Forecasting tool for communications network platforms

• US 7,814,206 B1
• Filed: 01/18/2008
• Issued: 10/12/2010
• Est. Priority Date: 10/05/2007
• Status: Expired due to Fees

• Current Assignee: AT&T Mobility II LLC (AT&T, Inc.)
• Original Assignee: AT&T Mobility II LLC (AT&T, Inc.)
• Inventors: Foldvik, Randolph G., Freeman, Sylvester Jr.
• Primary Examiner(s): Jacobs; Lashonda T
• Assistant Examiner(s): MCLEOD, MARSHALL M
• Application Number:
  US12/016,474
• Time in Patent Office: 998 Days
• Field of Search: 709/223, 709/224, 709/225, 709/226
• US Class Current: 709/226
• CPC Class Codes: H04L 41/0883 Semiautomatic configuration, e.g. proposals from system
• CPC Class Codes: H04L 41/145 involving simulating, designing, planning or modelling of a network
• CPC Class Codes: H04L 43/0817 by checking functioning

Abstract

A forecasting tool for planning a communications network having one or more platforms is disclosed. The forecasting tool is configured to obtain, associate, track, and correspond, capacity and demand across numerous platforms. Growth curves can be determined and associated with various platforms and platform locations. Anticipated growth events, and their corresponding growth curves, can be associated with any number of platforms. Various growth curves can be combined according to any scales, factors, or parameters, to create custom growth curves for any location or platform. Reconfigurations can be included in any analysis. The forecast tool analyzes each platform and can recommend reconfiguration if network platforms utilizations exceed any engineering limits or other thresholds.

Claims

1. A method for generating a network reconfiguration by forecasting network platform utilization, the method comprising:

an input/output (I/O) device obtaining historical utilization data associated with a network platform;

a computer processor, in executing computer-readable instructions stored on a computer-readable media, determining a projected natural change in demand based upon the historical utilization data of the network platform;

the I/O device obtaining pending network reconfiguration data associated with the network platform;

the I/O device obtaining data relating to anticipated externally-caused change in demand for the network platform;

the computer processor, in executing the computer-readable instructions, forecasting future utilization of the network platform based upon the projected natural change in demand, the pending network reconfiguration data, and the externally-caused change in demand;

the computer processor, in executing the computer-readable instructions, generating the recommended network reconfiguration based upon the forecasted network platform utilization, including identifying an effective date of a network platform resource, wherein the effective date is the date from which the network platform resource will be available to satisfy the forecasted network platform utilization;

the computer processor, in executing the computer-readable instructions, repeating the step of determining the projected natural change in demand, the forecasting step, and the generating step if a user changes the input data after the processor has begun any of the step of determining the projected natural change in demand, the forecasting step, and the generating step;

the computer processor, in executing the computer-readable instructions, determining whether utilization parameters for the network platform are exceeded;

the computer processor, in executing the computer-readable instructions, determining whether a reconfiguration override is present; and

the computer processor, in executing the computer-readable instructions, recommending the generated network reconfiguration if utilization parameters for the network platform are exceeded and the reconfiguration override is not present.

2. The method of claim 1, wherein the pending network reconfiguration data comprises data associated with the addition of a new network platform resource.

3. The method of claim 1, wherein the data relating to the anticipated externally-caused change in demand for the network platform comprises at least one growth curve.

4. The method of claim 1, wherein the computer processor, in executing the computer-readable instructions, forecasting the future utilization of the network platform based upon the projected natural change in demand, the pending network reconfiguration data, and the externally-caused change in demand comprises the computer processor forecasting future utilization of the network platform based upon a growth rate associated with the natural change in demand, the pending network reconfiguration data, and a growth rate associated with the externally-caused change in demand.

