Method and apparatus for improved forecasting using multiple sources

• US 7,797,182 B2
• Filed: 12/31/2002
• Issued: 09/14/2010
• Est. Priority Date: 12/31/2002
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: Oracle America, Inc. (Oracle Corporation)
• Original Assignee: Siebel Systems Inc. (Oracle Corporation)
• Inventors: Summers, Jeffrey McCormick, Lloyd, Stratton Carpenter, Lindquist, Erik Anson
• Primary Examiner(s): Sterrett; Jonathan G.
• Assistant Examiner(s): MANSFIELD, THOMAS L
• Application Number:
  US10/335,016
• Publication Number:
  US 20070265904A1
• Time in Patent Office: 2,814 Days
• Field of Search: 705/7, 705/8, 705/10, 705/11
• US Class Current: 705/7.31
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06375 Prediction of business process outcome or impact based on a proposed change
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/0639 Performance analysis of employees; Performance analysis of enterprise or organisation operations
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06398 Performance of employee with respect to a job function
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/02 Marketing; Price estimation or determination; Fundraising
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0202 Market predictions or forecasting for commercial activities

Abstract

A method and apparatus for providing a triangulated forecast comprises receiving a sales forecasts from at least three sources, and triangulating the sales forecasts to obtain a triangulated forecast. The method further comprises presenting the resulting triangulated forecast.

Claims

1. A computer-implemented method comprising:

receiving a plurality of at least three sales forecasts wherein

the plurality of sales forecasts comprises a first sales forecast of a first type, a second sales forecast of a second type, and a third sales forecast of a third type,

the first type, the second type, and the third type are each of a type from the group consisting of;

a field assessment type, a pipeline forecast type, and a historical forecast type,

forecasts of the field assessment type are based at least in part on a plurality of current sales opportunities,

forecasts of the pipeline forecast type are based at least in part on sales opportunities at a plurality of stages in a sales process, and comparisons of the sales opportunities at each of the plurality of stages with corresponding targets for each of the plurality of stages, and

forecasts of the historical forecast type are based at least in part on historical data from a system that stores historical sales information;

adjusting, using a computer processor, the first sales forecast to produce a triangulated forecast, wherein

the adjusting the first sales forecast is performed in response to the second sales forecast and in response to the third sales forecast, and the adjusting the first sales forecast comprises

performing an error correction by

comparing the first sales forecast to the second sales forecast, and

determining an accuracy of at least two of the plurality of sales forecasts based at least in part on the historical sales information; and

storing the triangulated forecast in a memory.

2. The computer-implemented method of claim 1, wherein the sales forecasts comprise a first field assessment.

3. The computer-implemented method of claim 2, wherein the first field assessment further comprises an assessment from at least one of a partner, a channel, and a call center.

4. The computer-implemented method of claim 2, further comprising:

making the first field assessment, wherein the making comprises displaying a plurality of current opportunities to a sales representative; and

prompting the sales representative to identify, for each of the current opportunities,

a current stage,

an expected closing date, and

an amount.

5. The computer-implemented method of claim 4, further comprising:

if the sales representative is not available to make the first field assessment on schedule, auto-generating the first field assessment for the sales representative, based at least in part on each of the current opportunities.

6. The computer-implemented method of claim 3, further comprising:

submitting the first field assessment to a manager; and

permitting the manager to make alterations to field assessments of each sales representative in a group of the manager.

7. The computer-implemented method of claim 6, further comprising:

automatically performing a currency conversion into a local currency.

8. The computer-implemented method of claim 1, wherein the sales forecasts comprises a first pipeline forecast.

9. The computer-implemented method of claim 8, further comprising:

making the first pipeline forecast, wherein the making comprises

calculating sales opportunities at a plurality of stages in the sales process;

comparing the sales opportunities at each of the plurality of stages with corresponding targets for each of the plurality of stages; and

generating the first pipeline forecast showing the relationship of the sales opportunities and the corresponding targets.

10. The computer-implemented method of claim 9, further comprising:

generating a visual display of a pipeline, comprising visual indications of whether at least one of the targets is met.

11. The computer-implemented method of claim 1, wherein the sales forecasts comprise a first historical forecast from the system that stores historical sales information.

12. The computer-implemented method of claim 11, further comprising:

making the first historical forecast, wherein the making comprises

selecting a time period,

retrieving historical data from the system that stores historical sales information,

comparing each of the sales forecasts to the historical data, and

determining an accuracy of each of the sales forecasts based at least in part on the historical data.

