of the braking factor associated in the memory with at least one of the numerical factor shifts is one of:

reacting vehicle did brake;

or reacting vehicle did not brake.

18. The method of claim 1, wherein the value of the outcome factor associated in the memory with at least one of the numerical factor shifts is one of:

stop;

delay;

or maintain.

19. The method of claim 1, wherein a first numerical factor shift is associated in memory with each of at least two values of the speed factor, a second numerical factor shift is associated in memory with each of at least two values of the braking factor, and a third numerical factor shift is associated in memory with each of at least two values of the outcome factor, wherein the at least one numerical factor shift applied to the base liability is the sum of the first numerical factor shift, the second numerical factor shift, and the third numerical shift, wherein the first numerical factor shift, the second numerical factor shift, and the third numerical shift are associated with values of the speed factor, the braking factor, and the outcome factor that match the value of the speed factor, the braking factor, and the outcome factor for the vehicle accident under consideration.

20. The method of claim 1, wherein a numerical factor shift is associated in the memory with each of at least two different combinations of values for the speed factor, the braking factor, and the outcome factor.

21. The method of claim 1, wherein a numerical factor shift is associated in the memory with each of a plurality of cases, wherein each of at least two of the plurality of cases corresponds to a combination of values for a speed factor, a braking factor, and an outcome factor.

22. The method of claim 1, wherein associating, in the memory of the computer system, one or more numerical factor shifts with the one or more values comprises:

associating, in the memory of the computer system, one or more numerical factor shifts with each of at least two of a plurality of cases, wherein each of at least two of the cases includes;

a comparison between a specified speed of a reacting vehicle with a speed for avoiding, wherein the specified speed is an actual speed, a safe speed, or a speed limit, wherein the speed for avoiding is an approximate speed of the reacting vehicle that would allow the reacting vehicle to avoid the vehicle accident;

whether or not a reacting vehicle attempt to avoid the vehicle accident by braking; and

a manner by which a vehicle accident may have been avoided, wherein the manner of avoiding the vehicle accident is one of;

stopping, delaying at a specified speed, or maintaining at the specified speed; and

wherein estimating the contribution to liability of the reacting vehicle comprises applying, to a base liability, a numerical factor shift in the memory that is associated with a case, from among the plurality of cases, that matches the values of a speed factor, a braking factor, and an outcome factor for the vehicle accident under consideration.

23. The method of claim 22, wherein, for at least one of the cases, the speed for avoiding is a maintain-to-delay speed, wherein the maintain-to-delay speed for the vehicle accident is an approximate maximum speed to avoid the vehicle accident by maintaining a constant rate of speed.

24. The method of claim 22, wherein, for at least one of the cases, the speed for avoiding is a brake-to-delay speed, wherein the brake-to-delay speed for the vehicle accident is an approximate maximum speed to avoid the vehicle accident by braking without stopping.

40. The method of claim 1,

wherein estimating a theoretical path of a reference vehicle comprises estimating a theoretical path of at least one point on the reference vehicle;

wherein estimating a theoretical path of a reacting vehicle comprises estimating a theoretical path of at least one point on a reacting vehicle; and

wherein assessing the opportunity of the reacting vehicle to avoid the accident comprises using the theoretical path of at least one point.

41. The method of claim 40, wherein at least one point on the reference vehicle comprises a collision point.

42. The method of claim 40, wherein at least one point on the reacting vehicle comprises a collision point on a reacting vehicle.

43. The method of claim 40, wherein at least one point comprises a first point of a reference vehicle to enter a collision area.

44. The method of claim 40, wherein at least one point on the reacting vehicle comprises a first point of the reacting vehicle to enter a collision area.

45. The method of claim 40, wherein at least one point on the reference vehicle comprises a last point of the reference vehicle to exit a collision area.

46. The method of claim 40, wherein at least one point on the reacting vehicle comprises a last point of the reacting vehicle to exit a collision area.