5. The method of claim 1, wherein the obtained externally-caused change in demand relates to a marketing campaign.

6. The method of claim 1, wherein the obtained externally-caused change in demand relates to a new product.

7. The method of claim 1, wherein the obtained externally-caused change in demand relates to a new data application.

8. A system for generating a recommended network reconfiguration by forecasting network platform utilization, the system comprising:

an input/output (I/O) device configured to obtain input data associated with a network platform, the input data comprising;

historical utilization data associated with a network platform;

pending network reconfiguration data associated with the network platform; and

data relating to anticipated externally-caused change in demand for the network platform;

a processor, in communication with the I/O device, configured to;

determine a projected natural change in demand based upon the historical utilization data of the network platform;

forecast future utilization of the network platform based upon the projected natural change in demand, the pending network reconfiguration data, and the externally-caused change in demand;

generate the recommended network reconfiguration based upon the forecasted network platform utilization, wherein the processor, in being configured to generate the recommended network reconfiguration, identifies an effective date of a network platform resource, wherein the effective date is the date from which the network platform resource will be available to satisfy the forecasted network platform utilization;

repeat the step of determining the projected natural change, the forecasting step, and the generating step if a user changes the input data after the processor has begun any of the step of determining projected natural change step, the forecasting step, and the generating step;

determine whether utilization parameters for the network platform are exceeded;

determine whether a reconfiguration override is present; and

if utilization parameters for the network platform are exceeded and the reconfiguration override is not present, recommend the formed network reconfiguration; and

a memory, in communication with the processor, the memory configured to store the input data.

9. The system of claim 8, wherein the historical utilization data of the input data comprises a growth curve derived from historical utilization of the network platform.

10. The system of claim 8, wherein the system further comprises a graphical user interface configured to enable a user to change the input data.

11. The system of claim 8, wherein the data relating to the anticipated externally-caused change in demand comprises a growth curve.

12. The system of claim 8, wherein the processor is further configured to complete the step of determining the projected natural change, the forecasting step, and the generating step more than one time.

13. The system of claim 8, wherein the externally-caused change in demand relates to a marketing campaign.

14. The system of claim 8, wherein the externally-caused change in demand relates to a new product.

15. The system of claim 8, wherein the externally-caused change in demand relates to a new product feature.

17. The system of claim 8, wherein the pending network reconfiguration data comprises data associated with a new network platform resource.

16. A computer-readable medium comprising computer-executable instructions that, when executed by a processor, perform the steps of:

obtaining historical utilization data associated with a network platform;

determining a projected natural change in demand based upon the historical utilization data of the network platform;

obtaining pending network reconfiguration data associated with the network platform;

obtaining data relating to anticipated externally-caused change in demand for the network platform;

forecasting future utilization of the network platform based upon the projected natural change in demand, the pending network reconfiguration data, and the externally-caused change in demand; and

generating a recommended network reconfiguration based upon the forecasted network platform utilization, including identifying an effective date of a network platform resource, wherein the effective date is the date from which the network platform resource will be available to satisfy the forecasted network platform utilization;

repeating the step of determining the projected natural change in demand, the forecasting step, and the generating step if a user changes the input data after the processor has begun any of the step of determining the projected natural change in demand, the forecasting step, and the generating step;

determining whether utilization parameters for the network platform are exceeded;

determining whether a reconfiguration override is present; and

if utilization parameters for the network platform are exceeded and the reconfiguration override is not present, recommending the generated network reconfiguration.

18. The computer-readable medium of claim 16, wherein the pending network reconfiguration data comprises data associated with addition of a new platform resource.

19. The computer-readable medium of claim 16, wherein the data relating to the anticipated externally-caused change in demand for the network platform comprises at least one growth curve.

20. The computer-readable medium of claim 16, wherein forecasting the future utilization of the network platform based upon the projected natural change in demand, the pending network reconfiguration data, and the externally-caused change in demand comprises forecasting future utilization of the network platform based upon a growth rate associated with the natural change in demand, the pending network reconfiguration data, and a growth rate associated with the externally-caused change in demand.

21. The computer-readable medium of claim 16, wherein the obtained externally-caused change in demand relates to a marketing campaign.

22. The computer-readable medium of claim 16, wherein the obtained externally-caused change in demand relates to a new product.

23. The computer-readable medium of claim 16, wherein the obtained externally-caused change in demand relates to a new data application.