13. The computer-implemented method of claim 12, further comprising:

adjusting the historical data for one or more of the following;

seasonality, demographic skew, geographic skew, time series, data anomalies, and data outliers.

14. The computer-implemented method of claim 1, wherein:

the sales forecasts and the triangulated forecast are generated by a common computing system.

15. The computer-implemented method of claim 1, further comprising:

adjusting the sales forecasts based at least in part on seasonality; and

adjusting the sales forecasts for data outliers.

16. The computer-implemented method of claim 1, wherein the sales forecasts comprise accounting for recurring revenues.

19. The computer-implemented method of claim 1, wherein the triangulated forecast provides visibility into each of the sales forecasts, down to data of each of a plurality of sales representative.

20. The computer-implemented method of claim 1, further comprising:

creating a combined output display that comprises visual representations of the triangulated forecast, and the at least three sales forecasts; and

permitting a user to view details of each of the at least three sales forecasts.

21. The computer-implemented method of claim 1, wherein the triangulated forecast is configured to provide access to each of the sales forecasts by virtue of being configured to provide transparency at any level of the sales forecast.

22. The computer-implemented method of claim 1, wherein the performing the error correction further comprises:

comparing a field assessment to a pipeline assessment; and

comparing the pipeline assessment to a historical assessment.

26. The computer-implemented method of claim 2, further comprising:

receiving and applying manual adjustments to the adjusted first sales forecast.

27. The computer-implemented method of claim 4, further comprising:

if the sales representative has not on schedule completed the first field assessment, auto-generating the first field assessment for the sales representative, based at least in part on a previous field assessment from the sales representative.

28. The computer-implemented method of claim 9, wherein the making the first pipeline forecast comprises a predictive analysis of a sales opportunity among the sales opportunities, and the predictive analysis is based at least in part on data about sales opportunities that are similar to the first sales opportunity.

29. The computer-implemented method of claim 9, wherein the making the first pipeline forecast comprises analysis using historical data to determine trends and sales coverage.

30. The computer-implemented method of claim 1, further comprising:

generating an evaluation of the triangulated forecast, wherein the generating the evaluation comprises

comparing the triangulated forecast to historical data.

31. The computer-implemented method of claim 1, wherein:

the adjusting the first sales forecast comprises eliminating data anomalies from the first sales forecast based at least in part on the second sales forecast.

32. The computer-implemented method of claim 1, wherein:

the adjusting the first sales forecast comprises eliminating outlying data points from the first sales forecast based at least in part on the second sales forecast.

33. The computer-implemented method of claim 1, wherein the sales forecasts comprise a first field assessment, a first pipeline forecast, and a first historical forecast, the method further comprising:

making the first field assessment, wherein the making the first field assessment comprises

displaying a plurality of current opportunities to a sales representative, and

prompting the sales representative to identify a current stage, an expected closing date, and an amount for each of the current opportunities;

making the first pipeline forecast, wherein the making the first pipeline forecast comprises

calculating sales opportunities at a plurality of stages in the sales process,

comparing the sales opportunities at each of the plurality of stages with corresponding targets for each of the plurality of stages, and

generating the first pipeline forecast showing the relationship of the sales opportunities and the corresponding targets; and

making the first historical forecast, wherein the making the first historical forecast comprises

selecting a time period, and

retrieving historical data from a system that stores historical information for a time period comparable to the selected time period.

35. The computer-implemented method of claim 1, wherein the adjusting the first sales forecast comprises:

displaying a plurality of current opportunities to a sales representative;

prompting the sales representative to identify, for each current opportunity,

a current stage,

an expected closing date, and

an amount;

if the sales representative has not on schedule generated a field assessment, auto-generating the field assessment for the sales representative based at least in part on a previous field assessment from the sales representative;

calculating sales opportunities at a plurality of stages in the sales process;

comparing the sales opportunities at each of the plurality of stages with corresponding targets for each of the plurality of stages; and

generating a pipeline assessment based at least in part on a relationship of the sales opportunities and the corresponding targets.

17. A computer-implemented method comprising:

generating a forecast, wherein the generating the forecast comprises

prompting personnel to generate a field assessment, wherein the field assessment is based at least in part on a plurality of current sales opportunities,

generating a pipeline assessment, wherein the pipeline assessment is based at least in part on sales opportunities at a plurality of stages in a sales process,

retrieving historical data from a system that stores historical information,

generating a historical evaluation, based at least in part on the historical data, of one or more of the field assessment or the pipeline assessment, wherein the generating the historical evaluation comprises

determining, based at least in part on the historical data, an accuracy of the field assessment and an accuracy of the pipeline assessment, and

creating, using a computer processor, a triangulated final assessment based at least in part on the field assessment, the pipeline assessment, and the historical evaluation, wherein

the creating is usable by a user interface to display information, and

the information is based at least in part on the triangulated final assessment; and

storing the triangulated final assessment in a memory.