25. A system configured to estimate liability, comprising:

a CPU;

a data memory coupled to the CPU; and

a system memory coupled to the CPU, wherein the system memory is configured to store one or more computer programs executable by the CPU, and wherein the computer programs are executable to implement a method for estimating liability for a vehicle accident under consideration, the method comprising;

associating, in a memory of the computer system, one or more estimates of base liability with one or more sets of characteristics for past or theoretical accidents;

associating, in a memory of the computer system, one or more numerical factor shifts with one or more values of each of;

a speed factor, wherein each of at least one of the values of the speed factor is based on a comparison between a specified speed of a reacting vehicle with a speed for avoiding, wherein the specified speed is an actual speed, a safe speed, or a speed limit for an accident, wherein the speed for avoiding is an approximate speed that allows a reacting vehicle to avoid an accident;

a braking factor, wherein each of at least one of the values of the braking factor is based on whether or not the reacting vehicle attempted to avoid the accident by braking; and

an outcome factor, wherein each of at least one of the values of the outcome factor is based on a manner by which an accident may have been avoided, wherein the manner of avoiding the accident is one of;

stopping, delaying at a specified speed, or maintaining a specified speed;

estimating, for the vehicle accident under consideration, a theoretical path of a reference vehicle;

estimating, for the vehicle accident under consideration, a theoretical path of a reacting vehicle, wherein the reacting vehicle reacts to a danger of an accident with the reference vehicle;

estimating a speed for avoiding for the vehicle accident, wherein the speed for avoiding the accident for the vehicle accident under consideration is an approximate speed of the reacting vehicle that allows the reacting vehicle to avoid the accident;

estimating a base liability for the reacting vehicle in the vehicle accident under consideration, wherein the estimate of base liability for the reacting vehicle is based at least in part on at least one of the estimates of base liability associated with the one or more sets of characteristics for past or theoretical accidents;

assessing an opportunity of the reacting vehicle to avoid the vehicle accident based at least in part on the estimated speed for avoiding the vehicle accident, wherein assessing the opportunity of the reacting vehicle to avoid the vehicle accident comprises;

comparing a specified speed of the reacting vehicle in the accident under consideration with the estimated speed for avoiding for the vehicle accident under consideration, wherein the specified speed is an actual speed, a safe speed, or a speed limit;

determining, for the vehicle accident under consideration, whether the reacting vehicle in the vehicle accident attempted to avoid the accident by braking or not;

determining, for the vehicle accident under consideration, a value of a speed factor, a value of a braking factor, and a value of an outcome factor, wherein the value of the speed factor is based on the comparison of the specified speed of the reacting vehicle in the accident under consideration with the estimated speed for avoiding for the vehicle accident under consideration, wherein the value of the braking factor is based on whether or not the reacting vehicle attempted to avoid the accident by braking wherein the value of the outcome factor is based on a manner by which an accident may have been avoided, wherein the manner of avoiding the accident is one of;

stopping, delaying at a specified speed, or maintaining a specified speed; and

estimating a contribution to liability of the reacting vehicle in the vehicle accident under consideration, wherein the contribution to liability of the reacting vehicle includes a numerical adjustment to the liability of the reacting vehicle based on the opportunity of the reacting vehicle to avoid the accident,

wherein estimating the contribution to liability of the reacting vehicle for the vehicle accident under consideration comprises applying, to the estimate of base liability for the reacting vehicle, or more numerical factor shifts, wherein at least one of the applied factor shifts is a numerical factor shift from the memory that is associated with values of the speed factor, the braking factor, and the outcome factor in the memory that match the values of the speed factor, the braking factor, and the outcome factor for the accident under consideration.

26. The system of claim 25, wherein the method further comprises estimating coordinates of a collision area, wherein the collision area comprises a location where the reference vehicle and reacting vehicle are likely to occupy at impact.

27. The system of claim 25, wherein the method further comprises estimating a perception point on the theoretical path of the reference vehicle, wherein the perception point is a location on the theoretical path of the reference vehicle when a reacting vehicle should first notice a danger of collision with the first vehicle.

28. The system of claim 25, wherein assessing the opportunity of the reacting vehicle to avoid the accident comprises comparing a speed to avoid the accident to an actual speed of the reacting vehicle.

