Baseline comparative leading indicator analysis

• US 7,797,130 B1
• Filed: 12/20/2007
• Issued: 09/14/2010
• Est. Priority Date: 12/20/2007
• Status: Expired due to Fees

• Current Assignee: The United States of America As Represented By The Secretary of Agriculture
• Original Assignee: the united states of america as represented by the secretary of the navy
• Inventors: Everson, Daniel P., Bi, Naipei P., Nguyen, Phong Hua, Silberg, Eric J.
• Primary Examiner(s): TSAI, CAROL S W
• Application Number:
  US12/006,754
• Time in Patent Office: 999 Days
• Field of Search: 702/60, 702/181, 702/179, 702/183, 702/84, 702/35, 700/108, 700/121, 700/109, 700/110, 700/111, 714/37, 714/48
• US Class Current: 702/179
• CPC Class Codes: G06F 17/18 for evaluating statistical data , e.g. average values, frequency distributions, probability functions, regression analysis forecasting specially adapted for a specific administrative, business or logistic context G06Q10/04
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/04 Forecasting or optimisation specially adapted for administrative or management purposes, e.g. linear programming or "cutting stock problem" market predictions or forecasting for commercial activities G06Q30/0202

Abstract

According to typical inventive practice, a baseline describing a statistical distribution is established for a set of historical occurrences of an event. Comparison is made between the baseline and at least one current occurrence of the same event. Any current occurrence that is anomalous vis-à-vis the baseline is considered a possible leading indicator. According to some inventive embodiments of graphical presentation of such comparison, at least one graphical baseline comparative display component is rendered that includes a “bar” (describing a historical statistical distribution with respect to a criterion pertaining to occurrence of an event) and a “slider” (describing one or more current occurrences of the event). The bar includes at least one band representing a statistical mean range, and at least one band representing a statistical outlier range. Situation of the slider along the bar indicates whether and to what extent the current occurrence(s) is/are anomalous vis-à-vis the baseline.

Claims

1. A method for evaluating relative performance of an activity, the method comprising:

formulating a baseline, said baseline representing a statistical distribution for plural historical performances of an activity; and

comparing at least one subject performance of said activity to said baseline, said comparing including determining the existence of anomalousness of said at least one subject performance with respect to said plural historical performances;

wherein said baseline includes at least one statistical normative range and at least one statistical non-normative range, and wherein said comparing includes graphically displaying said baseline and said at least one subject performance, said graphically displayed baseline visually differentiating between each said statistical normative range and each said statistical non-normative range, each said graphically displayed subject performance visually indicating situation upon said baseline in either of a said statistical normative range and a said statistical non-normative range.

2. The method for evaluating of claim 1, wherein if said anomalousness is determined to exist, the method further comprises recording at least one instance of anomalousness as being suitable for further investigation as a possible leading indicator.

3. The method for evaluating of claim 1, wherein said graphical displaying of said baseline and said at least one subject performance includes:

displaying at least one bar, each said bar corresponding to a criterion for performance of an activity, each said bar representing a said baseline that describes a statistical distribution for plural historical performances of an activity with respect to said criterion, each said bar including plural bands, at least one said band representing a said statistical normative range, at least one said band representing a said statistical non-normative range;

displaying at least one slider, each said slider being visually situated upon a said bar in one of a said statistical normative range and a said statistical non-normative range, each said slider representing a subject performance of said activity with respect to said criterion to which corresponds said bar upon which said slider is visually situated.

4. The method for evaluating of claim 3, wherein in each said bar:

all of said bands are visually differentiated from each other by at least one visual characteristic selected from the group consisting of color, shade and pattern;

said slider is visually differentiated from every said band by at least one visual characteristic selected from the group consisting of color, shade and pattern.

5. The method for evaluating of claim 1, wherein said anomalousness exists if said at least one subject performance is encompassed by said at least one statistical non-normative range.

6. The method for evaluating of claim 1 wherein, if said at least one subject performance is encompassed by said at least one statistical non-normative range, said comparing includes ascertaining the degree of said anomalousness with respect to said at least one statistical normative range, said ascertaining the degree of said anomalousness including considering the situation of said at least one current performance relative to said at least one statistical normative range.

7. The method for evaluating of claim 1, wherein:

at least one said statistical normative range is delimited by a maximum of a first standard deviational value with respect to a statistical mean;

at least one said statistical non-normative range is delimited by a minimum of said first standard deviational value with respect to said statistical mean.