18. The computer-implemented method of claim 17, wherein the assessments are multi-channel and cover potential income sources, comprising partners, channels, call centers, services, maintenance fees, and recurring revenues.

34. The computer-implemented method of claim 17, wherein the generating the forecast comprises:

displaying a plurality of current opportunities to a sales representative;

prompting the sales representative to identify, for each current opportunity, a current stage, an expected closing date, and an amount;

if the sales representative has not on schedule generated the field assessment, auto-generating the field assessment for the sales representative based at least in part on a previous field assessment from the sales representative;

calculating sales opportunities at a plurality of stages in the sales process;

comparing the sales opportunities at each of the plurality of stages with corresponding targets for each of the plurality of stages;

generating the pipeline assessment based at least in part on a relationship of the sales opportunities and the corresponding targets;

selecting a time period, wherein the historical data corresponds to the time period; and

comparing the field assessment to the historical data.

23. A system comprising:

a memory;

a computer processor configured to execute instructions stored in the memory, wherein the instructions are executable for

generating a triangulated forecast, wherein the generating the triangulated forecast comprises

generating at least three sales forecasts comprising a field assessment, a pipeline assessment, and a historical assessment, wherein

the field assessment is based at least in part on a plurality of current sales opportunities,

the pipeline assessment is based at least in part on sales opportunities at a plurality of stages in a sales process, and

the historical assessment is based at least in part on historical data from a system that stores historical sales information, and

performing an error correction by

comparing the field assessment to the historical assessment, and

determining an accuracy of at least two of the at least three sales forecasts based at least in part on historical sales information; and

means for generating an output, wherein

the means for generating the output is coupled to the computer processor,

the means for generating the output is configured to create a combined output display based at least in part on the error correction, and

the combined output display comprises visual representations of

the triangulated forecast, and

each of the at least three sales forecasts.

24. A computer-readable medium comprising:

a computer-readable storage medium;

instructions encoded on the computer-readable storage medium and executable by a computer processor for generating a triangulated forecast, wherein the generating the triangulated forecast comprises acts of

receiving a plurality of at least three sales forecasts wherein

the plurality of sales forecasts comprises a first sales forecast of a first type, a second sales forecast of a second type, and a third sales forecast of a third type,

the first type, the second type, and the third type are each of a type from the group consisting of;

a field assessment type, a pipeline forecast type, and a historical forecast type,

forecasts of the field assessment type are based at least in part on a plurality of current sales opportunities,

forecasts of the pipeline forecast type are based at least in part on sales opportunities at a plurality of stages in a sales process, and

comparisons of the sales opportunities at each of the plurality of stages with corresponding targets for each of the plurality of stages, and

forecasts of the historical forecast type are based at least in part on historical data from a system that stores historical sales information; and

adjusting, using the computer processor, the first sales forecast to produce a triangulated forecast, wherein

the adjusting the first sales forecast is performed in response to the second sales forecast and in response to the third sales forecast, and the adjusting the first sales forecast comprises

performing an error correction by  

comparing the first sales forecast to the second sales forecast, and  

determining an accuracy of at least two of the plurality of sales forecasts based at least in part on the historical sales information.

25. The computer-readable medium of claim 24, wherein the triangulated forecast is configured to provide access to each of the sales forecasts by virtue of being configured to provide transparency at any level of the sales forecast.

36. A computer-implemented method comprising:

displaying a first opportunity to a sales representative;

prompting the sales representative to identify a first stage, an expected closing date, and an amount for the first opportunity;

obtaining a field assessment in response to the prompting, wherein the field assessment is based at least in part on a plurality of current sales opportunities;

obtaining a historical assessment, wherein the historical assessment is based at least in part on data retrieved from a system that stores historical information;

obtaining a pipeline assessment, wherein the pipeline assessment is based at least in part on sales opportunities at a plurality of stages in a sales process;

determining an accuracy of the pipeline assessment and of the field assessment based at least in part on the historical assessment;

generating, using a computer processor, a triangulated forecast, wherein triangulated forecast is based at least in part on

an error correction based on a comparison of the field assessment to the historical assessment, and

the determined accuracy of the pipeline assessment; and

storing the triangulated forecast in a computer-readable storage medium.