29. A tangible, computer readable storage medium comprising program instructions stored thereon, wherein the program instructions are computer-executable to implement a method for estimating liability for a vehicle accident under consideration, the method comprising:

associating, in a memory of the computer system, one or more estimates of base liability with one or more sets of characteristics for past or theoretical accidents;

associating, in a memory of the computer system, one or more numerical factor shifts with one or more values of each of;

a speed factor, wherein each of at least one of the values of the speed factor is based on a comparison between a specified speed of a reacting vehicle with a speed for avoiding, wherein the specified speed is an actual speed, a safe speed, or a speed limit for an accident, wherein the speed for avoiding is an approximate speed that allows a reacting vehicle to avoid an accident;

a braking factor, wherein each of at least one of the values of the braking factor is based on whether or not the reacting vehicle attempted to avoid the accident by braking; and

an outcome factor, wherein each of at least one of the values of the outcome factor is based on a manner by which an accident may have been avoided, wherein the manner of avoiding the accident is one of;

stopping, delaying at a specified speed, or maintaining a specified speed;

estimating, for the vehicle accident under consideration, a theoretical path of a reference vehicle;

estimating, for the vehicle accident under consideration, a theoretical path of a reacting vehicle, wherein the reacting vehicle reacts to a danger of an accident with the reference vehicle;

estimating a speed for avoiding for the vehicle accident, wherein the speed for avoiding for the vehicle accident under consideration is an approximate speed of the reacting vehicle that allows the reacting vehicle to avoid the vehicle accident;

estimating a base liability for the reacting vehicle in the vehicle accident under consideration, wherein the estimate of base liability for the reacting vehicle is based at least in part on at least one of the estimates of base liability associated with the one or more sets of characteristics for past or theoretical accidents;

assessing an opportunity of the reacting vehicle to avoid the vehicle accident based at least in part on the estimated speed for avoiding the vehicle accident, wherein assessing the opportunity of the reacting vehicle to avoid the vehicle accident comprises;

comparing a specified speed of the reacting vehicle in the accident under consideration with the estimated speed for avoiding for the vehicle accident under consideration, wherein the specified speed is an actual speed, a safe speed, or a speed limit;

determining, for the vehicle accident under consideration, whether the reacting vehicle in the vehicle accident attempted to avoid the accident by braking or not;

determining, for the vehicle accident under consideration, a value of a speed factor, a value of a braking factor, and a value of an outcome factor, wherein the value of the speed factor is based on the comparison of the specified speed of the reacting vehicle in the accident under consideration with the estimated speed for avoiding for the vehicle accident under consideration, wherein the value of the braking factor is based on whether or not the reacting vehicle attempted to avoid the accident by braking wherein the value of the outcome factor is based on a manner by which an accident may have been avoided, wherein the manner of avoiding the accident is one of;

stopping, delaying at a specified speed, or maintaining a specified speed; and

estimating a contribution to liability of the reacting vehicle in the vehicle accident under consideration, wherein the contribution to liability of the reacting vehicle in the vehicle accident under consideration includes a numerical adjustment to the liability of the reacting vehicle based on the opportunity of the reacting vehicle to avoid the accident,

wherein estimating the contribution to liability of the reacting vehicle comprises applying, to the estimate of base liability for the reacting vehicle, one or more numerical factor shifts, wherein at least one of the applied factor shift is a numerical factor shift from the memory that is associated with values of the speed factor, the braking factor, and the outcome factor in the memory that match the values of the speed factor, the braking factor, and the outcome factor for the accident under consideration.

30. The computer readable storage medium of claim 29, wherein the computer instructions are further executable to estimate coordinates of a collision area, wherein the collision area comprises a location where the reference vehicle and reacting vehicle are likely to occupy at impact.

31. The computer readable storage medium of claim 29, wherein the computer instructions are further executable to estimate a perception point on the theoretical path of the reference vehicle, wherein the perception point is a location on the theoretical path of the reference vehicle when a reacting vehicle should first notice a danger of collision with the first vehicle.