8. The method for evaluating of claim 1, wherein:

at least one said statistical normative range is delimited by a maximum of one standard deviation from a statistical mean;

at least one said statistical non-normative range is delimited by a minimum of one standard deviation from the statistical mean.

9. The method for evaluating of claim 8, wherein:

at least one said statistical non-normative range is delimited by a minimum of one standard deviation from the statistical mean and by a maximum of two standard deviations from the statistical mean;

at least one said statistical non-normative range is delimited by a minimum of two standard deviations from the statistical mean.

10. The method for evaluating of claim 9, wherein:

if said subject performance is encompassed by a said statistical normative range that is delimited by a maximum of one standard deviation from the statistical mean, said comparing further includes designating said subject performance as being non-anomalous;

if said subject performance is encompassed by a said statistical normative range that is delimited by a minimum of one standard deviation from the statistical mean and by a maximum of two standard deviations from the statistical mean, said comparing further includes designating said subject as being moderately anomalous;

if said subject performance is encompassed by a said statistical normative range that is delimited by a minimum of two standard deviations from the statistical mean, said comparing further includes designating said subject as being severely anomalous.

11. The method for evaluating of claim 10, wherein the method further comprises recording at least one said instance of anomalous performance as being suitable for further investigation as a possible leading indicator.

12. The method for evaluating of claim 1, wherein:

at least one said statistical normative range is delimited by a maximum of one standard deviational value with respect to a statistical mean;

at least one said statistical non-normative range is delimited by a minimum of one standard deviational value with respect to the statistical mean and by a maximum of two standard deviational values with respect to the statistical mean;

at least one said statistical non-normative range is delimited by a minimum of two standard deviational values with respect to the statistical mean.

13. The method for evaluating of claim 12, wherein:

if said subject performance is encompassed by a said statistical normative range that is delimited by a maximum of one standard deviational value with respect to a statistical mean, said comparing further includes designating said subject performance as being non-anomalous;

if said subject performance is encompassed by a said statistical normative range that is delimited by a minimum of one standard deviational value with respect to the statistical mean and by a maximum of two standard deviational values with respect to the statistical mean, said comparing further includes designating said subject as being moderately anomalous;

if said subject performance is encompassed by a said statistical normative range that is delimited by a minimum of two standard deviational values with respect to the statistical mean, said comparing further includes designating said subject as being severely anomalous.

14. A computer program product for residence in memory of a computer, said computer program product comprising a computer useable medium having computer program logic recorded thereon, said computer program logic being embodied in computer code for enabling said computer to evaluate relative performance of an activity, said evaluation of relative performance including:

formulating a baseline, said baseline representing a statistical distribution for plural historical performances of an activity; and

comparing at least one subject performance of said activity to said baseline, said comparing including determining the existence of anomalousness of said at least one subject performance with respect to said plural historical performances;

wherein said baseline includes at least one statistical normative range and at least one statistical non-normative range, and wherein said comparing includes graphically displaying said baseline and said at least one subject performance, said graphically displayed baseline visually differentiating between each said statistical normative range and each said statistical non-normative range, each said graphically displayed subject performance visually indicating situation upon said baseline in either of a said statistical normative range and a said statistical non-normative range.

15. The computer program product of claim 14, said evaluation of relative performance including recording each instance of anomalousness for further investigation as a possible leading indicator.

16. The computer program product of claim 14, wherein said graphical displaying of said baseline and said at least one subject performance includes:

displaying at least one bar, each said bar corresponding to a criterion for performance of an activity, each said bar representing a said baseline that describes a statistical distribution for plural historical performances of an activity with respect to said criterion, each said bar including plural bands, at least one said band representing a said statistical normative range, at least one said band representing a said statistical non-normative range;

displaying at least one slider, each said slider being visually situated upon a said bar in one of a said statistical normative range and a said statistical non-normative range, each said slider representing a subject performance of said activity with respect to said criterion to which corresponds said bar upon which said slider is visually situated.

17. The computer program product of claim 16, wherein in each said bar:

all of said bands are visually differentiated from each other by at least one visual characteristic selected from the group consisting of color, shade and pattern;

said slider is visually differentiated from every said band by at least one visual characteristic selected from the group consisting of color, shade and pattern.