32. A method of estimating liability for a vehicle accident under consideration, comprising:

a computer system executing program instructions to implement;

associating, in a memory of the computer system, one or more estimates of base liability with one or more sets of characteristics for past or theoretical accidents;

associating, in a memory of the computer system, one or more numerical factor shifts with one or more values of each of;

a speed factor, wherein each of at least one of the values of the speed factor is based on a comparison between a specified speed of a reacting vehicle with a speed for avoiding, wherein the specified speed is an actual speed, a safe speed, or a speed limit for an accident, wherein the speed for avoiding is an approximate speed that allows a reacting vehicle to avoid an accident;

a braking factor, wherein each of at least one of the values of the braking factor is based on whether or not the reacting vehicle attempted to avoid the accident by braking; and

an outcome factor, wherein each of at least one of the values of the outcome factor is based on a manner by which an accident may have been avoided, wherein the manner of avoiding the accident is one of;

stopping, delaying at a specified speed, or maintaining a specified speed;

providing a specified speed for a vehicle involved in the vehicle accident under consideration;

estimating, using the computer system, a speed for avoiding for the vehicle accident, wherein the speed for avoiding comprises an approximate speed of a reacting vehicle that allows the vehicle an opportunity to avoid the accident;

estimating a base liability for the vehicle in the vehicle accident under consideration, wherein the estimate of base liability for the vehicle is based at least in part on at least one of the estimates of base liability associated with the one or more sets of characteristics for past or theoretical accidents;

assessing an opportunity of the vehicle to avoid the vehicle accident based at least in part on the estimated speed for avoiding the vehicle accident, wherein assessing the opportunity of the vehicle to avoid the vehicle accident comprises;

the computer system comparing the estimated speed for avoiding the vehicle accident under consideration to the specified speed;

determining, for the vehicle accident under consideration, whether the vehicle in the vehicle accident attempted to avoid the accident by braking or not;

determining, for the vehicle accident under consideration, a value of a speed factor, a value of a braking factor, and a value of an outcome factor, wherein the value of the speed factor is based on the comparison of the specified speed of the vehicle in the accident under consideration with the estimated speed for avoiding for the vehicle accident under consideration, wherein the value of the braking factor is based on whether or not the vehicle attempted to avoid the accident by braking wherein the value of the outcome factor is based on a mariner by which an accident may have been avoided, wherein the manner of avoiding the accident is one of;

stopping, delaying at a specified speed, or maintaining a specified speed; and

estimating, using the computer system, an effect on liability of the vehicle in the vehicle accident under consideration relative to the total liability for the accident, wherein the effect on liability comprises a numerical adjustment to the estimate of base liability of the vehicle based on the opportunity to avoid the accident,

wherein the numerical adjustment comprises one or more numerical factor shifts, wherein the at least one of the numerical factor shifts is a numerical factor shift from the memory that is associated with values of the speed factor, the braking factor, and the outcome factor in the memory that match the values of the speed factor, the braking factor, and the outcome factor for the accident under consideration.

33. The method of claim 32, wherein the vehicle had the opportunity to avoid the accident by delaying enough at the specified speed of the vehicle.

34. The method of claim 32, wherein the vehicle had the opportunity to avoid the accident by maintaining the specified speed of the vehicle.

35. The method of claim 32, wherein the effect on liability comprises a factor comprising a contribution based on whether the vehicle had the opportunity to stop, delay, or maintain the specified speed to avoid the accident.

36. The method of claim 32, wherein the effect on liability comprises a factor comprising a contribution based on braking to avoid the accident.

37. The method of claim 32, wherein the speed for avoiding the accident comprises an approximate maximum speed at which the reacting vehicle could avoid the accident by stopping before the accident.

38. The method of claim 32, wherein the speed for avoiding comprises an approximate maximum speed at which the reacting vehicle could avoid the accident by braking without stopping.

39. The method of claim 32, wherein the speed for avoiding comprises an approximate maximum speed at which the reacting vehicle could avoid the accident by maintaining the speed for avoiding.